Before I begin, I want to apologize to my throngs of fans and loyal readers for the tardiness of this article. I was on track for a Friday publication, but I’ll just say, sometimes life gets in the way and leave it at that. We’ve all been there so I know you understand. Anyway, everything is good and I’m here today with another edition of Analytics Anonymous.
We’re a week closer to the All-Star Game and a week closer to the trade deadline. The previous column looked at a few offensive players that may be on the move. This one is all about pitching.
UPDATE: We’ve seen the first major move when the Rangers sent LHP Cole Ragans and a minor league OF to the Royals for Aroldis Chapman. Both Chapman and his former pen mate, Scott Barlow, were going to be profiled in this article. Now, I’ll fill his spot with someone else.
Back to the original intro…
Name a contender that is comfortable with their pitching staff and won’t need to go shopping. Go ahead, name one. I’ll wait…
Did you come up with one? Neither did I. We could look at the roster for every contending MLB team and identify pitchers, whether SP or RP, that would provide a boost to their playoff or World Series chances. Some of the pitchers profiled below will undoubtedly move. Will they be this year’s Jordan Montgomery, providing All-Star caliber numbers for their new team? Or will they be this year’s Frankie Montas, looking great on paper but turning out to be an absolute dud on the mound?
Time will tell for sure but what’s the fun in waiting? As I’m keen to say around this time every week: Let’s see what the numbers suggest.
Kyle Freeland – I’m going to make this the official “Free Kyle” home for 2023. Is this the year Kyle finally breaks free from the shackles of the thin mountain air so we can see his true potential? With 3 years still left on his deal, probably not, but I’m pulling for him. Let’s see what a contender may get if they can pull something off.
Here is the Good:
You’re saying, “a 4.54 ERA and 1.39 WHIP are good? Have you lost your mind, TLB?” Well, I may have lost my mind but that’s a discussion for a different day. I guess I should have clarified. When I said “GOOD” I meant numbers that are equivalent or better than last season, when we last petitioned for parole. Remember, our man Freeland pitches half his games at Coors Field. So, let’s look at that…
Ironically, his ERA and K/9 is better at home, pitching to a 3-2 record. On the road, his ERA is almost a full 2 points higher and he’s giving up almost 2 HR/9. Kyle is one of the few pitchers whose numbers show he’s not intimidated by the drawbacks of pitching in Denver. Damn, I’m not making a good case here for a trade.
Let’s look at the Not-So-Good:
Ouch! What is there to say to this? I’m sure Freeland’s pedigree alone necessitates a few GM calls but let’s be honest, there’s not a lot here to suggest Freeland is going to be on the move. Am I still rooting for him to change addresses? You bet I am! But check in next year around this time. I may be penning this segment once again.
Marcus Stroman – The Cubs may be a little ahead of schedule but make no mistake, they are still rebuilding. One of their most attractive trade pieces is Marcus Stroman. By all appearances, he enjoys donning the Cubbies uniform and the team is happy to have “Stro” man the bump every 5th day (see what I did there?). So, why do I think he may be on the move?
First, Stroman bet on himself and has an opt-out clause in his contract after this season. That bet is paying off after posting some of his best numbers so far this season (2.76/1.09 ERA/WHIP, 92 Ks over 107.2 IP). If you look across his analytics, many of his numbers (K/9, especially) remain in line with his historical results. His BABIP is at a very nice .250, directly attributable to a GB% of almost 60% and a LD% below 20%. Both numbers he hasn’t seen since 2018 in Toronto.
In my opinion, he’d be a fool not to take the opt-out and test free agency. The Cubs know this too.
Second, despite the standings showing the Cubs only a half-dozen or so games out of the final wild card spot, we shouldn’t kid ourselves. The Cubs aren’t making the playoffs this year and need to be preparing for 2024.
Here’s the best scenario, as I see it. The Cubs trade Stroman for a prospect package then re-sign Stroman to a long-term deal in the offseason. You may recall that very same scenario happened a few short years ago, ironically involving the aforementioned Aroldis Chapman. In that deal, the Yankees sent Chapman as a rental to the Cubs, Chapman helps the Cubbies win the World Series, then Chapman re-signs with the Yankees. History tends to repeat itself. If it does here, Cubs fans should rejoice.
One last tidbit of data before moving on: Stroman’s xERA and xFIP suggest to me a negative correction may be coming during the 2nd half. Dismiss the London outing as a circumstance of his environment, but the warning shot was there. Get moving, Cubbies!
Lucas Giolito – Another pitcher who is rediscovering himself this season, and more importantly, is on a team unlikely to be serious contenders for the playoffs. Lucas Giolito is doing well to make everyone forget his nightmare 2022 season, one in which he spun a 4.90 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. So, what’s changed? His BA against RH batters this season is down over a half point (from .312 to .241). After a dip in his fastball speed last season below 93 mph, he’s back over that mark again in 2023. K% is up, BB% is down and he is also back in line with career-best GB% and LD%.
The White Sox will need to be tempered in their expectations on a Giolito deal. He’ll be a true rental piece, after signing a one-year, $10.4M contract in January 2023. His analytical indicators also point to a negative correction: an ERA well below his xERA (3.41 and 4.27, respectively) as well as a FIP/xFIP of 4.19/4.28. Add to this a SIERA that is right at the MLB average and this has the making of those deals where the SP struggles with his new team. There’s no doubt in my mind that someone will take a shot here…but who? I have my eyes on Tampa Bay, to be honest.
Here are a few other SPs that may change uniforms in the coming weeks:
- Corbin Burnes (this was pre-destined during his Arbitration hearing!)
- JP Sears (do the A’s trade their best young SP?)
- Rich Hill (anyone need an inning eater?
- Jack Flaherty (it’s clearly not the Cardinal’s year!)
- Patrick Corbin (showing a little bit of his old self!)
- Lance Lynn (fire sale on the South Side!)
- Jordan Lyles (remember, everyone needs arms!)
Switching gears, how about all those RPs out there? Relievers tend to be the most traded assets year-to-year and this one should be no different.
Alex Lange – Alex Lange is pitching to a 3.89 ERA/1.27 WHIP, with 44 Ks over 34.2 IP, notching 12 SVs. His fastball is pushing 96 mph, inducing a SwK rate of over 15%, and punching batters out at a rate of almost 11 and a half per 9. He walks too many batters to be a Closer for a top team, but I can think of many who would probably love to add him for the 8th.
Scott Barlow – I mentioned Barlow earlier and here it is. This one’s pretty simple really. The Royals signed him to a very affordable one-year deal, he’s 10-12 in SV opportunities, K/BB of almost 3.0 and K/9 over 12. Pack your bags Scott, you’ll be pitching in a pennant race here soon.
David Bednar – David Bednar would command a premium price for any team willing to add a top CL: 1.44 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 16 SVs, HR/9 of 0.3, BB/9 of 1.1 and SwK rate of almost 19%. Adding Bednar on the Angels would go a long way in getting Trout to the playoffs and re-signing Ohtani. That said, you and I both know there’s no way he dons the halos uniform. The Diamondbacks would make a huge splash if they can work out a deal here.
And the honorable mentions:
- Jordan Hicks (remember, not the Cardinal’s year!)
- Kyle Finnegan (Finnegan/Corbin package?)
- Trevor May (A’s should move anyone of value!)
- Joe Kelly (name comes up each year but contract may keep him in Chicago)
Is your favorite team a buyer or seller on the hurler market? Which pitchers do you see moving at the deadline? We won’t have to wait much longer to find out. Share your thoughts in the chat below.
Once again, thanks for traveling with me on this ride through the wonderful world of baseball analytics. As I always say, keep sifting through the number. That’s where you find the gems!
Follow me on Twitter: @Derek_Favret.
Until next time, my friends!
