For those of us out here who weren’t in diapers in the early 1990s, you know the inspiration for this title. Here’s the famous chorus:
You down with OPP (Yeah you know me), you down with OPP (Yeah you know me)You down with OPP (Yeah you know me), who’s down with OPP (Every last homie)You down with OPP (Yeah you know me), you down with OPP (Yeah you know me)You down with OPP (Yeah you know me), who’s down with OPP (All the homies)
If you don’t know what OPP is, just google it. Early 90’s “club music” wasn’t exactly my jam, so I’ve gone as far as I plan to with this metaphor. The rest is on you.
What I am here for though is OBP. Don’t bother to google it, I’ll give you all you need to know.
On Base Percentage
Some of us even play in OBP leagues in addition to, or more likely, as a replacement for AVE.
To calculate OBP: (H + BB + HBP) / (AB + BB + HBP + SAC)
In the most simplistic form, OBP is used to measure how often a batter reaches base safely. As an analytical tool, we use it to evaluate a player’s overall offensive performance. Generally, a high OBP means a batter is performing well.
We need to focus on that last statement, “a high OBP means a batter is performing well.” This may be a true statement for real baseball, but does it have the same meaning for fake baseball? That is the question of the day.
Of the 179 current qualified hitters, let’s look at the top 20 in OBP:
It should be no surprise to see Luis Arraez at the top of the list, as he’s likely on his way to another batting title. Similarly, there are plenty of names we should expect to see on a top 20 OBP list, including Ronald Acuna Jr., Kyle Tucker, Xander Bogaerts, Paul Goldschmidt, and Mike Trout.
You see some other other names that come as more of a surprise in this list. We love fast starts in fantasy baseball but let’s be realistic, many of these guys are going to start falling off as we get deeper into the season. I’m talking to you Brandon Marsh, LaMonte Wade Jr., and Ian Happ. Nothing personal fellas, just reading the tea leaves.
But again, how does OBP translate to fantasy success – for those of us NOT in an OBP league?
Sure, these guys are getting on base. That’s great since we have 0 chance in adding to our H2H or Roto categories if our players are dragging their tails back to the bench each AB. Once they’re on base, what are they doing with it? In fantasy, getting on base can translate to a decent AVE but remember the equation above, there’s only one variable that helps. What we really need is for these top OBP players to chalk up SBs and Rs. Let’s take another look at the top 20 OBP leaders and see where they currently rank in SB and R:
As you can see, the number of players who rank top 20 in OBP, R, and SB is limited to just Ronald Acuna Jr. Only 7 other players even contribute to one of the two other counting categories, all being R.
So, the immediate observation is that Ronald Acuna Jr. is doing his part to earn the 5-category moniker and #1 fantasy draft pick. The other observation is that a top OBP performer (remember, a high OBP means a batter is performing well…RIGHT?) is not generally translating to success in other categories.
That makes sense because having a high Contact % or a good EYE does not directly translate to speed or runs scored. We are better served to dig deeper in stolen base opportunity (remember SBO? If not, read more HERE) and evaluate players hitting behind these players.
Is it all doom and gloom here? Well, no. We simply need to scroll a little farther down the OBP list to find additional players contributing to the counting categories as well.
Bottom line: OBP remains an important metric to evaluating batters and won’t be removed from the triple slash line anytime soon. For fantasy purposes, however, OBP is useful only when we look at it IN CONJUNCTION WITH other analytics.
As always, keep sifting through the number. That’s where you find the gems!
Follow me on Twitter: @Derek_Favret.
Until next time, my friends!
