Tonight is the first night of the season I actually feel really good about playing some DFS. So much so that I don’t feel the need to take up space with witty filler. A multitude of SP1s, like Jacob deGrom (more on him later), will make it easier than usual to get your hitters first on Draft.com. There’s a game in Coors Field and finally some warmer weather. On top of that, we have plenty of mediocre left-handed pitchers to target. Those are the staples of DFS lineup building.
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Jacob deGrom, SP: Early – Apparently his flowing mane did not contain his pitching prowess in a Samsonesque way. Picking up where he left off last season, deGrom is pitching effectively while striking out close to ten batters per nine innings. Today’s slate offers a variety of top arms, but few have the matchup he does. It’s going to be a long season for the Marlins.
Carlos Martinez, SP: Middle – Martinez just dominated this same Brewers team in their home park launching pad. I’m willing to overlook the hiccup of his first start after that ten strikeout domination. He’s immature and struggles with walks at times, but it’s a good spot.
Sean Manaea, SP: Late – I’m not scared of LA’s offense at the moment. The entire team is pretty much in a slump with a bottom three wRC+ of 64 (100 is average). Manaea is just the opposite at the moment. He’s come out of the gate with two strong outings of 7+ IPs, only yielding one run in both.
Aaron Sanchez, SP: Late – The Orioles give away Ks with a league-leading 28% strikeout rate. Sanchez makes an intriguing play for a large league or dream team contest. He doesn’t have much to show in the results department thus far, but the stuff has looked good.
Nolan Arenado, IF: Early – It’s relatively warm in Colorado right now. Get all the Rockies bats you can. This marks the second straight game facing a lefty, so I expect guys like Arenado to be particularly dialed in (.420 AVG with a .420 ISO vs LHP 2017). That’s extraordinary.
Ian Desmond, IF: Middle – All aboard the Silver Bullet Express. I prefer to focus on knowable factors in April. Domes and thin mountain air do not slump or have back tightness. Lean on them until we have a large enough sample size to draw solid player related conclusions. Desmond is hitting to start the year with a few homers already.
Khris Davis, IF: Late – A lower floor than I prefer, but I’ll forgive it to get a hitter in the warm SoCal weather. Davis is not off to the best start. I’m hoping that changes against Hyun-Jin Ryu who only pitched 3.2 innings in his first start. Ryu had reverse splits last season but still gave up more homers to righties.
Rhys Hoskins, OF: Early – I can’t see Hoskins not getting a chance to hit a Homer Bailey offering very, very hard. Bailey just doesn’t miss many bats (near career low 6% SwgSt%). Rhys has an excellent approach at the moment, as well (.559 OBP).
Justin Upton, OF: Middle – Yet another LHP to target in Martin Perez facing the Angels. Upton makes a nice piece to stack with Mike Trout if you’re lucky enough to have a top pick.
Hunter Renfroe, OF: Late – Don’t forget about the visiting squad in Colorado. Renfroe has crushed LHP at points. Rudy’s Hittertron has him top 10 in value as well (subscribed to Rudy’s Tools with a free trial).
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
So much of the country is still stuck in February, weather-wise. It’s hard to pitch when you can’t feel your hand. It also doesn’t feel good to hit a baseball with a bat. My preference is to avoid games in the 30’s.
Doing Lines In Vegas
If you didn’t notice, I’m all in on the Coors effect tonight. The over/under of 10 is an easy over bet for me on a night with average pitching.
