What does Beastie Boys and Peter Cetera have in common?! This post…
Back in the day
There was this post around the way
It pointed to SP sleepers as good late round plays
You asked, “Are they worth an add?” I said, “You May”
THEY’LL MAKE YOUR PANTS TIGHT AND THAT’S OKAY
If you clicked on the link in the first…stanza?… I listed a slew of pitchers as sleepers by their pitch repertoires. Some interesting sleepers starting with the fastball was Burch Smith, Erasmo Ramirez and Hector Santiago. That post and my prior post on pitch repertoires took into account mainly pitches’ Swinging Strike% and GB/FB ratios. There are many others I’d point out on that list – Devastating Danny Salazar as my favorite, but I’ll attend to ESPN’s % ownership in conjunction with this ‘Stuff’ for waiver wire options. Here are guys with < 10% ownership that make my pants tight:
- Matt Harvey (2.3%) – Matt Harvey? Yes, Matt Harvey. Why?
I am an owner that will fight for your honor
I’ll be the owner you’re dreaming of
I’ll roster you foreverrr
Knowing togetherrr
That we owned you for the glory of love
This is stupid. It’s not? Keep it going? Okay…
I will always roster Matt Harveyyy
Even over Bradley, Archieee…
You’re more deceptive than Moriartyyy
Alright, Alright. No more stanzas.
Realistically though – if you’re in a redraft league and don’t have a DL limit, go for him in the last round, stick him on your DL and enjoy 20-25 glorious innings… for the glory of love… or the glorious hole in the Mets rotation. GLORIOUS hole… not glory.
- As of 3/25, Corey Kluber’s ownership was at 9.8%…baffling. He should have a K-rate over 20% and BB-rate under 6.5% ensuring a 3.00+ K/BB ratio – in conjunction with a rising GB/FB rate, the guy is a great option even though he’s not utterly dominating. He also has 3 plus pitches that induce elite swinging strike rates. This induction evokes what I’m terming KLUBERZEAL – fake German for I would not hesitate to roster Corey Kluber.
- Tim Hudson (8.1%) is moving to an even better ballpark and induces a boatload of grounders still. As long as you’re not in a K/9 league, if you drafted a few high-K closers or relievers, there’s no reason not to grab him for wins/QS and value in the ERA/WHIP departments. He’s the Kyle Lohse of AT&T park with a better strikeout rate, ground ball rate and oh yeah – AT&T is a better park than Miller. C’mon.
- Archie Bradley (3.8%) – Bradley’s on this list because you want him on this list. He’ll be stud, fo’ sho’. But I can see command issues initially (K% dropped from unsustainable 37.4% in A+ to 23.5% in AA; his BB% also jumped 3%). Will he have the opportunity this year sooner than later? Sure, that’s why he has value. But he won’t induce enough grounders early on in conjunction with the command ratio, which I can see at sub 2.00. I would look to trade for him, or, if you do have him, play him up and trade him for some win-now pieces.
I’m going to pile guys together here from a swinging strike% standpoint i.e. how many swinging strikes they induce. For reference, here are league SwStr rates from last year:
Slider (SL) = 15.2%
Change (CH) = 14.9% (Kluber is #11 by the way)
Curve (CB) = 11.1%
Four-seamer (FS) = 6.9% (Kluber is #1 by the way!)
- Hector Santiago (2.4%) – 12th best FB SwStr% last year. IMO, he can have a relatively big jump in K% next year and moves to a much better park for pitchers. I can see a repeat 3.5-3.7 ERA no matter what the expected ERA’s say, and something closer to 150 K’s. Some luck/possible BABIP drop and better park factors suppressing his HR/FB ratio; I see major value here. I don’t think he’ll kill you in a standard 5×5 wins league like he did last year being on a better team.
- Tyson Ross (1.6%) – 2nd best SL; 55th best CH SwStr%. Sick SwStr rates on the slider and become even more devastating when he started and got to feature the stuff. The big concern is the pressure that specific pitch puts on the arm and the IP jump. We can’t expect much more than 125-145 innings. Use him in San Diego early, if he devastates with the slider, enjoy or trade him for help elsewhere.
- Jose Quintana (1.4%) – Couldn’t really highlight any of his pitches, but he’ll only be 25 next year and is relatively solid. If he pairs the 2012 GB/FB ratio with 2013 K/BB ratio, he can go sub 3.55, 1.25 again. That’s an asset with 10+ wins and 155+ K’s.
- Erasmo Ramirez (0.4%) – 11th best FB; 51st best CH SwStr%. A sweet spring, some injuries and homerun-master-flex Blake Beavan ensures Erasmo a rotation spot, and I like him so much more than his surface stats presented last year. Don’t forget his 2012 (3.36 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and a 4.00 K/BB ratio) even if it was supported by some lucky BABIP. Only issue I see on the surface is perpetually letting guys score, ugly LOB%’s, which is a bit concerning.
- Edwin Jackson (1.3%) – It’s worth pointing out that at times, he can be relatively dominant: 10th best CB; 17th best SL; 40th best CH SwStr%, but overall he’s still pretty hittable.
- Nate Eovaldi (0.7%) – 68th best SL SwStr%; FB not impressive from SwStr% but it was #2 in velocity; #2 GB/FB ratio on Curveball
- Taylor Jordan (0.3%) 28th best CH; 65th best SL SwStr% – If you pick this guy up, I want you to come back to this post and give me virtual high five every time he throws a gem. I guess you can come back and virtual drop-kick me otherwise.
- Yusmeiro Petit (0.1%) – 4th Best CB SwStr%. I’m not a huge fan of Ryan Vogelsong so until Edwin Escobar/Kyle Crick/Clayton Blackburn is ready, I’m keeping my eye on Petit’s nasty curveball and ability to maintain a 3.00 K/BB ratio in AT&T park. I’m down with a sub 3.86ERA-1.3WHIP and 125 K’s if he winds up with 150 IP.
- Robbie Erlin (1.3%) – #1 groundball to flyball ratio on CB. Another possible 3.00+ K/BB guy in a great stadium, and it sounds like he has the leg up on the rotation spot to replace Josh Johnson’s perpetual inability to stay on the field. In another year or two I can see a 3.65-1.2 guy here with his command. If he could just miss bats like he did in AA that could happen this year.
- Jenrry Mejia (0.1%) – 5th best SL SwStr%. I’m a Mets fan, but I’ll stay rational for this one. It seems like forever ago, this guy was a top prospect. He was pretty solid whenever he wasn’t in the majors really and last year he finally slider’ed himself into the discussion again. The cutter, which he uses most is not impressive from a SwStr% perspective, but it still had the 2nd best GB/FB ratio for cutters in the bigs last year which validated the elite GB/FB ratio (16th best if you consier 27.1 IP sufficient). He’s shown the skill in the past and even half the K/BB ratio, he’ll provide value with a K% back up to his minor league levels. Please Terry/Sandy, commit to him in the rotation.
(SwStr%’s & GB/FB ratios above from Baseball Pro’s Pitch F/X Leaderboard)
I’m also drafting all 4 of these guys in dynasty/keeper leagues and think they’ll all provide impact this year: Carlos Martinez (pounce if he enters the rotation), Kevin Gausman (samsie on him if a spot opens), Noah Syndergaard (if the Mets were to somehow compete, he’ll be up sooner than later) & Jake Odorizzi (I actually like Alex Colome quite a bit if he wasn’t suspended for PED’s, but Izzi’s got the #5 role to himself until Hellickson returns).
This is why you wait on pitchers if you don’t wind up with the elite options at good draft position.
Follow Dano on Twitter @Rotobanter or purchase your thermal packaging from him.
