With the first half now in the books, it’s time to take inventory on the OBP/OPS delights and surprises and forecast a bit for the second half.
Let’s start at the top with the undisputed OBP/OPS King of the first half of 2015, Bryce Harper. Harper has paced the league in both categories since late April and hasn’t looked back yet. Harper has a .464 OBP and a whopping 1.168 OPS. Only Miguel Cabrera and Paul Goldschmidt are really in the neighborhood with respect to either category. I do expect Harper’s blistering first half to be the best we’ll see from him. I don’t expect another 1.168 OPS going forward, but he should still wind up in the top spot or so in the season’s end, so don’t expect significant regression. Remember those commercials that showed Harper yucking it up next to the Bambino, in grainy, black and white? It seemed absurd at the time, and it still is, but Harper is at least holding up his end of the bargain when Sports Illustrated dubbed him “The Chosen One.” I’m all in on Harper for the second-half and in 2016 and beyond.
None of the names at the top of the OBP/OPS lists should be particularly shocking, with the usual suspects crowding the best spots, including guys like the aforementioned Harper, Goldy, and Miggy, as well as Anthony Rizzo, Mike Trout, and Giancarlo Stanton. A bit further down the list, a few names do standout which deserve mention – J.D. Martinez, Alex Rodriguez, and Adam Lind.
J.D. Martinez broke out last year after he left Houston for Detroit, really opening up some eyes. I was down on Martinez entering into the season, and early on, it looked like that hunch was going to be on point. Martinez posted a paltry .292 OBP in April but has since caught fire. Martinez posed a .371 in May, a .320 in June, and in 12 games of July ball, a .451. His OPS has steadily been rising as well, bringing him to a now very respectable .347 OBP and .922 OPS. His OPS ranks among the league leaders in baseball. With 25 home runs and 59 RBI, this guy rakes. I’ll happily admit that I was wrong on him. In fact, in one of my keeper leagues, an owner just traded a king’s ransom to pick-up a $7 Martinez (trading away a $50 Andrew McCutchen and a $45 David Price). Clearly, the general opinion of Martinez is very favorable right now. Given all of this, I’d be cautious in trading away too much to get him. He has been blistering hot of late, but this isn’t an elite player just yet. Don’t go overboard.
ARod gets a lot of talk elsewhere, so I just want to quickly say, wow. I am stunned by his return to form (not MVP ARod form, but All Star worthy form). ARod’s OPS sits just behind Martinez, and his .382 OBP is very useful. Unfortunately, I can’t see this continuing. Whether it is due to a flare up of his surgically repaired hips or simple statistical regression, I do think he will fall quite a bit in the second half. As such, ARod would be on my sell list if you can find a buyer.
I wrote about Adam Lind last week, so I’ll just quickly say that he has been an OBP/OPS waiver wire gem. His OPS is 15th best in baseball (.887) and his OBP is a solid .375. Like ARod, I could see Lind falling off a bit, but given that his name doesn’t tend to carry as much trade credit as an Alex Rodriguez, I would probably just continue rolling with him unless you found an eager buyer. Don’t sell him too short.
I’d like to throw some love for a few pesky infielders. Brock Holt (.379 OBP), Joe Panik (.372 OBP), Yunel Escobar (.369 OBP), and DJ LeMahieu (.365 OBP) have all been solid contributors this year. Of them, I like LeMahieu best, followed by Panik, Escobar, and Holt. All have maintained solid value in OBP formats and have varying degrees of upside. LeMahieu has the best situation, hitting in Coors Field in a strong Rockies lineup. I wrote on LeMahieu in one of my first posts on Razzball, and I’m still a fan. Panik has really come on, too, carving out a nice spot for himself as a serviceable fantasy second basemen. His ratios have taken a nice uptick this year, with his BB%, XBH%, HR/FB% all going up, while his SO% went down a tick. The biggest jump is in his slugging percentage, going up from .368 in 2014 to .448 in 2015. Escobar and Holt do less for me than the other two, but both have been nice surprises this season.
It’s been an exciting first half, with numerous rookies getting the call (Carlos Correa and Joc Pederson being the most impressive to me), some no-hitters (Max Scherzer and Chris Heston), and a pretty thrilling new format for the HR Derby (love the Toddfather and his .922 OPS). Who are you targeting for the second half in OBP/OPS formats? Who will bounce back from a rough first half? Who has been a fraud?
Best of luck for the stretch run, people!
