Billy Hamilton, 2015 Fantasy Baseball

From being a consumer of Razzball for a few years, I’m sure many of you already are in or know of OBP or On-base percentage league(s). Chances are if you’re playing in an OBP league, you’re playing with some seasoned teams. The metric has eased into MLB broadcasts and has become an important measurements as to a players overall worth more so than batting average. However the player gets on first, whether he leaves the bat on his shoulder or gets plunked, the idea is, it’s just the same as a base knock. If you play in competitive leagues, I advocate changing from AVG to OBP, for me it increased my understanding of different players who didn’t always get the recognition but are valuable to their teams.

When looking at outfield and considering OBP, you want to consider “does this player make a living beating out bunts?” Speed players generally have lower OBP because they want the ball in play so they can run out a single. It does not translate to all players, but as you look at the rankings, you’ll see players like Billy Hamilton or an Anthony Gose can compromise your OBP category in a Rotisserie league or H2H. Yes, you’re not drafting Hamilton for his OBP (or AVG depending what league you play in), but just know, if he gets 550 + ABs, that will hold down your team ranking in that category for the year unless the makeup of your other players compensate.

If you find OBP this confusing, here is a quick and dirty scale:

Great OBP	Above .375
Good OBP	.335 -.375
Meh	.315 – .335
Poor	Below

This chart below also highlights how much better Mike Trout and Andrew McCutchen are in an OBP format, they can provide .70-.80 point in OBP higher than the next tier and that’s significantly more than AVG. Using Grey’s top 100 at OF, here are players OBA, AVG, and OBA-AVG to demonstrate which outfielders stand out the most. The stats are compiled over the last 3 years and I would strongly encourage teams to always consider ancillary factors such as park adjustments (Carlos Gonzalez) or adjustment to major league pitching (Steven Souza, Joc Pederson). The walk rate (BB %) is an important barometer as well, only elite contact hitters can manage a good OBP % with a poor BB%. So take an OBP look at the Top-10 from Grey’s OF rankings:

Top-10 Three Year Average of OBP and AVG for Outfielders

Rank	Name	G	BB%	AVG	OBP	OBP-AVG	Notes
1	Mike Trout	453	12.60%	0.311	0.403	0.092	.377 last year more Swing for the fences
2	Giancarlo Stanton	384	13.00%	0.277	0.376	0.099	OBP up 30 points in 2014
3	Andrew McCutchen	460	11.60%	0.32	0.405	0.085
4	Adam Jones	481	3.80%	0.284	0.321	0.037	.311 OBP in 2014 receding
5	Carlos Gomez	432	6.20%	0.277	0.336	0.059	Rising each year, but still a bit low
6	Jose Bautista	365	14.50%	0.266	0.377	0.111	.403 last yr. 3yr high
7	Bryce Harper	357	10.40%	0.272	0.351	0.079	Consistent
8	Justin Upton	453	10.40%	0.271	0.35	0.079	Consistent
9	Yasiel Puig	252	9.60%	0.305	0.386	0.081	Very high OBP since coming to America
10	Corey Dickerson	200	7.70%	0.297	0.349	0.052	Up last year significantly +48

A lot to say here. Obviously we can see the excellent On-Base with Trout, Stanton, and McCutchen, but look at the drop off with Adam Jones. His OBP is not top 10 worthy and it should be consideration when drafting and it has been declining every year. Puig and Bautista get a bump for rising high over that .350 base line that frequent 5-10 ranks. It remains to be seen, but Cargo only posted a .292 OBP last year dropping off hard, perhaps due to numerous injuries that have had time to heal. Dickerson and Stanton saw significant increases last year.

Watch the walk rates taper a bit as we enter 10-20. This group has some pitfalls and you may want to look elsewhere position-wise for OBP while they are being drafted with a few exceptions. (Grey’s 11-20.)

Top-20 Three Year Average of OBP and AVG for Outfielders

Rank	Name	G	BB%	AVG	OBP	OBP-AVG	Notes
11	Carlos Gonzalez	315	9.00%	0.288	0.353	0.065	.292 OBP in 2014 was drastic falloff
12	Michael Brantley	456	7.60%	0.301	0.356	0.055	Rising each year
13	Jacoby Ellsbury	357	7.20%	0.282	0.336	0.054	Good for Speedster
14	Yoenis Cespedes	416	6.50%	0.263	0.316	0.053
15	Billy Hamilton	165	5.70%	0.254	0.297	0.043	Speed an OBP normally don’t mix
16	Ryan Braun	350	8.70%	0.295	0.362	0.067	Receding OBP line .390 in ’12, .324 last yr
17	Matt Kemp	329	8.50%	0.288	0.349	0.061
18	Nelson Cruz	427	7.80%	0.266	0.327	0.061
19	Starling Marte	317	5.10%	0.282	0.342	0.06
20	George Springer	78	11.30%	0.231	0.336	0.105	Could take a leap with that BB%

Carlos Gomez looks well below average, but his 2012 weighs everything because it dipped to .305. Last 2 years .338 and .356 make me optimistic he will not be a liability. Cespedes is the exact opposite, his OBP has tailed and the walk rate was under 6% in ’14. Billy Hamilton? If you draft Hamilton, you need to have 1-2 .380+ OBP to balance your numbers out, because he will sink an OBP ranking with a ton of ABs. Nelson Cruz is a little below par, and might fall into the 20’s, but the star here is George Springer. His .231 BABIP may have held back some AVG and OBP, he has the highest BB% in this group and I think it moves him up 7- 8 slots as a result. One last note on Braun, his OBP has tailed since ’12, but like Cargo, I expect a little bounce back with any health luck.

Now a deeper dive at the next 20. (Grey’s 21-40.)

Top-40 Three Year Average of OBP and AVG for Outfielders

Rank	Name	G	BB%	AVG	OBP	OBP-AVG	Notes
21	Jason Heyward	411	9.90%	0.266	0.345	0.079	Has better OBP skills than AVG
22	Wil Myers	175	9.10%	0.258	0.324	0.066
23	Jay Bruce	452	9.00%	0.245	0.314	0.069	Dropped .50 from previous yr. notably bad BABIP .269
24	Marcell Ozuna	223	6.00%	0.268	0.313	0.045
25	Christian Yelich	206	10.80%	0.285	0.365	0.08	Good BB% and OBP
26	Jorge Soler	24	6.20%	0.292	0.33	0.038	Small sample but minor league #s look good
28	Kole Calhoun	206	7.80%	0.271	0.329	0.058
29	Matt Holliday	454	11.10%	0.289	0.379	0.09	2nd 1/2 saved last yr, strength in BB%
30	Charlie Blackmon	278	4.10%	0.293	0.334	0.041
31	Hunter Pence	484	7.70%	0.271	0.33	0.059
32	Alex Gordon	473	9.20%	0.276	0.349	0.073	Good middle point player
33	Brett Gardner	309	8.80%	0.266	0.338	0.072
34	J.D. Martinez	322	6.50%	0.272	0.319	0.047	Below Avg.
35	Avisail Garcia	141	5.20%	0.272	0.314	0.042	Below Avg.
36	Khris Davis	200	6.10%	0.251	0.311	0.06
37	A.J. Pollock	243	7.10%	0.278	0.331	0.053
38	Leonys Martin	326	6.20%	0.264	0.315	0.051
39	Gregory Polanco	89	9.60%	0.235	0.307	0.072
40	Oswaldo Arcia	200	6.90%	0.241	0.302	0.061

Jason Heyward should be moved up a bit his OBP ticks up every year and he can take a walk. I think Bruce will rebound some, his .217 BABIP hurt a little, OBP number not in line with 2012-2013 expect .325. Ozuna just doesn’t take walks, what you see here is what you can expect. I think you have to be excited about Christian Yelich coming into the league and demonstrating an over a 10% BB rate, that’s extremely hard and telling of an elite eye. Holliday will yawnstipate to a good OBP, while Charlie Blackmon, JD Martinez, and Avisail Garcia will require good BABIP to counter a lack of walks.

The last block to be discussed is Grey’s 41-60 & 61-80.

Top-80 Three Year Average of OBP and AVG for Outfielders

Rank	Name	G	BB%	AVG	OBP	OBP-AVG	Notes
41	Lorenzo Cain	309	6.10%	0.276	0.323	0.047
42	Mookie Betts	52	9.90%	0.291	0.368	0.077
44	Danny Santana	101	4.40%	0.319	0.353	0.034	.405 BABIP
46	Brandon Moss	376	10.40%	0.254	0.34	0.086
47	Mark Trumbo	391	7.30%	0.247	0.302	0.055
48	Ben Zobrist	460	12.10%	0.272	0.362	0.09	Patient hitter for many positions
49	Josh Harrison	307	3.70%	0.285	0.321	0.036	.353 BABIP most likely below AVG. this yr in OBP
50	Melky Cabrera	340	6.80%	0.311	0.357	0.046
51	Alex Rios	444	4.90%	0.288	0.324	0.036
52	Shin-Soo Choo	432	12.60%	0.272	0.383	0.111	No one takes a bean like Choo and good BB%
53	Joc Pederson	18	23.70%	0.143	0.351	0.208	OBP machine as an MVP in the minors
54	Steven Souza	21	11.50%	0.13	0.231	0.101	Great OBP in the minors
55	Rusney Castillo	10	7.50%	0.333	0.4	0.067
56	Domonic Brown	339	7.40%	0.251	0.307	0.056	.269 BABIP but a .285 ’14 OBP is brutal
57	Marlon Byrd	349	5.20%	0.269	0.315	0.046
58	Torii Hunter	426	4.80%	0.301	0.339	0.038
59	Jayson Werth	357	12.30%	0.303	0.394	0.091	Always a great eye and OBP if healthy
60	Curtis Granderson	376	11.40%	0.229	0.322	0.093
61	Carlos Beltran	405	8.40%	0.269	0.331	0.062
62	Nick Markakis	419	8.50%	0.279	0.342	0.063
63	Desmond Jennings	394	9.20%	0.248	0.323	0.075
64	Nori Aoki	438	7.80%	0.287	0.353	0.066
65	Dexter Fowler	378	13.00%	0.28	0.378	0.098	Great BB%
66	Rajai Davis	384	5.40%	0.267	0.314	0.047
67	Coco Crisp	377	10.60%	0.256	0.332	0.076
68	Ben Revere	363	3.80%	0.301	0.331	0.03	Not getting Ben for OBP, but it is not much better than AVG.
69	Anthony Gose	202	7.60%	0.234	0.301	0.067
70	Denard Span	428	7.30%	0.288	0.341	0.053
71	Michael Morse	321	5.40%	0.266	0.313	0.047
72	Steve Pearce	207	10.60%	0.273	0.359	0.086	Good OBP numbers throughout career
73	Michael Cuddyer	280	8.10%	0.307	0.362	0.055	No longer in Coors
74	Martin Prado	454	6.80%	0.289	0.339	0.05
75	Logan Morrison	277	9.00%	0.245	0.319	0.074

In these mid-to-late round plays, there are a few players with value, some that will hurt, and one to avoid.

Value: Mookie Betts, read Grey’s latest on him here, and look out he’s in good company with Joc Pederson, Steven Souza, and Rusney Castillo. For now I’m suggesting to play it careful, many of these batting skills cannot be trusted to translate immediately out from the minors, but Souza and Pederson dominated their AAA stints with elite batting eye skills. Think Betts and Castillo can both benefit from Fenway, and would just monitor the playing time and AB situations. Some earn OBP the hard way, Shin-Soo Choo earns a OBP one plunking at a time in the Craig Biggio body armor lean-in mold. His OBP #’s should put him in a top 40 spot. I’d consider the veterans Ben Zobrist, Jason Werth, Steve Pearce, and maybe even post-COpRSe Michael Cuddyer worth a slight bump due to BB%.

It will hurt: Dominic Brown, he was in a complete funk last year and BB% and OBP came way down, I’d expect a bounce, but not sure how high. You’re probably not drafting Torii Hunter this year, but he’s even worse in an OBP format, stay away.

Avoid: Mark Trumbo, he’s dipped into the under .300 OBP in both 2013 and 2014, don’t Trumbo your OBP category.

Please remember these are three year OBP and AVG numbers, and I want to thank everyone for reading the mini-novel. Remember if you think I’m (or OBP) just bunk, join one of my RCL leagues join any under organizer “Blues” and crush me in AVG! If you have other PBP positional questions please come and peruse Razzball’s other positional OBP coverage here: OBP C, OBP 3B, OBP SS.