Could the Big Red Machine be making a comeback in Cincinnati?
OK, maybe I am putting the cart in front of the horse, but when it comes to young players who are exciting to watch, the Reds are one of the top teams to keep an eye on. This week I am shining a spotlight on three young Cincy players. But spoiler alert, I am NOT going to talk about Elly De La Cruz.
If you play in dynasty leagues, then you should already know all about De La Cruz. The man is a stud and we all know it. If you are new to dynasty league baseball then all you need to know about De La Cruz is he is a player everyone wants on their team. If you can get him, do so. If you already have him, keep him.
Prospects Galore
Entering the 2023 season the Reds had six prospects listed on the MLB.com Top 100 list – De La Cruz, Noelvi Marte, Edwin Arroyo, Cam Collier, Matt McLain, and Andrew Abbott. It appears the Reds love to collect middle infielders as De La Cruz, Marte, Arroyo and McLain can all play shortstop while Collier is a third baseman and Abbott is a left-handed pitcher.
But I am not here to talk about all six of those players. Out of that group, only McLain is featured this week. Joining him is former top 100 prospect Jonathan India and Spencer Steer, who finished the 2022 campaign as the Reds’ No. 7 prospect, according to MLB.com.
Let’s get to the breakdowns of each player.
Jonathan India
| YEAR | AB | HR | RBI | SB | BB | SO | AVG | ALG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 532 | 21 | 69 | 12 | 71 | 141 | .269 | .376 | .459 |
| 2022 | 386 | 10 | 41 | 3 | 31 | 94 | .249 | .327 | .378 |
| 2023 | 240 | 6 | 31 | 12 | 26 | 49 | .279 | .360 | .417 |
Bouncing Back
When I did my 2023 Top Keepers – Second Basemen breakdown, this is what I wrote about India: “I fully expected Jonathan India to build upon his 2021 Rookie of the Year season. Instead, he regressed badly, slashing .249/.327/.378 with 10 homers and 41 RBI. But he slashed .261/.351/.400 with six home runs and 26 RBI over his final 63 games and I believe he will be closer to his 2021 form next season.”
For once, I may have gotten something right. Through India’s first 62 games this year, he is slashing .279/.360/.417 with six homers, 31 RBI, and 12 steals, a 162-game pace of 15 homers, 81 RBI, and 31 steals. His first 62 games nearly matches his output over his final 63 games last year.
Trying Too Hard
| YEAR | HR% | SO% | BB% | EV | HARD HIT% |
| 2021 | 3.3 | 22.4 | 11.3 | 87.5 | 38.6 |
| 2022 | 2.3 | 21.8 | 7.2 | 84.9 | 29.0 |
| 2023 | 2.2 | 17.6 | 9.4 | 89.2 | 40.9 |
| MLB AVERAGE | 3.1 | 22.8 | 8.5 | 88.2 | 38.8 |
After his Rookie of the Year campaign in 2021, the wheels fell off the truck for India in 2022., his numbers drastically dropping across the board.
“I was trying to make up for a lot of guys that we lost,” India told the Cincinnati Enquirer late last season. “We lost a lot of big-time bats in our lineup. I started thinking the spotlight was on me to do the damage and do more of it. We’re missing Castellanos, Winker, Suárez, all these guys that do damage in the lineup.
“They weren’t there, so I was like, I’ve got to pick up the slack a little, hit for more power. It got me in trouble. Now I’m just getting back to my game, hitting the ball hard wherever it’s pitched.”
Back to Who He Is
India has power, but instead of trying to hit home runs as he did for much of last year, he has returned to the approach that earned him the ROY honor in 2021. Instead of trying to pull the ball, India is now pulling the ball at a career low percentage of 31.3% while going to the opposite field a career-high 19.3% of the time while not sacrificing power as half of his home runs have gone to right field. Only one of his homers went to right field last season and only three in 2021.
As you can see above, he is more selective at the plate as well, striking out only 17.6% of the time while increasing his walk rate by 2.2% from last year. When India makes contact, he is doing so consistently harder than at any point in his career. His average EV is up to 89.2 mph and his hard hit% is 40.9%
Will India continue his stolen base pace? Probably not, but he did have 12 his rookie season and the new rules are proving to lead to more steals, so reaching 25 steals is not out of the question. Will India reach 15 homers and 81 RBI? I fully expect him to and possibly surpass that pace, especially the home runs considering the park he plays in. I’ve remained in India’s corner throughout last season and I continue to remain in his corner.
Spencer Steer
| YEAR/LEVEL | AB | HR | RBI | SB | BB | SO | AVG | ALG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| College | 595 | 12 | 129 | 14 | 72 | 88 | .298 | .401 | .435 |
| Minors | 1,094 | 51 | 174 | 17 | 140 | 227 | .268 | .363 | .483 |
| 2022 | 95 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 11 | 26 | .211 | .306 | .326 |
| 2023 | 224 | 8 | 32 | 5 | 25 | 48 | .286 | .365 | .482 |
While at Oregon power was never a big part of Steer’s game. In 595 college at-bats, he hit only 12 homers. And his career as a Duck wasn’t anything spectacular until his junior season when he slashed .349/.456/.502 with six home runs, 57 RBI, and six steals in 56 games as the team’s everyday shortstop.
Finding Power
After the Twins selected Steer in the 2019 draft, he slashed .280/.385/.424 with four home runs combined at Rookie and Class A. But when the 2020 minor league season was shut down due to COVID, Steer worked with the Twins hitting instructors to drive the more with more consistency. The results were quickly seen in 2021 as he hit a combined 24 home runs with 66 RBI in 110 games between High Class A and Double A.
The power continued in 22 as he slugged 23 homers and drove in 75 runs while slashing .274/.364/.515 at Double A and Triple A. Steer earned a spot in the Futures Game and, liking the power Steer was showing off, the Reds acquired him at the trade deadline for Tyler Mahle. The trade appears to be a win for the Reds as Steer is sitting on eight homers through his first 60 games.
Feasting on Breaking Balls
Helping Steer and his power stroke is the fact he is feasting on breaking balls right now. Last season with the Reds he hit .171 with a .229 slugging percentage with 10 strikeouts in 35 at-bats against breaking pitches. This season has been a completely different story as he is slugging .545 and hitting .284 against breaking pitches, smashing five home runs and eight doubles in 88 at-bats.
Steer is also doing better against fastballs, going from a .218 average and .327 slugging percentage to .297/.449 this season.
Third Base? First Base? Left Field?
At Oregon, Steer played shortstop his junior year but also saw time as a third baseman and second baseman, and he continued to play those positions in the Twins’ organization. When traded to Cincinnati, Steer has transitioned to be more of a third and first baseman. But with first baseman/third baseman Christian Encarnacion-Strand banging on the door to be the next prospect recalled by the Reds (and a possible return of Joey Votto), Steer earned a start in left field earlier this week.
Considering Steer was a shortstop in college and early in his pro career, he has the athleticism to transition to left field and be a decent player there and keep his bat in the lineup. After struggling in his brief stint with the Reds last season, Steer has a 3.2% home run percentage this year with a solid 19.1% strikeout rate and a nice 10% walk rate while producing a 38.4% hard hit% and an average EV of 89.6 mph.
Steer doesn’t do one thing great, but he produces a solid slash line, is able to steal a base here and there, and has good power. Add in the fact that he can play multiple positions and he is a nice player to have on your dynasty team, especially if you play in a deep league.
Matt McLain
| YEAR/LEVEL | AB | HR | RBI | SB | BB | SO | AVG | ALG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| College | 458 | 16 | 85 | 16 | 55 | 111 | .280 | .360 | .478 |
| Minors | 615 | 32 | 117 | 47 | 116 | 185 | .267 | .393 | .512 |
| 2023 | 96 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 28 | .354 | .404 | .531 |
Matt McLain has been on the radar of pro scouts for years. In 2018 he was selected in the first round (25th pick) out of high school by the Arizona Diamondbacks but instead chose to attend UCLA. As a Bruin, McLlain had a career OPS of .838 and topped 1.000 in both the shortened 2020 campaign and again in 2021. The Reds then snagged McLain in the 2021 draft with the 17th overall pick and gave him a signing bonus of $4.625 million.
Slow Adjustment
Assigned to Rookie ball after signing, McLain made things look easy, slashing .429/.429/1.000 in two games at the level, leading him to be promoted to High A ball. He finished the season at that level, slashing .273/.387/.424 with three homers, 19 RBI, and 10 steals.
But in Double A in 2022, McLain struggled at the plate. In 103 games, he slashed .232/.363/.453 while posting a 28% strikeout rate, way higher than the 15% rate he had his final year at UCLA. If there was a bright side to 2022, it was the fact he drew 70 walks in 452 plate appearances (15.5% rate) while still hitting for power and showing off his speed as he had 17 home runs and 27 stolen bases in 30 attempts.
Blend of Power and Speed
Assigned to Triple A Louisville to begin the 2023 season, McLain torched opposing pitchers to the tune of a .348/.474/.710 slash line with a combination of both power and speed as he socked 12 homes and stole 10 bases in 38 games. His strikeout rate also dropped below 20% while posting a 16.7 walk percentage.
While McLain can hit for power, he is better when he uses his quick and compact swing to regularly produce line drives. And once on base and out in the field, McLain’s speed is the tool that will keep him in the majors. Why? Because he is not going to be a shortstop for the Reds in the future.
No Future in the Infield
While De La Cruz can play third base, opening a spot at shortstop for McLain at the moment, it is only a matter of time before Marte or Arroyo are at short (or De La Cruz). Meanwhile, India is entrenched at second base unless the Reds trade him, leaving a spot in the outfield for McLain.
But playing out there would not be a new venture for McLain as he was the starting center fielder for the Bruins his freshman year. McLain could end up being a great utility player, but I think he has a decent arm and the athleticism to play center field and can envision a future Reds lineup of Steer in left and an infield of De La Cruz, Marte, India, and Encarnacion-Strand in the future for the Reds.
