I cackled just writing the title. Hey, going for Edward Olivares is that Dayton Moore was fired…
On his way out the door, Dayton Moore asked if he could demote and promote one more time Edward Olivares.
— Razzball (@Razzball) September 21, 2022
…the rest can fall into place, right? A sneak peek behind the Wizard’s curtain. I was looking for a late outfielder to write a sleeper post on, and there were, like, fifteen guys in the span of 20 average draft picks that interested me. Around Edward Olivares was also Jose Siri — Siri, what is a fantasy baseball sleeper? Forget it, I’ll ask Alexa; Bubba Thompson — I like him a lot, but playing time?; Dylan Carlson and Jorge Soler — bounce backs?; Tommy Pham — way undervalued, but how many fantasy football-smacking-Joc jokes can I make? Well, a lot, but I didn’t feel like it; Luis Garcia, the Rocky III version; Luke Voit — surprising strong peripherals, but kinda yawnstipating, and him and Pham need someone to sign them; Austin Meadows, Jake Fraley, Justin Turner–Seriously, there’s so many interesting names around Edward Olivares, but there’s just not enough time for a sleeper post for all of them, but I will cover them all in rankings. Last year, Edward Olivares went 4/2/.286 in 161 ABs. In his major league career, he has 358 ABs and has hit 12 homers and stolen four bags. *making the Larry David meh face* Hmm, maybe there was a reason Dayton Moore promoted and sent down Olivares once a week as a ritual. Like 9 1/2 Weeks, only instead of rubbing strawberries on Dayton Moore’s lips, he had his assistant rub news clippings of Olivares being sent down. Dated reference? Yes, but also I like the idea of Dayton Moore getting a Google alert and reading about himself in a 9 1/2 Weeks setting, so I will allow it. So, what can we expect from Edward Olivares for 2023 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
Psyche! Before we get into the Edward Olivares sleeper post, just wanted to announce that I’ve begun to roll out my 2023 fantasy baseball rankings on our Patreon. Lucky you (if you pay the $10/month). Also, Rudy’s begun to roll out his 2023 fantasy baseball projections. It’s version 1.0 and there’s usually about 4500 versions but just wanted to let you know. Anyway II, the Edward Olivares sleeper:
Okay, I wouldn’t be here if I thought Edward Olivares’s 350 at-bat stat line was something like 12/4. You better believe that right now, said like Gordon Ramsay. Why does he always say that? It’s so funny every time I hear him utter it. So, Edward Olivares’s top line from the minors was 15/12/.313 in only 66 Triple-A games in 21 after 20. Last year was kinda wonky, because of a 60-day IL stint, due to a severely strained quad. Would just put aside everything from last year, and focus on the previous year.
Edward Olivares is not Victor Robles. I want you to tuck that into your brain cheek like you’re a chipmunk that went into a transporter with Einstein, so you became The Fly-slash-Albert Einstein chipmunk. Edward Olivares is five-tool — remember what’s in your brain cheek. The power and speed both grade out to 50. (His arm in the outfield is even better, but that’s irrelevant for our purposes.) Each year he has a less-than-ideal Launch Angle (7.2 on average), and that makes me think he might be more line drive than big-time power guy. How’sever, he did have 36% fly ball rates and higher in the, uh, lower minors, so maybe he swings for the fences. He’s clearly capable of a 14% or a tad higher HR/FB, so…*does math in head, silently carries the one, complains about back, puts the one down on a chair for someone else to carry*…and that makes him Carlos Correa for power. That’s not a ton of power. That’s between 19-23 homers. Correa has a career 33% fly ball rate and usually around a 14% HR/FB, though it was a little higher some years in Houston. Either way, I stand by that comparison. Olivares drops bombs like Correa, call him Kim-Jong-un.
Thankfully, the speed is much better than Correa’s. Think about that for a second. Correa, a near-top 100 player every year — different position, but still — and Olivares is going around 275th overall. Um, giddy up, pardner. Any hoo! Olivares has around a 29 ft/sec sprint speed, which kinda means nothing, but there ya go. He also stole 35 bags in Double-A, which means even less, but you add two “Doesn’t Mean Anything”s together and it means a little something. He’s fast, take my word for it. Steals have as much to do with a club’s desire to steal as a player’s ability, but the Royals have always been a club that runs. They have a new manager, so maybe that changes, but Olivares *can* steal. Vibes change, hopefully priorities don’t.
Edward Olivares routinely made better-than-average contact in the minors, and hit .286 last year. Possibly the biggest strike against your brain cheek nugget about Victor Robles and Olivares. They’re nowhere near the same mostly for this reason. Olivares could hit .300 with a little luck (okay, a lot of luck, but Robles isn’t even sniffing it with luck), and, with neutral luck, Olivares is a .270 hitter. Olivares’s chain was yanked more than a rapper crowdsurfing, between being sent back and forth to the minors, and Olivares still hit .260 so far in his career. He’s way closer to a .300 hitter than he is a .220 hitter. He made better-than-average contact, lower swinging strike rate and swings about 4% lower than the MLB average. A smart team, which I’m not sure I quantify Royals as, could hit Olivares leadoff or 2nd, and move Michael Jordan Melendez down. Though, Melendez walks, so maybe that’s okay. Either way, Olivares could move up in the order with an injury, or a new manager wanting to make a mark. For 2023, I’ll give Edward Olivares projections of 63/19/76/.272/16 in 476 ABs with upside in every single category, and a huge sleeper.
How would you rank the following closers? Devin Williams,Felix Bautista, and David Bednar.
in a 12 team keeper roto league, would you keep any of the above closers over William Contreras?
Thank you and love your sleeper picks once again! Happy New Year!
Happy New Year! I’m still in process of doing my RP rankings, but how I think they’ll shake out: Bautista, Devin, Bednar…I would keep Felix over Contreras
Just checked Rudy’s rankings on the 3 closers. Devin 9,Felix 11 and Bednar 12. Pretty funny so close. Thanks.
Ah, yeah…No problem
Gray, when do you start dropping your rankings for us plebes not on Patreon?
Aiming for Jan 16th
Awesome! The official first day of fantasy baseball season for me. Looking forward to seeing them all again this season.
10-team, H2H categories.
Which 6 are you keeping, or packaging for a preseason trade/upgrade?
– Julio Rodriguez
– Kyle Tucker
– Yordan Alvarez
– Mookie Betts (OF only)
– Wander Franco
– Luis Robert
– Jazz Chisholm
– Dylan Cease
– Zach Wheeler
– Zac Gallen
– Spencer Strider
– Julio Rodriguez
– Kyle Tucker
– Yordan Alvarez
– Mookie Betts (OF only
Strider are pretty much locks…Robert and Wander would prolly get you most in trades
Prefer Strider over Cease & Wheeler if I’m picking one SP?
I like Cease a lot, but I prefer Strider by a hair (lip)…Definitely over Wheeler…
Cease and Strider are super close if you have a preference
Braves better team though
Great article! He’s definitely a target in my 10 team Dynasty league. Our league puts a lot of value on prospects and rookies. We can keep players the year they lose their rookie eligibility, but have to lock them in for 4 years. I have some good ones, but not sure on a couple. Rutschman is a for sure yes and I’m leaning yes on Cruz and Abrams. I also have Miranda and Bello, who I’m not too sure on. Which of these 4 would you lock up for 4 years? For perspective, roughly 20-23 major league players and 8-10 prospects are kept by each team.
Adley, Cruz, Abrams and Miranda
Awesome! Thanks Grey!
Nice! He was one of my dart throws in the Razzball NFBC DC draft where I also didn’t realize how quickly OF falls out. Hopefully he is a guy I feel comfortable locking in to one of my 5 OF spots!
Nice, I like that flyer!
14 Team Dynasty Keep Forever
Can you rank your top 10 from the list below please sir? IL was completely full so I have to make some cuts.
Thank you sir!
Last one….pick 5 to keep please and thank you!
No problem, but I just realized I missed Olivares in the last question
Urias, Manzardo, Steer, Carp, Olivares or Castro
I’ve added this guy and dropped more times than I would like to admit. I will definitely try again. I will say the Royals never seemed to like him for some reason. He also seemed to get hurt every time he finally got a chance. So let’s hope his luck changes in 2023.
Yeah, same, but that’s bc the Royals dropped him more times
Glad you wrote this keeper/sleeper article on Olivares! I’ve lined him up to be one of my keepers, but was flabbergasted by a complete oversight of the guy by the perts…..except for one!
You the man!!!
Thanks for the excellent insights!
PS: I see royals line-up going:
Olivares, Melendez,Witt, VP, Perez
Yeah, it might…I don’t see how Olivares isn’t a starter, at least…Maybe hitting 6th to start, but could move up
*and should move up
Ha, nice! Thanks!
a. Huge sleeper, as you say. Love him to bits.
b. Jakkers got my last Carlin quote of the day for 2022. Jerry Seinfeld quote of the day coming when ST starts! In between I’m on vacation (50%) and prepping quotes (50%). Like if Newman plays (is he signed anywhere, haha of course he is, he signed with the Reds on November 18, 2022) and hits for the cycle (never) or goes 4/4 (possible) the quote will be…’NEWMAN’! But that’ll be rare. Newman still searching for his 2019 form when he slashed
A. Ha, nice!
B. Nice, I can’t wait!