Howdy fellow Razzballeroos! It’s me The Great Knoche. I am back here at Razzball again in 2024 with the weekly stolen bases SAGNOF article. I’m finding steals out there on the waiver wire for you guys and five girl readers on a weekly basis. I’ll probably make a few guest appearances writing DFS as well, so don’t fret you can still hit me up for advice on that also.
With the change of rules in 2023 we saw players stealing bases at the highest rate since 1997. Guess what… 2024 saw the SB rate even higher. The coolest fact in all of it for me is that not only are players running much more often, the caught stealing rate the last two seasons was historically low. 2023 was the only year on record where teams averaged higher than .72 stolen bases per game with a caught stealing rate as low as .18 per game. 2024 was only slightly higher in the caught stealing rate at .19. Not only did the rule changes allow the speedsters to increase their outputs, but they also allowed guys you wouldn’t think of as base swipers to get into double digits. Like Matt Chapman for instance who tallied fifteen. In 2022, six players stole 30+ bags, and 84 players reached double digit steals, but in 2023 we saw that number go to eighteen players with 30+ bags and 124 who reached double digits. 2024 was more of the same with 22 players netting 30+ and 115 players reaching double digits.
So some of you newer visitors to Razzball may be asking yourself, Self…What is SAGNOF? Well Self, SAGNOF is an acronym for Steals/Saves Ain’t Got No Face. You can find this term and many other Razzball sayings here on the glossary page. https://razzball.com/fantasy-baseball-terms/
The thought process is that you don’t have to chase stolen bases high and heavy at the start of the year. There are always going to be players who pick up a role where they chip in bags on a regular basis throughout the season. Now I’m not saying pass on Shohei Ohtani if you have the first overall pick, or Corbin Carroll or Bobby Witt in the first round. Those guys contribute in more categories than just steals. I’m saying build a balanced team with some steals early and don’t pass on Home Runs, RBIs, and Runs to snag Jacob Young well above his ADP because you think you’re light on steals later on. There are enough guys who can contribute in 2-3 categories and can chip in 10-20 bags later on in the draft you don’t need Jacob.
Let’s say for instance you read Grey’s article later this week and find yourself stacked up with Aaron Judge and Freddie Freeman in your first two rounds. Then decided for some reason you had to have Logan Gilbert in Round 3 and Blake Snell in Round 4 and couldn’t pass on Adley Rutschman in the 5th. A closer run scared you in the 6th and Robert Suarez landed on the roster and in Round 7 as a lifelong Cubs fan you finally get a chance to own Kyle Schwarber. While this strategy broke many of the unwritten Razzball draft rules, it can and does happen. To recap you’ve gone seven rounds and currently have a decent pitching staff plus a .260 Batting average, 350 Runs, 375 RBIs, 170 Homers, and a paltry 20 stolen bases. What’s a guy or five girl readers to do in this situation? Let’s take a look at some guys starting in Round 8 and later that might be of benefit to balance those categories while not entirely getting nothing but steals.
Anthony Volpe, SS: New York Yankees – ADP 140
Volpe had another solid year in 2024. His splits improved slightly at the plate to the tune of .243/.293/.364. His K-Rate dropped 5% and his BABIP got back to a normal level with more strikes being put into play. He will only be 24 this year and will enter his third full season in the big leagues. He never really had a AAA season so I think there’s still another step forward to be had here as he continues to learn on the fly. I could certainly see a 100 run, 25/25 season waiting in the wings if he can keep the average and OBP up atop the Yankees order. I’d be shocked if I didn’t own lots of shares of Volpe this year.
Tyler Fitzgerald, 2B/SS: San Francisco Giants – ADP 236
Grey and I differ on our outlook of T. Scott Fitzgerald. While his K-Rate in MLB was certainly concerning there are plenty of underlying positives where he should prove to be at least a solid source of power and speed. He consistently has shown an ability at all levels to put up an above average BABIP. He makes solid in zone contact and has a very good spray rate. Even if the K’s stay on the higher side (They will) I think he finds a way to keep the average above .240 which in 2025 MLB isn’t awful. Gimme a 67/19/70/.247/24 from his ADP anytime.
TJ Friedl, OF: Cincinnati Reds – ADP 254
Here’s a guy on the third most aggressive baserunning team in MLB who battled injuries all year and still put up a decent line in only 85 games. I am going to claim the injuries led to his drop in batting average and increase in weaker contact. He should lead off against righties, and get a chance to set the table for what looks to be a potent Reds offense if healthy. Like Fitzgerald, he should be considered a potential 20/20 option going off the board around pick 250.
Deep League Target:
Caleb Durbin, IF: Milwaukee Brewers – ADP 514
Perfect final example of what SAGNOF is about. Plenty of someones like Durbin will step into the limelight at some point in the season and be available to grab stolen bases on the waiver wire. Don’t punt them, but don’t get tied down early with one category dogs. As for Durbin, I think he’s the extra infielder to open the season in Milwaukee and likely the short side of a platoon at third base and will fill in elsewhere around the IF as needed. He hit .287 with 10 Bombs and 29 stolen bases last year in 375 PA in AAA with the Yankees. He had 47 walks to only 37 strikeouts. That folks is elite on base skills with plenty of speed to go with a little pop. Gimme all sorts of late round flyers on this guy.
