The royal we just went over the top 20 starters for 2011 fantasy baseball. For those that skipped the title, this post is the top 40 starters for 2011 fantasy baseball. If you’re looking for the hitters, it’s under the 2011 fantasy baseball rankings, which is also at the top of the page. Barring unusual circumstances, I usually try to grab two starters from this list of twenty. So I’ll have one starter from the first twenty and two from this, which gives me three. Math’s been berry, berry good to me! Anyway, here’s the top 40 starters for 2011 fantasy baseball:
21. Dan Haren – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Billingsley. I call this tier, “Times weren’t always the best for some of these guys last year, but here we are in a new year. Nice of you to join us.” Wasn’t it swell when Haren could be relied on to only pitch well in the 1st half of the year? Yeah, swell indeed. Unfortunately, May and his 6.08 ERA happened. However, his xFIP was only 3.62 in May. Across the board in the 1st half of last year, his terrible luck haunted his ERA. Boo! He’ll only be 30 years old for the majority of 2011 and we’re about to see a nice bounce back year from him. Act like you know, MC Lyte. 2011 Projections: 15-9/3.60/1.18/215
22. Tommy Hanson – In May and June combined last year, he had a 5.70 ERA. Yet, I kinda want Hanson on every team of mine. Even AL-Only ones where I draft him as Hommy Tanson and pretend he’s on the Mariners. I’m not thrilled with the drop in K-rate that we saw last year, but there was no velocity loss so I’m not overly concerned. I’m getting that vibe that this is the last time we see Hanson outside of the top 10 starters for a long time. (Since I’m going to get it in comments, here’s my attempt to explain why Hanson’s below Haren but has better projections. A) As I’ve said all along, if a guy is the same tier as another guy, they’re interchangeable. B) There’s more risk attached to Hanson’s projections than Haren’s. C) There’s no C. 2011 Projections: 14-7/3.20/1.15/190
23. Max Scherzer – If the AL Cy Young voting ends up in 2011 as Dan Haren, Max Scherzer and Hommy Tanson, I wouldn’t be surprised, other than, of course, there is no Hommy Tanson. As for my Scherzer fantasy, it’s under where it says Scherzer fantasy. I’m drafting Scherzer all over the place and haven’t been this giddy since the first time I touched a boob. 2011 Projections: 14-9/3.40/1.22/210
24. Matt Cain – Member when we let things like xFIP dictate whether or not we were going to draft Cain? Those were the days, huh? It was way back in 2010 when we found out a hashtag wasn’t a breakfast item, meat could be worn as a dress and our suspicions were confirmed that a union of Ryan Reynolds and Scarlett Johansson made no sense. Cain is nothing but a 3.50 ERA pitcher with solid Ks, which isn’t bad unless you don’t like number two fantasy starters. 2011 Projections: 13-9/3.50/1.12/180
25. Brett Anderson – During last year’s preseason, I warned you to avoid Anderson because of his innings in 2009. (Kinda like I’m doing this year with Latos.) Now that we got 2010 out of the way, we’re back in again on Anderson. The K-rate that fell to a 6 per nine will bounce back a K or so. The ERA will be around a low 3. And he might only win three games because of the A’s hitting. We’re going to ignore that bit of potential trouble. 2011 Projections: 10-6/3.15/1.18/150
26. Chad Billingsley – He feels like an elder statesman, but he’ll only be 26 years old entering the 2011 season. Not sure if we ever see the huge Cy Young-type season I once imagined for him, but he’s been a fairly consistent 3.50-ish ERA and around 8 Ks per nine pitcher. God willingsley, he won’t try to imitate Dorothy Hamill this year. 2011 Projections: 14-8/3.50/1.22/185
27. Chris Carpenter – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Nolasco. I call this tier, “Some ‘perts are drafting these guys. I’m not.” I’m sorry, I just can’t get on board drafting Carpenter. I mean, I would draft him if he were to fall this low, but it’s not happening. He gets drafted way too early for me when I look at his K-rate and his age. You have to draft him as a number one, and, for me, he’s not a number one. 2011 Projections: 14-10/3.45/1.15/150
28. Tim Hudson – I’ll be honest, I almost put Hudson in a tier of guys I would draft. In fact, I did put him in a tier of guys I don’t want, then switched him to a tier of guys I do want, then switched him back to a tier of guys I don’t want, then I went to the bathroom and forgot what I was doing otherwise I might’ve switched him back again. What ultimately had me skipping Hudson is his K-rate last year. I just can’t roll with a 5.47 K-rate, even if he was better at striking guys out in the 2nd half of the year. 2011 Projections: 14-10/3.75/1.20/130
29. Phil Hughes – Know when I’m going to draft Phil Hughes? After he’s traded away from the Yankees. Nothing personal. He just had the 2nd worst fly ball rate in the majors and he plays in The House They Built Next To The House That Ruth Built. Just can’t draft that headache. 2011 Projections: 14-11/4.00/1.22/160
30. Josh Beckett – I’m getting the sense that people are whirlybirding around Beckett like he’s about to resurrect from the dead. Yeah, um, maybe, but I have enough stress in my life just waiting for my Netflix Instant Queue to buffer. I don’t need to pray Beckett’s better in the AL East while pitching in Fenway. 2011 Projections: 15-9/4.15/1.24/170
31. Trevor Cahill – Makes sense that Cahill can’t even buy a K in his last name. In 2009, Cahill’s K-rate was 4.53. Last year, it was 5.40. It’s a good trend but I’ll wait until 2012 when it’s actually up to something presentable. No Ks is a than, but no thans. He’ll probably have an ERA over 4.00 in 2011, but I’ll be generous and give him… 2011 Projections: 8-9/3.90/1.15/130
32. Ricky Nolasco – Underlying numbers, schmunderlying numbers. In his career, he’s had one year of an ERA below 4.50. Let him figure it out on someone else’s team. You owe it to your ulcer. 2011 Projections: 12-7/4.35/1.25/170
33. Shaun Marcum – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Volquez. I call this tier, “I kinda love these guys.” I touched on Marcum briefly in the Adrian Gonzalez trade post. He needs more press from me. He was solid in the AL East, now he gets the NL Central. Here’s my doesn’t-really-make-any-sense-whatsoever-and-is-not-really-reliant-on-anything-but-my-gut prediction, Marcum’s starting the All-Star Game. You heard it here first! (But please forget I said anything about this if he has a poor April.) Nonsense, hedging parenthetical! Marcum’s going to have a terrific year. Go all in, loyal Razzball reader. 2011 Projections: 15-8/3.35/1.15/185
34. Daniel Hudson – Daniel Hudson is getting a sleeper post this afternoon. I originally wrote the post on the back of my Trapper Keeper with a giant heart around the whole thing then transcribed it into WordPress. 2011 Projections: 12-9/3.50/1.18/190
35. Gio Gonzalez – He went 13 innings over the 30 inning Verducci threshold last year, but Verducci’s a crackpot who told you to avoid F-Her, Latos and Josh Johnson last year. I’m sorry, but he’s throwing darts at a board. Can we all agree to never listen to him again? This year I expect Gio to up his K-rate from 7.67 to a mid-8 and to keep his walk rate (which isn’t great) around where it is or lower it slightly. It’s a step forward, ya’ll. Maybe he slows down next September but we’ll cross that bridge when we come to it. 2011 Projections: 12-8/3.60/1.28/195
36. Edinson Volquez – I already drooled out a Edinson fantasy post. 2011 Projections: 13-9/3.80/1.35/190
37. Ted Lilly – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Dempster. I call this tier, “Kinda boring, but reliable number three starters.” I don’t think anyone gets up and does a jig after drafting a guy in this tier. There might’ve been a time when the Wandwagon brought you some excitement, but, let’s face it, the only one excited about owning an Astros pitcher is Ed Wade’s toupee. These pitchers are good to balance out a little bit too much upside in your number two starter like, say, Volquez or Gio. As for Lilly, he’s about as reliable as they come. With him pitching the whole year in the NL West, you might even get lucky and find yourself with a solid number two to borderline one fantasy starter. For instance, Hudson was in my boring tier last year and he far exceeded it. 2011 Projections: 13-9/3.55/1.12/155
38. Wandy Rodriguez – As I went through the top 40 starters, something became apparent. There’s a crapton of guys I’d draft. I might be able to grab four starters from the first 40 guys. And we haven’t even got to my upside 4th and 5th starters yet like Romero, Bumgarner and everyone’s favorite, Yo-Lease. As for Wandy, he’s a reliable number three fantasy starter. Don’t expect more and you won’t be disappointed. 2011 Projections: 10-12/3.65/1.28/180
39. Hiroki Kuroda – Hiroki is basically Wandy without the upside, and Wandy doesn’t really have any upside. Or does he?! Keep in mind that if you draft Kuroda, you will probably grow bored of him and want to drop him. 2011 Projections: 12-9/3.45/1.18/140
40. Ryan Dempster – You might’ve noticed that C.J. Wilson didn’t even make this list. He’ll be in the top 60 starters. It takes me a long time to trust these converted reliever guys. It’s called being stubborn. But you can’t say I’m in denial. As George Bush said to the Iraqi Information Minister, “No sir ree Bob!” 2011 Projections: 14-11/3.85/1.30/190
