For all my rankings this year, I have gone along with Major League Baseball’s numberwanging insofar as prospect eligibility is concerned. Within these specialized rules, we find a days-on-roster component and a magical August 14, 2020 demarcation line and I suppose the traditional 50-inning barrier matters as well, although a relief pitcher is much more likely to graduate on time served than innings pitched.
All that is to say: hard pass on MLB’s shizz for the purposes of this list.
The only way forward is to minimize fuzziness and speculation. Also I believe this list functions as a way for deep leaguers to find MiLB eligible relievers on the wire.
One caveat: anyone currently on a starting pitcher path is disqualified. Converted starters make up a big portion of the player pool, so we’ll blend them in here if/when that switch happens but not before.
I’ll also set aside a small group who could switch and quickly leap the ranks like Devin Williams and Jonathan Hernandez have here. I suppose JB Bukauskas qualifies for the switch-and-leap bucket, but he’s in the rankings already because Arizona has clarified they want him in the bullpen this spring. Likewise, Genesis Cabrera and Taylor Hearn are out for the moment because the Cardinals and Rangers have them starting this spring.
Format = Player | Age on 4/1/2021 | Organization
1. RHP James Karinchak | 25 | Cleveland
He of the deep red statcast page, Karinchak is the best strikeout pitcher in baseball, and I think he’s got the big boy job all to himself heading into 2021. I’ve heard people speculating on Nick Wittgren and even Blake Parker along with Emmanuel Clase. Could happen, I guess, if Cleveland hates baseball as much as we give them credit for, but the thing is: Terry Francona wants to win. He wasn’t using Nick frickin Wittgren over Karinchak last year. That was Brad Hand in the middle of a dominant run (0.77 WHIP, 0 HR allowed in 22 innings) getting paid as a closer. Pretty far cry from Wittgrenn or Parker.
It’s true enough that some teams love the cost-suppression value presented by the bad closer strategy, but Cleveland hasn’t been one of those clubs, and Francona hasn’t been one of those managers if he could help it. He’s already acknowledged Karinchak wants the job. As Joe Noga of The Cleveland Plain Dealer reported. “I know [Karinchak’s] big goal this spring is to be pitching at the end of the game,” Francona said. “We’ve got to see how our bullpen looks as it starts to come together and what makes our best bullpen.”
You might read that and think, uh oh he’s looking for anyone but Karinchak to close so he can use him whenever he wants, and maybe you’d be right, but I think they’ve got enough quality arms back there that you don’t need to piss off a team and its fan base by giving the gig to someone who hasn’t earned it on the field. Which is how I read that statement. Makes zero sense to anoint a young guy the closer in February. Say the coach-speak words and let him earn it on the field.
2. RHP Devin Williams | 26 | Milwaukee Brewers
If healthy, he’s the most unhittable reliever in baseball. How that translates to a full season for roto remains to be seen. Would own the top spot if he had a clear path to saves and a clean bill of health. As is, he won’t get started until March 15 as the Crew has planned all along after some arm soreness dampened the end of his fiery 2020.
3. LHP Garrett Crochet | 21 | Chicago White Sox
As long as he’s in the bullpen, Crochet will be gassing up the opposition. He threw a fair few fastballs right down the middle in 2020, but even big leaguers struggle with 100 miles an hour from the left side. If he becomes a starting pitcher and manages to stay healthy while honing his off-speed command and tossing 100 pitches an outing, he’s got True Ace topside.
4. RHP Brusdar Graterol | 22 | Los Angeles Dodgers
Kenley Jansen is not a young man. Nor is he a hard-throwing man. Nor is he a particularly good bet to remain healthy, given the recent heart condition that threatened his career. Graterol is the opposite, except that I wouldn’t really bet on any pitcher to remain healthy, especially one that averages 99 mph on the fastball. His pitches are weird, though. His strikeout rate landed in the 7th percentile among big leaguers in 2020. I don’t think anyone expects him to K just five batters per nine innings (14.8 percent) in the long term, but it’s surprising he doesn’t miss more bats. His whiff rate, according to statcast, was in the first percentile. As in, he’s got the lowest whiff rate in baseball, or negligibly close to it. He throws the sinker almost 70 percent of the time, and it doesn’t move a whole lot, but that’s partly because it doesn’t have time to break, traveling at the speed of sound for just 60 feet six inches.
On the other hand, nobody hits him. Nobody lifts the ball. 0.39 HR/9 is elite. His damage-control, x-stat metrics are all red (good) on the statcast. His WHIP was 0.90 in 2020. If he throws the slider just a little bit more, he’ll get more strikeouts. Nobody touched it last year. He threw 84 sliders in 2020. Batters hit .048 and slugged .048 against those pitches, which had a 37.8 percent whiff rate. That’s a punch out pitch.
Sorry I keep rolling here, but I might as well say here that I love ground balls. If you’re looking for a hidden gem closer option, you could do worse than acquiring an Anthony Bass type. Thanks to shifts and uppercuts, ground balls are mostly outs waiting to happen these days. That groundball rate has to get up around 60 percent before it’s good enough to get a guy a closing gig. Graterol’s was 62.3 percent in 2020. A fly ball pitcher can always get hurt in a game-ending fashion. A ground ball pitcher has to be nickel and dimed. Much harder to do. And his primary weapon is a base-emptying bleeder into the double-play shift. If you’ve got the roster space, I’d send Brusdar’s dynasty owners an offer or two to see if the depressed strikeout rate has anyone doubting (or downright dismissing) his back-end bonafides.
5. RHP Pete Fairbanks | 27 | Tampa Bay Rays
This feels too high for a Tampa pensman without much control, but Fairbanks ended 2020 at the back of that bullpen in the playoffs thanks in large part to a short-arm delivery that gives his high-90’s heater much more deceptiveness than most guys get when throwing that hard.
6. RHP Jonathan Hernandez | 24 | Texas Rangers
Kind of a weird one here because I think he should be the closer in 2021, depending on how Jose LeClerc looks, but I’m starting to wonder if Texas isn’t planning to send him back to the rotation at some point. He’s got a plus slider and functional change to go along with a double-plus fastball, and he demonstrated the kind of command that could command an opportunity to turn a lineup over. That said, unlike Crochet, I’d bump Hernandez a ways down the list if he were redirected to a stater’s path. His proximity to saves is the main reason I’d want him. If he takes the gig, he’s not giving it back.
7. RHP Michael Kopech | 24 | Chicago White Sox
Kopech too feels like an odd fit here. If he’s a reliever full time, he might be the hardest throwing righty in the majors. Pair that with a double-plus slider and we have a profile so potentially dominant the genie can’t return to the bottle. The vibe I get feels like people expect Kopech to return to a starter’s workload sometime in 2021. La Russa recently clarified he’ll try to use him primarily as a multi-inning piece. Seems like a perfect piece to navigate the innings shortage facing all major league teams this year. Also works as a smooth path back to the rotation. Could go any number of ways here, including Kopech being a little too wrapped up in his own head and personal life to really manage a significant career. Maybe that sounds silly. I dunno. Dude got married to and divorced from a reality TV personality in 2020, during the pandemic, and that’s by no means the weirdest thing in his baseball life. He has apparently never seen Bull Durham because he broke his pitching hand in a fight as a slightly younger man. Bit of a Nuke LeLush situation here.
8. LHP Victor González | 25 | Los Angeles Dodgers
Gonzalez got stronger throughout 2020 and was fully dominant by season’s end. Already useful as a streamer slash ratio reducer in many leagues and a gem in league that values Holds, Gonzalez could steal a share of the closer role sometime down the road if/when the Jansen and Treinen types wash out.
9. RHP DeMarcus Evans | 24 | Texas Rangers
Despite an injury setback this spring, Demarcus Evans will be almost universally owned at some point in 2021. As mentioned above, the early season closer figures to be Jonathan Hernandez or Jose LeClerc, but I suspect the intimidating Evans will get his chance at some point and could be a viable piece in any league even if he’s not closing. Plus curveball. Double-plus fastball. Maybe better. He’s listed at 6’4” 270 lbs but looks even bigger as he’s coming down the mound and getting excellent extension. His pitches tunnel well, so it’s just command holding him back, and I think he’s on his way in that area, aided by big leaguers less likely to take and big league umpires more likely to hang in on a tougher guy to see and call.
10. RHP Andes Muñoz | 22 | Seattle Mariners
Tough luck for Muñoz to get hurt just when he was settling into his talent at the highest level. If he comes back strong from Tommy John surgery, he’ll be a hot commodity in dynasty leagues, even with Ken Giles on the roster for 2022. Decent low-cost, injured-list buy for rebuilders.
Thanks for reading! We’ll dive deeper as we continue the list next Sunday.
I’m @theprospectitch on Twitter.
