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Last year, Vaughn Grissom went 19/32/.320-ish. That’s “ish” because I didn’t feel like doing the math for batting average. Plus, it’s goofy and those aren’t really his stats. Well, they are, kinda. That’s his stats if you combine High-A, Double-A and MLB numbers. Slightly misleading, but *thinking* Is it misleading? Okay, the major leagues aren’t High-A. I get that, but, and here’s when I say anything very controversial: For hitters, are they that different, when a guy is only 21 years old? If a guy is 28 years old in High-A, then his stats mean nothing. But if a guy is 21 years old, then what’s the difference where he’s playing if he can hit in the majors? Once a guy shows he can hit in the majors, then it validates everything that came before, when he’s young. I keep doing that caveat, because it is very important. A guy who is 30 years old hitting well in the minors may or may not transfer to the majors *cough* Joey Meneses *cough*. A guy, who is 21 tearing the ball up in the minors, is just good no matter where he’s going to play. You see it in all the future stars. It’s not the only path. A guy can struggle, then find something that clicks. But when it clicks that early anywhere in pro ball, he’s has got a high ceiling. That the Braves don’t seem to want to bring back Dansby Swanson implies they know it too. I’m only surprised they haven’t yet locked up Vaughn Grissom in a 12-year, 19-million dollar type deal. So, what can we expect from Vaughn Grissom for 2023 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
Psyche! Before we get into the Vaughn Grissom sleeper post, just wanted to announce that I’ve begun to roll out my 2023 fantasy baseball rankings on our Patreon. It’s an early Hanukkah miracle! Or late Hanukah miracle, depending on when Hanukkah is this year. The Jews should really decide on one day to start Hanukah each year, and stick with it. It’s better for branding. Anyway II, the Vaughn Grissom sleeper:
First off, the power. It’s burgeoning, as they say after they check a thesaurus for words that mean increasing. Last year, Vaughn Grissom hit five homers in 141 ABs. Small sample, but crack into it: Launch Angle was 9, and his fly ball rate was 30.6. Both numbers are fine, passable, will work for him. It was coupled with a 15.2% HR/FB, which honestly feels a bit high, and that’s not good. Thankfully, his Double-A Launch Angle 12.3 and fly ball rate 31.6% say he can actually hit a few more fly balls. You don’t want a guy with his speed hitting all fly balls, but the power is going to make the difference here between him being a 10/20 guy and a 20/20 guy. 32% fly ball rate, 10-12% HR/FB rate and a .270 average and I just described Xander Bogaerts. That’s right, Vaughn Grissom is bogarting Bogaerts. That’s last year’s Bogaerts, by the by, not previous years. So, even in my wildest dreams I can’t get Grissom to 20 homers, but, at 21 years old, he’s getting better — burgeoning! — so 20 homers or more is one of the possibilities for his outcome. Maybe a 10% possibility, but it’s there.
There’s something to being the worst guy on a loaded team. Vaughn Grissom is likely looking at a bottom third of the order type lineup spot, which hurts his counting stats, not gonna lie about that, but there should be guys all around him who are great, and when you’re the worst bat in a lineup, you will get challenged a lot. The opposing pitchers aren’t trying to put Grissom on base for Acuña and the top of the order. So, RBIs and runs might be meh, but he’s going to see so many solo-home-run-meatball pitches. Random prediction alert! He hits the most solo homers for guys who have 20 or less homers next year. Can you bet on that? No? Okay, well, still. Also, not to put that stank eye, bad-luck stare on anything, but Acuña’s not exactly the bastion of good health, which would get Grissom up to the top of the order pretty quickly, if he hits like I think he will.
Thankfully, the speed might be low-end 20 steals. Quickness and steals don’t correlate always, but he should be fast enough to steal plenty of bags. The limited pickoff moves might help him since he’s young and might not be familiar with pitchers’ moves. Also, as mentioned in the lineup order section, Grissom should be in a place in the game where Snitker’s like, “Daddy wants you to run now, so RUN!”
Oh, the average isn’t .270 or lower. It’s more like .270 or higher. Last year in those 141 MLB at-bats, he hit .291. Maybe the .350 BABIP is a tad high. He’s fast though, so it might not be absurd. His 21.8% strikeout rate at 21 years of age is really the flashing light saying, “Hey, look at this! This is really good!” He didn’t come anywhere close to qualifying, but, if he had, his contact rate on balls in the zone of 89.9% would’ve been top 30 in the majors, around that of Andrew Vaughn (no relation) and Jeff McNeil. His strikeout rates in the minors were incredibly good, hovering between 11% and 14% depending on the stop in pro ball. He’s a guy you’re going to love to have in fantasy, and the Braves will because he’s going to keep getting on base, and making things happen. Not shizz happens, but good things happen.
Finally, Vaughn Grissom is being drafted around 205 overall. That deserves a paugh, i.e., a point and laugh. He’s, ya know, a 15/25/.270 hitter. That’s kinda more valuable than a 200th overall pick. For 2023, I’ll give Vaughn Grissom projections of 67/16/72/.286/24 in 517 ABs with a chance for much more.
