Edward Olivares, 2023 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper

I cackled just writing the title. Hey, going for Edward Olivares is that Dayton Moore was fired…

On his way out the door, Dayton Moore asked if he could demote and promote one more time Edward Olivares.

— Razzball (@Razzball) September 21, 2022

…the rest can fall into place, right? A sneak peek behind the Wizard’s curtain. I was looking for a late outfielder to write a sleeper post on, and there were, like, fifteen guys in the span of 20 average draft picks that interested me. Around Edward Olivares was also Jose Siri — Siri, what is a fantasy baseball sleeper? Forget it, I’ll ask Alexa; Bubba Thompson — I like him a lot, but playing time?; Dylan Carlson and Jorge Soler — bounce backs?; Tommy Pham — way undervalued, but how many fantasy football-smacking-Joc jokes can I make? Well, a lot, but I didn’t feel like it; Luis Garcia, the Rocky III version; Luke Voit — surprising strong peripherals, but kinda yawnstipating, and him and Pham need someone to sign them; Austin Meadows, Jake Fraley, Justin Turner–Seriously, there’s so many interesting names around Edward Olivares, but there’s just not enough time for a sleeper post for all of them, but I will cover them all in rankings. Last year, Edward Olivares went 4/2/.286 in 161 ABs. In his major league career, he has 358 ABs and has hit 12 homers and stolen four bags. *making the Larry David meh face* Hmm, maybe there was a reason Dayton Moore promoted and sent down Olivares once a week as a ritual. Like 9 1/2 Weeks, only instead of rubbing strawberries on Dayton Moore’s lips, he had his assistant rub news clippings of Olivares being sent down. Dated reference? Yes, but also I like the idea of Dayton Moore getting a Google alert and reading about himself in a 9 1/2 Weeks setting, so I will allow it. So, what can we expect from Edward Olivares for 2023 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Psyche! Before we get into the Edward Olivares sleeper post, just wanted to announce that I’ve begun to roll out my 2023 fantasy baseball rankings on our Patreon. Lucky you (if you pay the $10/month). Also, Rudy’s begun to roll out his 2023 fantasy baseball projections. It’s version 1.0 and there’s usually about 4500 versions but just wanted to let you know. Anyway II, the Edward Olivares sleeper:

Okay, I wouldn’t be here if I thought Edward Olivares’s 350 at-bat stat line was something like 12/4. You better believe that right now, said like Gordon Ramsay. Why does he always say that? It’s so funny every time I hear him utter it. So, Edward Olivares’s top line from the minors was 15/12/.313 in only 66 Triple-A games in 21 after 20. Last year was kinda wonky, because of a 60-day IL stint, due to a severely strained quad. Would just put aside everything from last year, and focus on the previous year.

Edward Olivares is not Victor Robles. I want you to tuck that into your brain cheek like you’re a chipmunk that went into a transporter with Einstein, so you became The Fly-slash-Albert Einstein chipmunk. Edward Olivares is five-tool — remember what’s in your brain cheek. The power and speed both grade out to 50. (His arm in the outfield is even better, but that’s irrelevant for our purposes.) Each year he has a less-than-ideal Launch Angle (7.2 on average), and that makes me think he might be more line drive than big-time power guy. How’sever, he did have 36% fly ball rates and higher in the, uh, lower minors, so maybe he swings for the fences. He’s clearly capable of a 14% or a tad higher HR/FB, so…*does math in head, silently carries the one, complains about back, puts the one down on a chair for someone else to carry*…and that makes him Carlos Correa for power. That’s not a ton of power. That’s between 19-23 homers. Correa has a career 33% fly ball rate and usually around a 14% HR/FB, though it was a little higher some years in Houston. Either way, I stand by that comparison. Olivares drops bombs like Correa, call him Kim-Jong-un.

Thankfully, the speed is much better than Correa’s. Think about that for a second. Correa, a near-top 100 player every year — different position, but still — and Olivares is going around 275th overall. Um, giddy up, pardner. Any hoo! Olivares has around a 29 ft/sec sprint speed, which kinda means nothing, but there ya go. He also stole 35 bags in Double-A, which means even less, but you add two “Doesn’t Mean Anything”s together and it means a little something. He’s fast, take my word for it. Steals have as much to do with a club’s desire to steal as a player’s ability, but the Royals have always been a club that runs. They have a new manager, so maybe that changes, but Olivares *can* steal. Vibes change, hopefully priorities don’t.

Edward Olivares routinely made better-than-average contact in the minors, and hit .286 last year. Possibly the biggest strike against your brain cheek nugget about Victor Robles and Olivares. They’re nowhere near the same mostly for this reason. Olivares could hit .300 with a little luck (okay, a lot of luck, but Robles isn’t even sniffing it with luck), and, with neutral luck, Olivares is a .270 hitter. Olivares’s chain was yanked more than a rapper crowdsurfing, between being sent back and forth to the minors, and Olivares still hit .260 so far in his career. He’s way closer to a .300 hitter than he is a .220 hitter. He made better-than-average contact, lower swinging strike rate and swings about 4% lower than the MLB average. A smart team, which I’m not sure I quantify Royals as, could hit Olivares leadoff or 2nd, and move Michael Jordan Melendez down. Though, Melendez walks, so maybe that’s okay. Either way, Olivares could move up in the order with an injury, or a new manager wanting to make a mark. For 2023, I’ll give Edward Olivares projections of 63/19/76/.272/16 in 476 ABs with upside in every single category, and a huge sleeper.