Fantasy Baseball Advice

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2010 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2010 Rockies Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of Purple Row.

1) I really liked Chris Iannetta’s promise for 2010 going into November, then Olivo happened.  What kind of ABs do you see Iannetta now getting?  What kind of numbers?

Despite little statements here and there in the traditional media about Spring Training determining the amount of playing time for both catchers, it’s hard to see how Olivo will overcome Iannetta. Olivo hits for more power, but he also takes hacks at pitches that hit the ground in front of home plate. Iannetta knows how to get on base, and bringing up his low batting average in 2009 is not the way to start an argument on who should be the Rockies’ starting catcher. With a bit more normal BABIP, Iannetta’s average will rise to the .250-.260 range. A season similar to his 2008 campaign (.264/.390/.505) would cement his place as the Rockies’ starter well into the future.

2) The Rockies are a dream team of upside for fantasy baseball.  Besides Iannetta, there’s Eric Young Jr., Dexter Fowler and Carlos Gonzalez.  The problem with lots of upside is usually managers just want producers in there — Barmes, Spilborghs, Smith, etc.  Will Young get 400 ABs without a 80 pound slab of deer meat falling from the sky onto Barmes?  Will Fowler and CarGo get 500 ABs each?  What kind of numbers do you see for these three in 2010? (Note: This question was asked before the Rockies announced Young would probably start the year in the minors.)

It’ll be hard for EY Jr. to gain that much playing time with Spilborghs and Smith able to backup the outfield corners and Barmes the starting second baseman. He’ll also receive a bit of a test from utility man Ryan Freel in Spring Training. And if the Rockies still have interest in Fernando Tatis, EY Jr. may find himself in the minors.

Fowler and CarGo are the starters in center and left, so 500 ABs for each isn’t out of the question. CarGo seems to be further along at this point with a strong final two months of the season. If you’re looking for stolen bases, Fowler should be a good flier (though he’ll also have a high number of CS), and you may just be surprised with what else he puts up.

3) I’ve got Rocky Mountain high-apple-pie-in-the-sky hopes for Ian Stewart. Tell me my meds haven’t got me thinking all crazy again.

Your meds haven’t messed with your thinking. . . well, not that much. Stewart’s going to be the starting third baseman without any competition since Garrett Atkins is plying his trade with the Orioles now. It’d be nice to see Stew strike out less and bring up his low line drive percentage (14.1%) in order to use that potential we’ve seen since he was drafted in 2003.

4)  Jorge de la Rosa’s FIP was 3.91 while he rocked a 4.38 ERA, so something was amiss.  Looks like it might be his strand rate, but his free passes sure don’t help.  His Ks are tantalizing for fantasy, but he also looks very risky.  What do you see for him in 2010?

I see a more confident De La Rosa taking the mound with numbers around the same as his 2009 ones. He’s going to be relied on heavily with Ubaldo Jimenez and Aaron Cook at the front of the rotation and Jeff Francis returning from a lost 2009 season.

5) Denver is home to hundreds of microbreweries, but what’s your favorite Rockies-themed beer?  A) Franklin Mor-Ales A) Helton’s Jesus Lager C) Stale Hawpes

Franklin Mor-Ales, because we still expect more from him, either out of the bullpen or in the rotation.

Denard Dawg doesn’t seem to have a bad rap.  He has no rap.  Denard Span gets about as much press as fencing in the high school newspaper sports section.  Span’s in the shadow of everyone, not just his teammate, the 7-foot-1 Loek van Mil (who’s supposedly very TALLented).  Denard couldn’t even get hit on by a waitress at a pool bar.  No one wants the guy that barely gets 10 homers or 20 steals.  Like the reviews said for Mr. Caps debut album, BORING.  It’s true, Span doesn’t have enormous upside.  He’s like the 7 1/2 floor in Being John Malkovich, his ceiling and floor are very close to each other.  That doesn’t have to be a bad thing.  Everyone on your team doesn’t need to be a guy that can hit 30 homers or steal 30 bases.  His numbers last year were 97/8/68/.311/23.  That looks boring, but looks can be deceiving.  Last year, Span ranked 81st overall on Point Shares, sandwiched between Carlos Lee and Michael Bourn.  On ESPN’s Player Rater, he ranked 16th overall for outfielders, between Double I and Shin-Soo Choo.  So what can we expect from Span in 2010 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

For 2010, CHONE has Span at 81/7/57/.294/20; James has him at 94/7/63/.300/25.  I think they’re both too conservative.  I have him projected at 100/10/70/.300/22.  Last year, Span’s HR/FB was 5.9%.  That seems low.  Maybe not by a whole lot, but to get into the low teens in homers, he doesn’t need to do much.  Then you throw in Target Field, the Twins new park.  It’s small.  It’s being compared to Fenway.  No one has any idea how it will play until it starts playing.  For all anyone knows there will be a reverse Jetstream.  But nothing is screaming to me that Span can’t get to 10 homers or past that threshold.  Runs?  They’ll be there.  He had a .392 OBP in 676 plate appearances.  With those on base skills, there’s no one taking over for him at the top of the order, leaving him in front of Hudson, Mauer and Morneau.  His steals are a little wonky.  He had 23 last year, but was caught 10 times.  On the Bill James Speed Score, Span had a 6.5.  Figgins was at 6.7 and Grandy was 6.1.  So Span has the speed to steal more bases.  I’m guessing he doesn’t get the reads or good first steps.  Those things can be adjusted with the right coach and/or dragon slayer.  So I wouldn’t predict a 30 steal season, but I wouldn’t be surprised by one either.  Finally, three outfielders being drafted near Span, according to Mock Draft Central, are Nyjer Morgan, Garrett Jones and Rajai Davis.  Steals, question mark, steals… Span’s not a question mark or just speed.  Over at ESPN, they’re considering Bourn, Nyjer and Kubel around the same time.  Steals, steals and cheap power you can find off waivers.  A leadoff guy with a great OBP and good speed in a solid lineup… Yeah, Span’s boring as crap but he’s also a fantasy sleeper.

Some of you will be drafting your fantasy baseball teams over at ESPN and that’s cool.  I don’t mind their drafting and league setups.  Plus, they’re free.  If you don’t like your team, do like 98% of the other people at ESPN and abandon your team in May.  But when you’re drafting at ESPN, you’re confronted by their rankings.  It’s important to know what they’re saying, so you can exploit the rankings for your greater good.  I’m going off my top 100 for 2010 fantasy baseball and top 300.  So here’s some random turd nuggets from the ESPN 2010 fantasy baseball rankings:

Carl Crawford – 8 at ESPN, 19 here.  Before Miggy Cabrera, Tex, Longoria, Howard… Buh-but, Grey, isn’t 1st base deep? Yeah, and steals from an outfielder are shallow?  Oh-kay.  Because I have a photographic memory and no actual evidence to prove this, you’re gonna have to take my word for it.  Last year, Crawford was ranked somewhere in the 40s by ESPN.  Then he has a career year and he’s ranked 8th.  ESPN’s three year averages to figure out projections are done by multiplying the last year by three.

Ichiro Suzuki – 23 at ESPN, 43 here.  Probably the worst value player that is always overrated.  You need a .277 average to be competitive.  Ichiro best attribute is he can turn your average up to 11; it’s pointless.

Jose Reyes – 40 at ESPN, 18 here.  See my comment about Crawford for why they have Reyes this low.

Curtis Granderson – 55 at ESPN, 34 here.  Clara Bell wrote an interesting piece the other day about how Grandy could hit 35 homers and steal 20 bases but he’s NOT a top fifty draft option.  And, by interesting, I mean you really can’t make this shizz up.  You have to be an ESPN Hindsighter to read the whole thing, so I’ll Cliff Note it for you.  Karabell argues that Grandy is such a negative on average that he’lll cost your team dearly for those 35 homers and 20 steals.  As I’ve mentioned previously, you could have found 25 outfielders who contributed 20 steals, but only ten outfielders, who retain outfield eligibility for 2010, that had 30 homers.  Grandy fell in both categories.  Only three other outfielders did.  Also, nowhere does he mention that Granderson was about fifty points off his career BABIP and should hit closer to .275.  I don’t expect Karabell to know anything about BABIP, except Cockcroft, another ESPN Hindsighter, just wrote an article about how Granderson was unlucky with BABIP.  Maybe Karabell was too busy with a Michael Bolton from Office Space Lookalike Contest to read it.

Brandon Webb – 81 at ESPN, 175 here.  ESPN has Webb ahead of Cain, Ubaldo, Hamels, Wandy and Kershaw… As for why they ranked Webb this high, I think there’s a good chance they just totally forgot about last year.  Or maybe when they were ranking Webb, Berry farted and everyone laughed, causing them to skip over Webb’s name.

Howie Kendrick – 105 at ESPN, 200 here, about 100 picks before I have him.  Kendrick’s a good average bet that hasn’t put together one full year at the major league level.  No, thanks.

Todd Helton – 154 at ESPN, 261 here.  According to Point Shares, Helton will earn -3.38 Points.  He comes in with a -1.5 Points for homers and -1.2 for RBIs.  Nice!

Ian Stewart – 199 at ESPN, 100 here.  I’m totally waiting for them to write the Ian Stewart sleeper post, quoting their own facacta rankings.  Guys, I look like Michael Bolton, and I think Stewart’s great value ranked at 199! Actually, now that I think about it, the best thing you can do with ESPN’s rankings is send all of your leaguemates there to study them.

The duality of man:

It’s all Peaches and Herb when you can get the best out of both worlds. Well, fantasy baseball wise that’s either “Martin Prado” good or “Jerry Hairston” awkward. For fantasy pitching, a guy doesn’t necessarily become more draftable based on dual position, but I’m here to “learn” you something about spot starting from the RP spot. I once heard that relief pitching is an art form. It looks easy, but hey, not everyone can paint. Hell, I color way outside the lines.  Here is a list of strapping young lads that can contribute from the depths of your roster by chucking the ball and having both SP/RP eligibility:

Robinson Tejada – ( 29 relief appearances/ 6 sp)
No joke — I heard his dad’s name is actually Miguel Cano. Here is a guy that intrigues me to no end. High K rate, low HR’s allowed (4 in 73 innings). KC may stretch him out to be a number 5. Beware of a high walk rate and a big jump in innings but he can contribute. Proj: 8 wins 4.05 era 125 K’s in 120 innings

Brett Myers – ( 8rp/10 sp)
Huge risk/reward with his change of battery mates…wink. Will only be 30 by year’s end, playing for a multi-yr deal, definite rotation spot. To me, he has all the opportunity sitting in front of him. Decent in-season fill or late round flyer. Proj: 10 wins 4.2 era 145 K’s

Kenshin Kawakami – ( 7 rp/ 25 sp)
Was cruising along and then Hudson went all Moscow and came back from the DL. Should enter the spring with a rotation spot. Otherwise, it’s to the pen to form the dynamic Asian dance team, Ken-N-Tak. Not a huge K potential and low ERA promise. You could do worse for a 5th starter. Proj: 10 wins 3.89 era 125 K’s

Justin Masterson – (26rp/16sp)
Former Sox spec goes to the head of the class — Too bad it’s in remedial English. Huge K potential (think a K/inning), reminds me a lot of a RH Jonathan Sanchez. Legitimate stuff — has potential to be a future number 3. Innings shouldn’t be a worry. Will have every chance to fail for a 90 loss team. End of draft sleeper. Grey’s Projections at top 80 starters for 2010 post.

Clayton Richard – ( 12rp/ 26sp)
He is another top spec that goes into the fire of a losing organization. Great potential to pitch for a budding rotation. Not a huge K guy and he will walk his share. Plays in an ERA friendly environment and has been getting a pretty good ride in the pre-draft hype machine. I‘d buy that for a dollar. Great match up guy for home starts. Proj: 7 wins 3.90 era 100 K’s

Aaron Laffey – ( 6rp/13sp)
Personally, I love this guy. Same b-day as me and same last name as the navy ship my grandfather was on in WWII. But anywho — to me, he is the “Clayton Richard” of the AL and has a chance to shine… but for a bad team. Not a huge peripheral help guy, walks a ton, no K’s. Could be a sneaky source of wins for Cleveland. Just needs to stop walking the ballpark. Proj: 9 wins 4.30 era 110 k’s

Derek Holland – (12rp/21sp)
Texas has a potent offense: this, we know. Here is a guy to do the opposite of Richard: start on the road. Has a great arsenal of pitches, got worn down by year’s end. ERA should drop from above 6 (or I would hope). Decent K/9 and needs to work on his third pitch. If the team is away, Holland should play. Proj: 9 wins 4.35 era 125 K’s

Brian Duensing – ( 15rp/9sp)
Great spot guy late last year. If he misses a rotation spot, he joins (in my opinion) the best bullpen in baseball. Not a huge K threat, but misses bats. A long relief candidate who can snipe a few victories. Expect great peripherals, low ERA. Proj: 9 wins 3.75 era 90 K’s

Brandon Morrow – ( 16rp/10sp)
Holy potential! I have been waiting for him for 2 years to do something. He now gets a chance in a very young rotation in Toronto, albeit in the toughest division in baseball. Health and stamina are an issue (diabetic). Has huge K and low ERA potential. A must grab for last round fodder or for “cause I told you so” bragging rights. Grey’s Projections at top 80 starters for 2010 post.

Francisco Liriano – (5rp/24sp)
This guy was awful a year removed from TJ surgery and I think he actually pitched with Tommy John’s arm. Another year may do him good. He will struggle with command and is spotty when runners are on base. Consistent arm angle a must. I’m avoiding him at all costs unless I can get him late — like on the waiver wire after the draft. Buyer beware but great K potential from the once most hyped SP since Tim Leary. Projections found at Grey’s Liriano Sleeper post.

Others to think about that qualify: Jamie Moyer(5rp/25sp), Bobby Parnell(60rp/8sp), Tom Gorzellany(15rp/7sp)

We all know Chone Figgins loves stealing 2nd base, but he might be starting early this year. After a brisk calisthenic session, Don Wakamatsu decided to try Figgy at 2nd base with Jose Lopez shifting to 3rd base.  The Mariners haven’t had this amount of speed at 2nd base since they faced David Eckstein and Ichiro moved up 50 steps.  Suddenly, Figgins’s Sparky Anklebiter power and top tier speed looks much better.  It would catapult him to the top 7 of the top 20 2nd basemen for 2010.  I’d rank him right after Cano and in a promising tier.  Going for steals at 2nd base wouldn’t hurt nearly as much at 3rd base.  But he’s not there yet and, frankly, I don’t think the move to 2nd is going to happen, barring an injury to Jose Lopez.  When you have players comfortable at their position, you don’t mess with it for s’s and g’s.  But since we’re going down this road, it helps Jose Lopez’s value too.  Not as much though. Or maybe Lopez will replace Kotchko at 1st.  Ah, rumors, surrounding me every day.  Anyway, here’s what else is happening in fantasy baseball:

Russell Branyan – Landed with the Indians.  Yippee.  He’s covered in the top 20 1st basemen post that is actually the top 24 1st basemen post.  Now tough actin’ Manny Acta is saying Branyan’s going to play 1st base, LaPorta is going to play left field and Michael Brantley… Well, Brantley’s shizz out of luck.  Brantley’s value obviously plummets if he starts the season in the minors.  It’s still early so things can happen.  Doesn’t look good right now.  My real question is how did Manny Acta get another job managing a Major League team?  Did he really impress that many people in Washington?  A career .385% managerial winning percentage sparked interest?  For some reason this made me think of my grocery shopping.  Expectations are super low when I go grocery shopping.  I buy frozen fried chicken and toilet paper.  That covers everything.  Literally.  But no one’s hiring me to do their grocery shopping.  This is Manny Acta.  He’s a manager that buys easy-to-prepare fried chicken and toilet paper.

Eric Gagne – The Canadian ex-Dodger admitted to using HGH.  He should’ve blamed it on socialized medicine.

Felipe Lopez – Looks headed to the Cards.  Does nothing to his value, which is already mentioned in the top 20 2nd basemen.

Brandon Lyon/Matt Lindstrom – The Astros know they’re going to win 70 games, they’re just not sure who’s going to close them.  My guess is Lyon will get the majority of the saves.  Ed Wade said, “I know there have been a lot of successful teams over the last dozen years or so who have used more than one closer to get to the finish line.” Look at Ed checking his facts or so!  As of right now, I’d draft both of them.  If you draft Lyon, you should try and get Lindstrom too.  In fantasy baseball and S&M, they call this handcuffing.  If you play with people like me, your leaguemates will immediately draft Lindstrom right after you draft Lyon.  Miserable cork-soakers!

Cameron Maybin – He’s excited to hit 2nd this year.  That makes two of us, friend.

Francisco Liriano – Francisco Liriano reported he’s healthy and eager to take the mound.  Only problem is Liriano reported that in January of 2008.  I only point this out as a reminder to keep health reports, positive and negative, in perspective during Spring Training.  Every year the Royals are a contender in February, Boof Bonser’s lost weight, Milton Bradley’s turned over a new leaf, Manny’s going to retire and Jesus Colome reminds a reporter it’s Hay-Zeus.