Never judge a book by its cover. An age old mantra yet one that is often dismissed. There’s a reason the advertising industry is a billion dollar one, and that Karen in marketing is cashing fat checks. We judge from the cover in all facets of life. Because of that, we make irrational decisions at times. No different in fantasy baseball. We get swayed by the batting average plastered on the MY TEAM page or the constant zeroes from what you thought was your fantasy hero. Sometimes digging deeper can shed some light upon the situation. Trent Grisham of the San Diego Padres has been dropped in 13.7% of ESPN leagues over the past week. Why? Is it a time to kill Grisham or keep reading?
Grisham is 23 years old, 6′ 0″, 205 pounds, and bats from the left side. He was selected by the Brewers with the 15th overall pick in the 2015 MLB draft. In 2019, Grisham was traded to the San Diego Padres.
Throughout his minor league career, Grisham routinely had a walk rate in the teens and had highs of 13 homers and 37 stolen bases in a season. The batting average was in the .230 range, but in 2019, it improved from .233 to .254 in Double-A, then to .381 in Triple-A. The ISO also improved, from .104 to .250 in Double-A, then to .396 in Triple-A. As a result, he got the call to The Show and produced a .231/.328/.410 slash with 6 homers, 1 stolen base, .179 ISO, 10.9% walk rate, and 26.2% strikeout rate.
So far in 23 games and 97 plate appearances in 2020, Grisham is slashing .228/.365/.456 with 4 home runs, 4 stolen bases, 16.5% walk rate, 24.7% strikeout rate, and .228 ISO.
The power/speed combo is for real, and so is the plate discipline. He may never be a high batting average guy, though.
The batted ball data shows that he doesn’t hit many ground balls, as the GB/FB ratio is 0.71. That’s consistent with the prior three years of minor league data. In 2019, Grisham had a .381 batting average fueled by a .384 BABIP, but that seems to be an outlier, as the other two years showed a batting average in the .230 range with a .290-ish BABIP. He could probably have a higher BABIP if he hit more groundballs to utilize his 94th percentile sprint speed. But chicks dig the long ball. Unfortunately, the statcast data isn’t poor, but itsn’t great either. While the xSLG and barrel % are both in the 80 percentile range, the exit velocity and hard hit % are in the 50s.
Where I get pretty excited, though, is the plate discipline numbers. The swinging strike rate is only 7.2% while the chase rate is only 19%. The overall contact rate is 80.4% while contact in the strike zone is 87.3%. He’s shown this ability throughout his whole career so far.
Where Grisham has been struggling is against LHP. In 14 games and 19 at-bats, he has a .105/.190/.105 slash with a 28.6% strikeout rate. Yuck. But there’s reason for optimism, outside of the small sample size.
| YEAR | LEVEL | PA | BA | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | R | 47 | .316 | .435 | .395 |
| 2016 | A | 47 | .300 | .391 | .400 |
| 2017 | A+ | 186 | .180 | .335 | .287 |
| 2018 | AA | 104 | .250 | .379 | .357 |
| 2019 | AA/AAA | 164 | .284 | .380 | .546 |
| 2019 | MLB | 36 | .219 | .306 | .406 |
| 2020 | MLB | 21 | .105 | .190 | .105 |
He’s had his struggles against lefties for sure, but he’s also shown the ability to hit them as well. Let’s not forget that he’s still only 23 years old. As he gets more reps, he should improve, especially coupled with his excellent plate discipline and eye at the plate. He also mashes righties to the tune of .267/.413/.567. I remember when Anthony Rizzo couldn’t hit against lefties, but by his fourth year in the league, he was batting .300 against them.
Finally, I’m not too worried about Grisham getting platooned by the Padres. That’s because his defense is excellent. Baseball Savant has him in the 96th percentile for outs above average and 93rd percentile in outfielder jump. Fangraphs has his defensive metrics rated very well also, as the UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) is 3.4, which is tied for second in all of baseball. Mookie Betts leads with a 3.6 UZR.
VERDICT
