Now that it’s May, we can stop saying “It’s only April” when we look at our teams and get frustrated that our guys aren’t producing as expected. This is a great time to make some moves, however, as the stats are starting to get “sticky” in that there are enough accrued to make some judgments on guys. We have the opportunity to get some struggling bats that an owner may be ready to give up on before the anchor gets too heavy. Nobody is moving Aaron Judge, Matt Olson, Corey Seager, Vladimir Guerrero Jr, or Corbin Carroll on the cheap (though maybe in redraft, they should with Corbin). You don’t need xStats to tell you that those guys are likely to approach career norms–water usually finds its level. The middle to bottom tier of your starting bats, however, is ripe for improvement. Here are a few suggestions for such moves. Statistics were pulled in the AM on May 2.
My strongest “Go get him!” comes in the form of NYM OF Brandon Nimmo. Ranked 162nd on the Razzball player rater, Nimmo’s .206 AVG, .346 SLG, and .327 wOBA don’t scream “Go get him!” with the same vigor that I pretend-screamed with above, but the expected rates here speak to his Quality of Contact (QoC) and give me a ton of confidence that a big uptick in his production is coming. Nimmo’s xBA is .296, a world away from the .206 he’s currently sporting, and his xSLG is even prettier, jumping .184 points to an expected .530. The Statcast sliders on Nimmo’s average EV, Barrel%, HardHit%, and SweetSpot% are redder than Ohio State football coach Ryan Day’s face when he sees a winged helmet (#GoBlue), and he’s kept his pristine eye, sporting a 95th percentile BB%. His launch angle is nearly a career-high, so he’s not hitting worm burners that deflate his outcomes. There’s almost nothing in the profile to suggest that his current results are what you should expect going forward, so expect the baseball gods to flip things in his favor soon; hopefully, you’ve acquired him by then. If you already own him, take heart that he’s on the cusp of strongly buffeting your team’s stats.
The Japanese SP imports received much hype and anticipation in the offseason, and rightfully so, given their results so far this season. However, Korean League star and SFG OF Jung Hoo Lee has been no slouch himself, and I see rosier days ahead for Lee as well. Lee comes in at 266th on the Razzball Player Rater, but his .259 AVG should be over .300 according to the xBA, while his batted ball inputs portend more power than his current .339 SLG (xSLG is .425). While nobody expected big power to be a part of Lee’s game when he arrived in the US, fantasy owners should enjoy more gains than they’ve received from him so far in that department. He’s 74th percentile in average EV and 75th percentile in HardHit%, and his eye is every bit as advertised, as he’s 99th percentile in both K% and BB%. His Pull% is in line with guys with more power, but unfortunately, ground balls rarely get over the fence, and Lee’s 49% GB% is cause for concern. Buy him for the AVG uptick that’s coming (and that you bargained for when drafting him), and stay for the modest power improvement as well.
To the infield now, and while we’ve discussed Japan and Korea, let’s look at France. No, not their ballplayers because the only thing they’re good at exporting is surrender flags. I’m talking about Mariners IF Ty France, he of the .253 BA and .354 SLG. The Mariners need more punch in their offense, and obviously, J-Rod needs to get going. Some help could come from France, though, as his QoC metrics say he should be hitting nearly .300 (.296 xBA) and slugging almost .500 (.488 xSLG). His HardHit% is 85th percentile and his SweetSpot% is 95th percentile. Combine those with a career-high avg EV, and it’s easy to see the production being worth of a CI spot in 12-team leagues. If you’ve read me this year, one of my articles focused on Pull% and that power comes from pulled fly balls; France is sporting the lowest Pull% of his career, so he’s not even getting the trade-off of perhaps a higher average due to spraying the ball around or “hitting it where they’re pitching it” to him. He’s got a career-best chase rate, but a career-lowest Swing%, so some more aggressiveness and a focus on pulling the ball would see his standard stats fall more in line with his xStats.
Let’s finish with some quick-hitters here:
- It’s weird drafting Jake Cronenworth for 1B because his profile has never fit what you look for from a corner infielder, but Crone is in the zone this year, and he’s not coming out of it. For as good as he’s been, xStats say he should be *even better* and not just a little. Buy high as a top-10 1B rest-of-season.
- Two players with the largest discrepancies between actual and xStats are Tigers rookie Colt Keith and Reds sophomore Christian Encarnacion-Strand. Though the xStats say a lot of growth should be coming, that growth still would put them at pretty sucky territory. CES treats the right side of the diamond as purely theoretical, as his spray chart is pretty pull-heavy (good for power!) but his QoC metrics don’t give me much hope that he’s going to be very viable for managers this year in any league size. Keith needs to fire the clubhouse attendant who is switching out his bats with pool noodles. I believe in him long-term, but in redraft, both of these players may be drops in shallow/12-teamers. I can see sticking with CES in 15-teamers, but even there, I think it’s defensible.
- Whatever is in Randy Arozarena’s Rice Bowl, he should not order that again. Even with the gains his xStats say he should have, it’s still an awful stat line and if you can use his name to get a Nimmo in redrafts, I’d be all over that because you’d probably get Nimmo-plus something in the trade.
