Does anyone else have the feeling that we’ve done this before? A bit of a case of déjà vu perhaps? Don’t worry. I’m sure there’s a nice snug jacket and a comfy padded room somewhere nearby with your name on it. Hey, get away from that bouncy castle! That’s not what I meant. If you have that feeling, it’s because we have done this before. I wrote about Cubs rookie sensation Kris Bryant in this very column at practically the same exact time of year last season. The hype train gained steam during spring training and pushed his preseason ADP up into the 5th/6th round area, or essentially where Miguel Sano has been coming off of most draft boards this season. I was bullish on Bryant last year and he ended up finishing as the #30 overall player on the 2015 player rater after producing a 87/26/99/13/.275 batting line in 151 games (650 PA). Quite an impressive showing for a rookie, or a player of any experience level for that matter.
So why are we revisiting this player so soon? I’m glad I asked! After his stellar MLB debut, Bryant has predictably shot up draft boards this year. He’s being valued as an elite player pretty much everywhere, ranging anywhere from the 12th player off of the board (NFBC, Yahoo) to the 17th (ESPN) in fantasy drafts this season. But is he worthy of that high price tag?
Let’s take a look at some of the key statistics from Bryant’s 2015 campaign:
• Bryant’s .213 ISO was the 26th highest among qualified MLB players and his 26 home runs were tied for the 31st most in baseball
• His 99 RBIs matched Bryce Harper for the 14th highest total in MLB
• His 296.84 ft average fly ball distance was the 45th highest mark among qualified hitters
• He was one of just 11 players to hit 25+ home runs and steal 10+ bases
• His 11.8% BB% was the 18th highest mark among qualified players
• His 30.6% K% was the 3rd highest among qualified players, and his 16.5% SwStr% was the 4th highest
• His 66.3% Contact% was the lowest in MLB
• His .378 BABIP was the 5th highest mark among qualified players
• He had the 6th highest FB% (45.2%) and the 14th highest Hard% (37.5%) in MLB
What do all of these stats mean? Simple. They all paint the picture of Bryant as a player who:
• Is fly ball hitter
• Hits the ball hard and far on a regular basis
• Swings and misses a lot
• Can take a walk
• Has some speed and the ability to steal a few bases
What can we expect from the 24-year-old Bryant moving forward, and this season in particular? There are three players who I’ve identified as interesting (and recent) comps for Bryant based on his age and current skill set: Mark Reynolds, Colby Rasmus, and Justin Upton. These players have all produced seasons that fit the following criteria:
• age 25 or under
• BB% > 10%
• K% > 27%
• ISO > .200
• GB% < 40%
• min 350 PA
Reynolds qualified for this list twice (’08-’09), while Upton (’08) and Rasmus (’10) qualified once each. The best match for Bryant’s ’15 season appears to belong to Rasmus. Here are the numbers so that you can judge for yourself:
Bryant (’15): 650 PA, 87 R, 26 HR, 99 RBI, 13 SB, .275/.369/.488
Rasmus (’10): 534 PA, 85 R, 23 HR, 66 RBI, 12 SB, .276/.361/.498
Rasmus and Bryant also had identical walk percentages (11.8%) and similar ISOs (.222 for Rasmus; .213 for Bryant). Rasmus had the edge in K% (27.7% to Bryant’s 30.6%) as well as a BABIP that wasn’t quite as inflated (.354 to Bryant’s .378). Bryant had the clear edge in RBIs.
Here’s what Rasmus averaged over the next two seasons:
576 PA, 75 R, 18.5 HR, 64 RBI, 4.5 SB, 8.4% BB%, 23.0% K%, .172 ISO, .263 BABIP, .224/.293/.396
This is obviously an extreme case, but it could easily represent a potential floor for a player with Bryant’s skill set. The ceiling could be something like Reynolds’ 2009 season, which appeared as a comp for Bryant here. That’s the one in which Reynolds hit 44 homers and stole 24 bases. That season, or perhaps Upton’s 2011 campaign (105/31/88/21/.289), could represent a Bryant’s ceiling in the near future.
Bottom line: Kris Bryant is a skilled young player with massive power potential. His approach and overall offensive skill set, however, could lead to prolonged slumps and elevated strikeout totals during various stretches of the season. The double digit steals add significant value, and 25+ homers look likely with a full season of health. The BABIP is likely to come down some which will hurt his batting average, and if MLB pitchers have discovered a weakness to exploit during the offseason (besides offspeed and breaking pitches low and away), a Rasmus-like crash isn’t outside of the realm of possibilities for Bryant in the near future. As good as he was last year, Bryant isn’t a top 25 player for me this season when factoring in the risk. Proceed with caution.
Final Verdict:
