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Prayer-five

30, 29, 23, 18, 11. No, that’s not my horrible attempt to remember the lottery numbers from LOST, but rather the team wOBA rankings over the past 14 days. Yep, dead last. Next to dead last. Basically dead last. And more mediocre than any fantasy advice you’ll receive from ESPN or the #facepalm that happens every time you log in to Yahoo’s fantasy site. And what’s wOBA? Lemme learn ya somethin…

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Who fills those strugglin’ ranking slots? The NL East. The Braves, Phillies, Mets, Marlins and Nationals, respectively, feature not a single team over the past two weeks with anything resembling an elite offense. Outside of Daniel Murphy, Marcell Ozuna, Yoenis Cespedes, Odubel Herrera and Freddie Freeman each lineup has a ton of outs. Haha, hell…Madison Bumgarner would have the third most home runs on the Braves right now! So, if you’re a fan of an NL East team, you pray for either time to fly and the future to arrive faster than Byron Buxton cruising to a triple (see: Braves, Phillies), your team to remember how to hit (see: all non-Cespedes Mets), your star to return to form (see: Marlins/Giancarlo) or pitchers to actually give Bryce Harper something to hit (see: Nationals).

But…if you’re a starting pitcher…you pray, nay, petition, for the NL East. Like, ‘Oh, sweet baby Jesus, please let me face them this week!’ Facing one of these teams is hitting the jackpot. But, good heavens, why stop at one? Double down on those prayers and let’s get two of them! Two dragons! That’s exactly what the king of the castle for the Two-Start Pitchers gets in Week 10. Prayers answered!

Pitchers are listed in order by rank. Colors represent worst 8 or best 8 opponents according to team wOBA for last 30 days.

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iCGu6yR

Power. It’s why we’re all here, right? As Kanye so eloquently penned:

I’m living’ in that 21st century
Doing something mean to it
Do it better than anybody you ever seen do it
Screams from the haters, got a nice ring to it
I guess every superhero need his theme music
No one man should have all that power
The clock’s ticking’, I just count the hours
Stop tripping’, I’m tripping’ off the power

See, it’s power that rules supreme in fantasy baseball. Whether it’s a pitcher’s flaming fastball for strikeouts or a hitter dropping mammos into the light tower, power brings strength in numbers. Power is like the tide of fantasy baseball: when the tide rises, everything else rises; when the tide falls, everything else falls. So, if you want to accumulate the most stats possible, target power. And, for hitters, the best way to muster up power? The  pull.

While it comes with pros and cons, pulling the baseball provides more power as the batter generates more torque from the turn in his hips. Chubbs was right, it really is all in the hips. As the body turns and the hitter gets out in front of the ball for contact, the shoulders, the hips and the wrists are all engaged to bring the bat through the swing creating the greatest exit velocity of the baseball. Now, before all the baseball purists yell at me, this is not to say that the best hitters in the game are those that only pull the ball. The truth would actually be the opposite, as hitters must be able to take what’s given to them and hit to all fields. But…this isn’t real life. We’re talking fantasy. And in fantasy, gimme those pulled home runs all. day. long, because sometimes a hitter unlocks his development and success when he pulls the ball more. Case in point? The creeper for week 9…

Adam Duvall, OF (16.9%) – I mentioned Duvall twice last week as he almost topped Trayce Thompson for the highlighted hitter, but he’s jumped him this week all the way into the Top 100 rankings, which is rare for players owned in less than 20% of leagues. But that’s where you can find Duvall, available in 80%+ of ESPN leagues. Duvall’s taken over everyday duty in the Reds outfield and is producing like a fantasy darling since he took the job. The reason for his recent success (4 HR last 6 games) he highlighted himself in a recent interview with Zach Buchanan, “‘It’s probably because I’m getting the head [of the bat] out,’ Duvall said. ‘Your bat speed maxes out from the plate to a little bit past it. Anytime you can catch the ball out there, you’ve got a chance to do some damage.'” And that’s just what he’s doing: serious damage. Now, be careful with Duvall, as his sub-.300 OBP and 30%+ K% scream cold spells are coming, but he’s pulling the ball so well that he’s raising his average, blasting the ball out of the park and racking up the counting stats. Oh, and that power? Duvall has a .313 ISO. As Kanye said, ‘no one man should have all that power.’ But he does.

Enough creepin’…Here are your Top 100 Hitters for Week 9!

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hodor_thechildren_fight

First off, hopefully you understand the connotation of this article’s title from last Sunday. Potential spoilers ahead? Maybe? Second, I mean, damn it! Really, Bran? Ya had to do Hodor like that? Third, he really did hold that door. Standing O and hats off to you, gentle mini-giant. You own the episode. For the first time ever Game of Thrones fans experienced an emotional heart-wrenching of sadness more than just pure shock (see: Red Wedding). Oh, spoilers? It’s been almost a week…and I’ve been dying to talk about it!

You know what hitters, ahem, have been dying to do off Gerrit Cole since May 2? Score runs. Cole’s first five starts were sub-par, especially for a pitcher of his stature, but since that May 2 visit from the Cubs, he’s rallied off 26 IP with just 3 ER. That’s Arrieta-esque. He’s holding the door shut to opposing lineups, even the most formidable ones. After his shellacking by the Cubs to start the month, he then travelled to Wrigley two starts later and threw a 8IP/3H/0ER/0BB/7K gem. He’s heating up like Daenerys Targaryen at the end of Episode 4! Well, you know, without being naked of course. Cole’s putting April behind him and ascending back to Ace status (and we’re not worrying about that strange zero strike out start two weeks ago…). Don’t be concerned about solid lineups he’ll face; the Marlins and Angels have a .158 and .132 ISO the past 30 games. Nothing to write home about.

Home. Maybe Bran’s going there now. Or may Jon’s heading back there at the bidding of Sansa. As long as it’s not Hardhome, I doubt he cares, though. Sheesh. Oh, and yes, I just geeked out on Game of Thrones. You’re freakin’ welcome.

Pitchers are listed in order by rank. Colors represent worst 8 or best 8 opponents according to team wOBA for last 30 days. And in honor of GoT, we’ll name the tiers based on my favorite characters.

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trayce_thompson_hr_med_jgx6b477

‘Splash! Thompson hits another! All of California is cheering for this kid!’ I just want to hear Vin Scully say that once. Has he? Oh, wait, you thought I was talking about Klay? C’mon now, this is baseball, and we’re traveling south down the Cali coast to LA where we find the future mashing prince of Dodgertown. The brother of the Splash Brother in Golden State, Trayce Thompson is quickly making a name for himself early in this 2016 season. We’re gettin’ to to in Week 8, and Trayce is creeeeepin…

  • Trayce Thompson, OF (10.7%) – In the Week 7 edition a few commenters noted the hot bat of Thompson and Adam Duvall. While considering both for the highlight, Trayce edges him out despite potential concerns about the Dodgers having a crowded OF. Duvall’s OBP sits barely over .300 at….301. That ain’t good, no matter how much pop you have in the bat. Thompson, on the other hand, sports a cool .347 OBP with a 9.2% BB% and a 22.4% K%. While that K number might seem high, he’s managed to drop it almost ever year of his professional career. Last season for the ChiSox Trayce hit 5 HR in 135 PA. Solid. .238 ISO. Strong. This year he’s already mayshed 7 in 35 games and seems to be a lock for consistent ABs int he struggling Dodgers lineup. In May he’s slashing .301/10/6/14 with a 6:9 BB:K ratio. With Ethier, Crawford and Van Slyke all on the shelf, Puig seriously struggling and the Dodgers bats essentially flat-lining, Los Angeles can’t afford to not have him in the lineup right now. With another strong week under his belt, he’s a Creeper of the Week that could actually move his way into the Top 100 come Week 9. Get ahead of it while you can.

Enough creepin’…Here are your Top 100 Hitters for Week 8! Now in TECHNICOLOR!

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JT

It was almost 20 years ago. Aaaah, middle school. I remember it like yesterday. Or, well, like twenty years ago. Sweater vests, braces, and bleached blonde caesar haircuts. Before the real Slim Shady showed up a different white boy with rhythm busted onto the scene with his troupe of ex-Disney-turned-MTV boy banders. We all thought it was dumb (of course). Why should all the girls that we thought were hot think they were hot? Because they’re on TV? Stupid. Because they can sing? Hey, we were in chorus! Every crush I had at 12 would swoon over *NYSNC and their lyrics, thinking it was written for them.

‘It’s tearin’ up my heart when I’m with you/And when we are apart I feel it, too/And no matter what I do I feel the pain with or without you!’

Okay, a few things. Why in the Kanye West did you have an asterisk in front of your name? You’re not Roger Maris! GTFO. At least put a hashtag. Be ahead of the times. Instead your name looks like something that could be traded on NASDAQ. Second, besides their style choices asterikNSYNC was clearly a confused calamity of young 20-Somethings. How about ya find a lady that doesn’t make you manic? Just a thought. Third, how dare you steal from U2 with those lyrics!?! Fourth, thank heavens for progression. Amiright Justin Timberlake? (In case you’re totally lost, but somehow still reading this asinine intro, JT’s the aforementioned white boy whom I massively respect now, see: Jessica Biel). Fifth, I didn’t have to look those lyrics up. I knew them. In the darkness of my memories. Damn it.

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Drake

You know how that should go. Countin’ money you know how it goes. Pray the real live forever man. Pray the fakes get exposed.

Couldn’t have said it better myself, Drake. We’re six full weeks in and I’m just gettin’ tired of these fakes taking up roster spots due to their name value. Ya know? Pray that real live forever, man! Ok, well, I don’t really pray about fantasy baseball, but I hope that some of the bigger names turn it around and come back to life for the sake of our fantasy baseball teams. When it comes to ranking the Top 100 hitters in terms of rest-of-season value, though, it’s time to cut bait on a few. And, honestly, I may even be late by a few weeks in bringing out the scissors. You’ll see a lot of names at the bottom of the rankings this week that dropped out. Don’t freak out. Don’t get emotional. Look at the stats, even the deeper stats, and you’ll see it’s more than time to get the hotter players in your lineups regardless of name.

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Hakuna_Matata

“It means no worries for the rest of your days. It’s our problem free…philosophy! Ha Kenta Maeda!”

That’s how the song goes, right? You know, the one by Timon and Pumba in The Lion King? Am I really referencing a Disney movie in a fantasy baseball post? You bet your bottom dollar I am. Just look at em swayin above. That’s swag, son! Truth is, Hakuna Matata or Kenta Maeda, they’ve basically been the same thing in 2016 for fantasy owners of Maeda. Whenever the rookie SP takes the mound good things are surely to come.

However, I, personally, would be looking to sell him high over the next few weeks. Do I think he can’t sustain his pace? Well, perhaps? Listen, you can’t argue with a 2.30 ERA and a 3.71 K/BB ratio, but his batters have a .237 BABIP against him (that’s low), and his peripherals are a little scary. When I think of Maeda more visions of Daisuke Matsuzaka pop into my head than Yu Darvish. I’m afraid that come the summer time we’re going to see hitters figure him out. And when they do, that ERA will balloon, the 89.7% runners left on base number will drop, and the value will decrease. So, how in the world is it all Hakuna Matata? Because this week he pulls the hapless Angels and the Padres…in Petco. It doesn’t get any better than that! Ok, wait…yes it does. It could be the Padres and Braves. That’s alright, though. This is a happy post. And clearly he’s still doing something right! Get the solid starts out of him now while you still can, but after he mows downtime Padres it may be the perfect time to Ha-Kenta Ma-sell high.

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HP-trelawney-2

Listen, I’m no clairvoyant. Actually, I don’t even believe in them. Look into a ball, read a card, trace a palm and tell the future? GTFO. Well, unless you’re Professor Trelawney and your medium of choice for prophesy is tea leaves. Anyone? Anyone? Did I just nerd out alone?!? Thanks for judging me at this very moment. I could have said meteorologist instead of clairvoyant above, I suppose.

While I joke about it, one of the most important elements to competing in fantasy baseball, especially in long-term leagues, is knowing how to look at the minor league spectrum and predict the future of prospects that can help you in the immediate. It’s not necessarily telling the future, but there’s a way to extract some wisdom from the process. Now, let me go all teacher on you as to why the word wisdom was just used: Wisdom is looking to the past to know what’s going to happen in the future before it happens.

Applied to fantasy baseball, experience and wisdom can give you a leg up on the competition if you know what to look for. The elements of a call-up? A team that believes they should be in competition, a struggling hitter at the major league level, and a red hot hitter that can maysh (redneck pronunciation intended). Oh, it also doesn’t hurt to have FanGraphs highlight said player. I’ve yet to do this, and am surely shooting myself in the foot by doing so, but it’s time to make this week’s Creeper of the Week someone who has yet to take a major league at bat. Read those tea leaves and get out ahead of the crowd, because he won’t be available in many leagues once he’s called up. And I predict that will be soon.

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smile

Get ready for all the feels. Back in the preseason someone, either JB or an emailer, asked Grey on the Razzball Podcast (did you know we had one? Subscribe!) who could be the next Corey Kluber in fantasy baseball, a pitcher that had a high K%, a good minor league trajectory, and displayed something that would trigger a breakout? In 2014 Kluber ascended into Cy Young status, and won many a fantasy league for owners everywhere (this guy included – love you Corey!). It’s the type of question posed every offseason, because finding the diamond in the rough is part of what it takes to really excel in fantasy baseball. The season is so long, there is such a huge accumulation of stats, and there are so many players. If only you can find that special one.

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Sinatra

Ever made a girl swoon for you? Now, obviously I’m writing this from the angle of a guy, asking the question to other guys, even though if you listen to the podcast maybe we should change that direction after Grey being called effeminate in the most recent episode (haha!). But before you puff up your pride and answer that question in your head, ‘Well, yeah!’ let’s play the comparison game. Teddy Roosevelt says ‘Comparison is the thief of joy,’ and if ole Teddy is right then let me sap your joy for a moment: none of us could serenade and swoon like Frank Sinatra. Dude’s timeless, suave, and the epitome of cool. But why in the world am I beginning a fantasy baseball post by discussing Frank Sinatra’s game? Because even the best of ’em need a little luck.

Typically I argue that fantasy football requires much more luck than fantasy baseball, as the length and grueling nature of the season allows for managers to actually manage themselves into the playoffs and further. It’s a fallacy to believe that luck isn’t involved, though. In ‘Luck Be a Lady,’ one of Sinatra’s most iconic songs, he tells the story of needing Lady Luck’s presence to win his bet. In order to win your league, you better start swooning that scantily-clad dame of fortune as soon as you can. How? Nail the draft, avoid the DL, and pick up the right hitters at the right time. I’m here for the last one, you could probably use some help on the first one, and we’re gonna need a lot of help with that middle portion for this week’s Creeper of the Week (and even the honorable mention).

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“Where have you gone Joe DiMaggio? Our nation turns it’s lonely eyes to you.” Woo. Woo. Woo! Welp, I don’t know that even Joltin’ Joe could help the Yanks this year, but across town in Flushing ole Simon and Garfunkel may change their tune, because baseball nation is awaiting the return of one of its aces. New York’s in need of a hero (aren’t they always?), and I’m not talking of the Norse god variety. No, they need someone who speaks them, looks like them, gets them…someone who is them. The Dark Knight himself: Matt Harvey.

In 400+ IP from 2012-2015 his ERA never crept above 2.73, including 2.71 in 189 IP last season after fully recovering from the ol’ TJ surgery. He’s been as dominant as it gets, and should be the anchor of a nasty Mets rotation. But 2016 has been nothing of the sort. Yet. His 4.76 ERA is the ugliest thing in his life these days, because you know he can date whomever he wants in NYC. Just like how Batman always a lady friend stalking him, Harvey’s gotta have strong offerings galore. If only ‘strong offerings’ were also indicative of his pitches in 2016. Despite all other peripherals remaining consistent from years past, his bread and butter, the fastball, dropped a full MPH in velocity. Harvey needs his stuff to return, and fast. Well, to fast? And it needs to be fast, yes, but really it must get to its previous fast. Yeah…that works. And with a little luck, mixed with some well-timed visits from a few special opponents, I believe the Mets Dark Knight will be returning from the ashes soon. Really soon.

A hero is only as good as his villain, and Batman’s had his fair share. However, not all stack up the same, so let’s have some fun with the Week 5 Rankings by categorizing them by the best Batman villains. And no, don’ get confused, we’re not ranking the pitcher’s opponents, but man, when looking those two up against Harvey, his turn around happens now or it may be time to turn in the cape on 2016.

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Nye

When does a fad become a trend, and a trend the new standard? Whether it’s fashion, politics, music, movies, language or style, the shift from perception to reality advances faster and faster. In baseball, how fast does that timeline shift for a player? How long do we need to realize that a player’s stats are the new norm and not a flash in the pan? 50 at bats? 100 at bats? 2 months? Of course, there’s always the risk of regression, like the 80’s being totally back in style, but there are other things from the past that just won’t come back. Or at least we all better hope they don’t. Like Jnco. Haha, that used to be cool?

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