Good morning folx! Time for your cherished morning article about tossing your money at the wall and hoping something sticks. Oh wait, I thought I was talking about my New York Times subscription. ENYWHEY. I’ve been feverishly working on a few new projects to help with my seasonal rankings, and I’ve also got a DFS project in the works that combines a few different projection systems. Which ones? I’ll never tell! Mostly because I’m not entirely sure the success of my new system. But if you’re looking for edges (don’t Google that), then come along and visit me after the jump for some interesting perspectives on who you should be playing.
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The Slate: Slate’s full! Today’s the perfect day to let Rudy’s DFS Bot optimize a crap ton of lineups and enter into those big GPPs for your DFS glory. Plus, it’s a holiday weekend, so maybe a few less players to compete against.
Clayton Kershaw ($11,000): Chalk, chalk, chalk. Studies show that the chalk pitchers return value, and that both GPPs and cash game outcomes are improved when using the best pitcher on the slate. So, set Kershaw to 30-50% of your exposure depending on your faith in his abilities, and let him do his thing.
Yu Darvish ($11,000): Chalk. If you’re off of Kershaw, then go Darvish. Slight chance of rain in this one, but the Phillies are slated for a mere 3.5 runs against the Padres at the time of writing. If you’re doing cash games, you might just pair Kershaw and Darvish together and take one of my cheap hitting combos below.
Tarik Skubal ($8700): All right, here’s your contrarian star pitcher. Rudy’s got him over 10 K/9, and he’s facing off against the White Sox, who send Dallas Keuchel to the mound. Keuchel can’t strike anybody out, so Detroit stands a chance at a win here. Skubal’s got an 11.6 K/9 over the past month and has greatly exceeded his projections in 3/5 starts. Volatility? Go for it! That’s what being contrarian is all about. Skubal will be a low-owned option because the White Sox feature a pretty solid lineup and are the heavy Vegas favorites in the game. But even the best batters don’t get on base 60% of the time…go with the variance!
Jake Odorizzi ($7200): I’ve been digging through the BAT rest of season rankings, and I was stunned to see Odorizzi in the top 30 for strikeout artists. Like, if he stays healthy, sure, Odorizzi’s a good pitcher. Top 30 in Ks though? Well, his K-BB% is the same as John Means (remember him?) and his SIERA is about the same as JT Brubaker and Frankie Montas (that’s pretty acceptable). Odorizzi’s not cheap, but he’s not going to be heavily rostered. I like Odorizzi as a difference-maker for GPP lineups.
Aaron Judge ($3600) / Giancarlo Stanton ($3500) / Gary Sanchez ($3000) / Rougned Odor(?) ($2200): Ladies and three gentlemen, I have a new approach to DFS, and the approach is called “Donging.” Yeah, OK, I suppose that was the approach all along. But I’m using Carlos Marcano’s Q metric (don’t ask me why he named it after conspiracy theorists) as part of my new model, and the Q model incorporates a ton of statcast metrics. Statcast metrics are descriptive, of course; they don’t predict anything. But Rudy’s metrics — which do predict things — agree: Stanton and Judge are top 20 — if not top 5 — hitters right now. We’re just waiting for the variance to kick in. On Fanduel, they’re moderately priced in the middle of the pack, which is stunning value for players looking to get an edge on the competition. From a Statcast perspective, Sanchez is just ahead of Judge, meaning the Yankees are going to have a huge GPP day soon. Or eventually. So, whether it be today, tomorrow, or next week, keep running these three guys out until they click on the same day. Also I tossed Rougned Odor in there because he’s dirt cheap and showing top 50 hitting skills in the Bronx. If he plays, start him.
Darin Ruf ($2200)/ Austin Slater ($2400) / Alex Dickerson ($2500): Giants may be big, but they can also be cheap! Ruf and Slater sit in the 100-125 in my hitter breakdown range, but they’re in the top 40 in terms of cheapness. They’re the kinds of guys you toss in to make a lineup complete. Dickerson has a higher value in my rankings and one of the most “balanced” profiles; he’s in Rudy’s top 50 batters for the week, and he’s one of the 20 cheapest bats out there. In other words, here’s a trio of batters that you pair with any of your other stacks and let them provide support.
Dylan Carlson ($3400) / Matt Carpenter ($3000) / Harrison Bader ($3200) / Paul Goldschmidt ($4300) / Paul deJong ($3800): Well, the Cardinals are in Coors, what did you expect? Coors comes with a price, of course, but this group of batters sits in the upper third of statcast production and projection metrics while also being one of the cheapest stacks available, with each batter being in the cheapest 30% of players out there. The park factor on Coors is about 20%, and it’s tough to overlook any shootout that might be looming. Personally, if you’re going with a Cardinals stack, I think you’ll need to toss in the Jays or Yankees for some absolute crushing upside. There’s too many games on the slate to say that the classic power hitters will all fail, but a Cards stack + Vladdy/Teoscar/etc could do wonders for you.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains:
Possible rain in New York for the subway series but it’s an early game, so you’ll know if it’s going to be problematic for your lineups before most of the games start. If the Yankees/Mets delay or don’t play, the Blue Jays are still a stunningly affordable stack given their HR prowess. High pressure almost everywhere…except Coors Field.
Doing Lines in Vegas:
Minnesota’s at +132 against KC as of this writing, which may change as the bets flow in. That’s an inefficient line. Baltimore is at +180 at the time of writing against the Angels. Angels’ starter Alex Cobb is good, but not that good.
