The MLB trade deadline has finally come and gone. We’ve been building up for it now for weeks and finally, the teams are essentially set for the stretch run. As always, the trade deadline serves as a high-stakes stage for teams to make crucial decisions that can ultimately reshape the landscape of the league. Nowhere did we see that more than with the Angels, as they made a flurry of moves in a last-ditch pitch to keep Shohei in town. Others made only a whisper and their fans are confused (I’m talking to you Yankees and Reds).
Of course, everyone in the industry has been breaking down the deals and giving you their opinions on the winners and losers. I guess I’ll take this opportunity to do the same. The only difference, as you’ve come to expect from me, I’ll be using analytics to back up my opinions. I’m also going to focus on one team in particular – the Miami Marlins.
The Marlins’ deadline game plan was obvious – pursue red meat! In trades with the AL Central, the Marlins landed Jake Burger and Josh Bell to help boost a team SLG of .400, ranking 11 of 15 in the NL and 20 of 30 across MLB. Will it be enough? We’ll dig into those additions.
Let’s not forget, Marlins GM Kim Ng also made three other deals. Ryan Weathers, David Robertson, and Jorge Lopez were all added to bolster the pitching staff for the stretch run. We’ll look at those two as well.
Let’s get started.
The Bats:
Jake Burger becomes the new everyday 3B for the Marlins. He brings quite a mixed bag of analytics with him from the Windy City, 25 HRs (nice) and 102 Ks, and .218 BA (not-so-nice) among them. Prior to Burger’s arrival, Marlins 3B had only 5 HRs and similarly amassed 102 Ks and a .255 BA. Although we see the same number of Ks, they are not equal. Specifically, Burger’s Ks come across 329 PAs (K% of 31%) while the Marlins 3B comes across 620 PAs (16.5%). That said, a 5:1 HR ratio must have made up for that deficiency in Kim Ng’s mind.
Here are a few other analytics of note (Burger vs Marlins 3B):
- SLG (.527 vs .325)
- OPS (.813 vs .629)
- ISO (.309 vs .070)
- BABIP (.231 vs .301)
- Barrels % (19.2% vs 3.8%)
- HardHit % (50% vs 36%)
- maxEV (118.2 vs 114.0)
- HR/FB (31.6% vs 4%)
Clearly, Jake Burger provides a huge power upgrade to the Marlins for the rest of the season. He’s on a one-year contract so if this works out for both sides, and I expect it does, look for Jake to become a more permanent resident of south Florida in the coming months.
Moving on to the other JB obtained at the deadline, the upgrade of Josh Bell at 1B feels more about potential. To date, Marlins 1B have a total of 16 HRs, while Bell has 12. Unlike Burger, Bell is “only” striking out at a 20.3% clip (Marlins 1B at 21.8%). One could argue these are essentially a push. Again, this deal is more about potential in my mind, seeking to tap into the highly predictable “every-other-year surge” where Bell attained HR totals of 26 (2017), 37 (2019), and 27 (2021). Where will he finish in 2023?
Here are the same analytics we looked at for Burger (Bell vs Marlins 1B):
- SLG (.398 vs .409)
- OPS (.724 vs .719)
- ISO (.156 vs .148)
- BABIP (.280 vs .311)
- Barrels % (9.9% vs 5.8%)
- HardHit % (42.9% vs 37.9%)
- maxEV (114.0 vs 110.9)
- HR/FB (13.6% vs 10.1%)
If I’ve said it once, I’ve said it a million times, trading for Josh Bell is about potential. In many cases, he’s a push compared to Marlins 1B but there are some key metrics (Barrel %, HardHit%, maxEV, and HR/FB) that brings optimism. Will he “outplay” the previous Marlin duo of Garrett Cooper and Yuli Gurriel when we look back in October? I think so, but time will tell.
The Arms:
Moving on to the other 3 Marlins trades, the front office sought to primarily boost a bullpen generally ranked mid-to-below average amongst MLB clubs. Marlin’s relievers had amassed a 4.08 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 29 SVs, 9.62 K/9, and 3.39 BB/9 over 395 IP. Here’s how their 3 new arms stack up.
David Robertson
The biggest addition, in my opinion, was David Robertson – although he’s struggled a bit out of the gate. Over 47 IP, Robertson logged a 2.05 ERA (3.24 xERA) and 1.00 WHIP, with 9.77 K/9, .243 BABIP and limiting barrels to 7.6%. His FB% is the highest of his career at 45.7% but moving to the 4th best home park in limiting HRs should help drop his 13.2% HR/FB rate as well.
More than anything, Robertson gives the Marlins pen a stable veteran next to the youngster, AJ Puk, someone who’s been there and done it at a high level during tight pennant races. We can’t really put a number on that one but if there was a metric, he’d be sitting pretty high in the standings.
Early returns see Robertson still gathering his sea legs. Despite a SV in his first game, he’s given up a HR in each of his next 2 games, and thus contradicting my whole park factor argument. Again, I’m on board with this move and think it’ll pay dividends over the long haul.
Ryan Weathers is an under-the-radar move that may bring dividends in the upcoming months. Weathers has struggled a bit at the MLB level with San Diego. Over 44 IP, he’s given up 31 ER and 9 HRs, walking 17 batters and striking out 29. That correlates to a 5.84 K/9, 3.43 HR/9 and 1.81 HR/9.
Over a similar number of IP in AAA, the results were much better: 11.51 K/9 and 1.11 HR/9. His xERA (4.77) and xFIP (5.29), although still not great, provide optimism to the Marlins that he may be able to dial into something useful for the big club. We’ll have to see how this one shakes out, but the team appears to still have faith in the 2018 7th overall draft pick to move a MLB player (Garrett Cooper) and AAA pitcher (Sean Reynolds). Of course, the move of Cooper opened up the spot for Josh Bell so there were certainly other factors in play here (financial and roster makeup) that we need to keep in mind.
Jorge Lopez
If you’re Kim Ng and you have an underperforming part-time/former closer, what do you do? Apparently, you call a counterpart with whom you recently made a win-win deal and take his underperforming part-time/former closer. That essentially explains how Jorge Lopez and Dylan Floro swapped uniforms.
Of the two, you could argue Lopez has been the less effective, posting a 5.09 ERA and 27.11 K:BB over 35.1 IP prior to the trade. Since the trade, 3 outings (2.2 IP) without an ER have lowered his ERA to 4.74 but only has 1 K (and 1 BB) to show for it.
The disappointing results this year, compared to his peak with Baltimore/Minnesota last season, is not obvious just by looking at his numbers. Fastball speed is essentially unchanged, BABIP is also unchanged, BB/9 is actually better. Where you see the difference is contact.
He’s just not inducing nearly as much weaker contact as he did before (Soft% down over 3%). Also, the contact is compounding the issue. His GB/FB (1.78) is trending toward his career lows (2.25 last season), Hard% (36.8%) trending toward career highs (21.3% last season), and batters are pulling the ball (Pull% of 48.7%) on him more than ever before. Barrel% is up over 2% and LA up to 7.9 (from 1.7 last season).
Jorge Lopez is not too far removed from be a dominant arm in the pen. So the old saying, “change of scenery will do him some good” may actually be appropriate here. If the Marlins can right this ship, there is a bonus waiting – Lopez comes to Miami with an extra year of team control.
Summary
Overall, the work done by Kim Ng and the Marlins front office most certainly gave the team the necessary pieces to compete for a wild card spot this season. On the offensive side, adding two power bats, plus the return of Jazz Chisholm from the IL, should be a shot in the arm for the club. Adding 2, and potentially a 3rd later in the season, hurlers to the pen should provide much needed relief to a Corp of young SP (well, minus Johnny Cueto of course).
They’ll need all hands on deck as the next 6 series on the schedule sees them facing playoff-contending teams. If they somehow find a way to the playoffs, watch out!
As always, thanks for coming with me on this journey through the numbers. As I like to say, just keep sifting through the number. That’s where you find the gems!
Follow me on Twitter: @Derek_Favret.
Until next time, my friends!
