It’s been a rough season for starting pitching in the early going. If you splurged on Clayton Kershaw or pulled the trigger on Noah Syndergaard in your draft, you’re probably sitting pretty on the pitching side at the moment. However, fantasy mainstays Zack Greinke, Chris Archer, Matt Harvey, Adam Wainwright, and Justin Verlander have combined for zero wins, a 7.30 ERA, and a 1.79 WHIP thus far in 2016. Those ratios are as painful to look at as this video is. Ok, maybe not quite that bad, but still pretty awful. Caught somewhere in the middle of all of this madness is Los Angeles Angels ace Garrett Richards. He’s generally not considered to be a #1 or #2 SP in fantasy circles, but a decent #3. Good, but not great K-rate. Middle of the road ratios. Won’t kill you anywhere but probably won’t be a huge asset either. A fallback option. Is this perception of Richards accurate? What can be expected from him this season?
Let’s take a look at a few things that stand out regarding Richards:
• He throws hard. Really hard. Among qualified starting pitchers during the 2015 season, Richards had the 4th highest average fastball velocity (95.5 mph) in MLB. He also led the American League and finished 2nd in MLB to Gerrit Cole with 1,684 pitches of at least 95 mph last season.
• He misses bats. His 11.1% SwStr% in 2015 was the 17th highest among qualified SPs, equaling the mark produced by the reigning NL Cy Young award winner, Jake Arrieta. His 11.0% SwStr% over the last two seasons was the 15th highest mark over that span.
• He induces ground balls as well as soft contact. Over the last two seasons, Richards had the 8th highest GB% (53.1%) among qualified SPs. His 22.4% Soft% was the 4th highest mark among qualified SPs.
• His team’s defense has improved. The Angels traded for shortstop Andrelton Simmons this past offseason. Going by Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR), Simmons’ last three seasons all fit in the top six of the last decade at the shortstop position. Nothing against former SS Erick Aybar, who has essentially ranged from average to solidly above average throughout most of his career, but that represents a massive improvement at that position. An extreme ground ball pitcher like Richards could benefit greatly from having a defensive wizard like Simmons playing behind him for an entire year.
• He’s added a new pitch to his arsenal. Richards has essentially been a fastball/slider pitcher throughout his career (with a show me curveball), but he’s now added a changeup to his repertoire. This could prove to be an especially useful pitch in order to keep left-handed hitters off balance.
• He’s finally healthy again. Remember the torn patellar tendon that Richards suffered late in the 2014 season that was supposed to keep him out for upwards of a month at the beginning of the 2015 season? He wound up missing no time at all and made 32 starts last season. Whether or not the knee was an issue in-season is uncertain, but he’s had a full offseason of rest and normal preparation for the 2016 season.
Bottom line: It’s tough to guess which way I’m leaning regarding Richards, isn’t it? Ooh, the suspense! There’s a lot to like here. Velocity, grounders, improved health and defensive support, a new pitch in the mix. All good stuff. However, he’s never been an elite strikeout artist (7.64 K/9 last year – MLB average for an SP was 7.4) and he can get a bit whippy at times (1.26 career WHIP). All of the stars appear to be aligned for a strong season though. Expect roughly 15 wins with a 3.40 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and 200 strikeouts in 210 innings from Richards this season. High-end #2 SP on the cheap.
Final Verdict:
