Greetings! Hope everybody had a great weekend and a profitable out there in DFS land and wagering land if you do that as well. Hot and Cold for me this week as some teams popped this week (Hello Braves and Giants I see you) that I didn’t have too much exposure too so no bueno there if you didn’t have any players on those two teams. I have been doing a lot of diversifying players and looking at some park factors and umpiring trends as well to try and make sure I am giving myself the best opportunities to cash in on some nuances that other players might not be utilizing in their lineups. It’s been a mixed bag honestly but it’s still pretty new so I’m ok with the result so far. Just some things to think about when building your own lineups. All right let’s get to it, shall we?
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My highlight player for today’s mini slate (8 games today) is Spencer Turnbull ($8,600). I know he’s the one of many that have thrown a no-hitter this year(crazy right) but he seemed to be on the verge of something special coming into this year and was a sneaky draft pick in the later rounds this past season. He didn’t get the pub because of the team he plays for but savvy owners knew about him and did their due diligence in drafting him. Looking under the hood of what might be driving his success this year is Turnbull is getting exceptional movement in his sinker/slider combo which has been working so well for many pitchers this year as well (See Rodon and Wood). I have been touting these 5 pitch mix pitchers every week who command well because the pitchers are still ahead of the hitters at this point and these pitchers are keeping the hitters off balance because they have to guess is the pitch coming in at 94-95 high in the zone or is that sinker/slider combo coming at me low and away at 85. Quite the dilemma if you’re a hitter. Turnbull in particular isn’t allowing hard hits (only 2 HR’s and 6 barreled-up balls out of 98 batted balls). He had a little trouble last year commanding pitches but this year he is looking just fine allowing an average of 1 BB a start and just under a K an inning. Turnbull faces an Indian team this year which just lost Franmil Reyes for an extended period and the rest of the lineup isn’t that great. The Indians haven’t faced Turnbull this year yet which is another advantage for a pitcher and he probably slept in his own bed last night since the Tigers were on the road and flew into Detroit last night after their game against the Royals. Coming off a no-hitter is always tough since the expectations are sky high but the recipe is there for a great game for Turnbull and a win. I think Turnbull goes a solid 6+ innings 1 ER 1 BB 7 K’s and gets the win. I don’t think he will be the top pitcher owned as you have Snell, Woodruff, Rogers, Lynn, and Means on the same slate and DFS players might be gun shy about playing a pitcher coming off a no-hitter. I’m not worried about that and think he is locked in right now and is my play.
SP- Lance Lynn ($10,000) Can’t go wrong with Lynn here. The floor is pretty safe with him and he’s having a great year so far. Lynn is venturing out of the AL Central today against the Cardinals who have to travel to Chicago today so I think Lynn will be rested up for the matchup today. Lynn has a steady floor of 5-6 INN 2 BB 8 K and is usually in line for the win (4-1 so far) but you want to see him pitch a little deeper into the game. If Lynn limits his pitch count as his control is good but not great this year he can pitch into the 7th which will give you those added points you are looking for. Still, a safe solid play today and will be heavily owned.
1B- Miguel Sano ($2,800) I usually don’t make it a habit of recommending under .200 avg hitters but Sano has been improving late and smashed a grand slam against the Angels last week and followed it up with another HR two days later against the Indians. His walk rate also has improved from last year which indicates he is seeing the ball well and with that should come to some more balls in play. Sano faces the Orioles and John Means today who is having a good year but could be in line with some regression today and Sano knows how to barrel up a baseball. I think he gets one out on Means today and not many people will be on him.
2B- Jonathan Villar ($2,800) Villar has been hitting the ball well of late and is in the lineup every day these days for the depleted Mets lineup. He has that speed element as well and popped a couple of HR’s last week against the Braves. The Mets face Austin Gomber and the Rockies today at home and this could be a nice game for the offense. Nice cheap plug-in player here today.
3B- Kyle Seager ($3,000) Seager is barreling up baseballs so far this year and is due for a 4-4 game with a HR. Seager has hit 7 of his 9 HR against a righty and driven in 24 RBI’s so far against a right-handed pitcher. He faces Montas today and the Athletics who he is familiar with and although he doesn’t have a HR against Frankie yet I think today’s the day for reckoning.
SS-Francisco Lindor ($2,900) I’m targeting Gomber again with Lindor. Lindor is definitely off to a slow start with the Mets much to their dismay but there are signs he is breaking through. Lindor had a couple of multiple-hit games last week and can reward you with the SB when he gets on. Lindor’s BB rate is still very good and he doesn’t strike out often so it’s a matter of time before those hits are going into the OF and he is getting on base and hopefully getting you those steals.
OF- Ramon Laureano ($3,600) Ramon has been hitting the ball extremely well of late and is barreling up the ball with authority. He also steals bases and is becoming quite the useful DFS player lately and frankly is fun to watch. Laureano hits lefties well (.382 avg this year) and what do you know faces a lefty today in Kikuchi. Not much else to say except make sure he is in your lineup today.
OF- Chad Pinder ($2,200) Going back to those A’s with this one as Pinder has resurfaced in Oakland and has been starting of late. Pinder is 4-9 so far against lefties and I think he matches up well against Kikuchi today who is prone to giving up hard hits especially against righties who have hit 8 of 9 HR against Kikuchi.
OF– Robbie Grossman ($2,900) Robbie is a solid floor player today against a rookie pitcher in Hentges. He hits at the top of the order and provides a bat with good plate skills and seems to be always on base. Robbie had a great series this weekend against the Royals with a 3 hit game as well as a 2 hit game and is seeing the ball well.
UT- Fernando Tatis Jr. ($4,400) Best hitter on the slate by far. If you rostered a couple of players above, I’m sure you have the room to fit Tatis Jr. in your lineup. Not much to say other than a multiple HR day any day Tatis Jr. is in your lineup is not a far-fetched outcome.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Cleveland vs. Detroit could see some showers nearing game time which could lead to a delay in the game. Keep an eye on it as it gets closer.
Doing Lines in Vegas
Rays -110 vs Toronto
Stripling on the mound for Toronto I’ll target every time.
