There are three certainties in life: death, taxes, and fantasy baseball managers panicking when their best players slump to start the season.

Fortunately for some, and not so fortunately for others, all early-season slumps are not created equally.

A hitter going 0-4 one game barely registers for most people. He does it three or four nights in a row, and you’re likely frustrated, but you assume he’ll snap out of it sooner rather than later because, well, that’s baseball. He does it 12 nights in a row, and yeah, you’ll have to ask a Joc Pederson owner how they feel.

Each individual hitter is one of several contributing to a fantasy team’s offense. A slumping hitter might bring down your team’s rate stats and contribute to a lower number of stats accumulated across the board, but individually one hitter is generally incapable of tanking your team’s chances at a successful week.

The same is not true for starting pitchers.

A bad night for a starting pitcher can absolutely wreck your week. Sure, if your other starters piece together a few quality starts, there is a chance you can overcome it. But what about when it’s your ace who crapped the bed? The one guy you’re supposed to be able to count on to offset the poor performances from your more volatile starters?

Well, then you might be in trouble. Or at least it certainly feels that way. Hence, the heightened level of panic after one of your aces strings together a couple or more shaky starts.

In this article, I will look at six high profile starting pitchers who are off to shaky starts, especially by their “ace” standards. The purpose is to determine what level of panic is warranted based on how they’ve performed by looking at more advanced indicators.

Pitcher performance in fantasy leagues is almost universally measured in ERA— a measure of how many runs a pitcher allows per nine innings. It is both a perfect and imperfect measure.

It is perfect because it accurately and very concretely reflects the average number of runs given up by a pitcher when he is in the game. At the same time, it is imperfect because the runs a pitcher allows can be influenced, both positively and negatively, by factors outside of a pitcher’s control, like team defense, ball park factors, and BABIP.

A poor ERA can be either deeply troubling and indicative of poor ability and performance OR it can be a function of poor luck and circumstances. And there lies the problem. It’s a “noisy” stat that requires additional context to gain a clearer picture of a pitcher’s performance and ability.

When evaluating pitchers, I immediately throw ERA out of the window. Actually, that’s not true. I look at it, but only to determine the extent to which pitchers are over and underperforming. Not that it tells me who those pitchers are. I use other stats and metrics for that.

Here are a few of the stats and metrics to more accurately and effectively evaluate pitcher performance outside of ERA. Each provides additional context related to performance and ability. They will be used for evaluative and comparative purposes throughout the article:

NOTE: In the charts below, BLUE means the pitcher is below water from the previous season. RED means they are performing above the level of the previous season. Darker tones are indicative of big gaps. Light tones are indicative of small to minimal gaps. 

Cole Ragans, SP KCR

Ragans is the big outlier among the pitchers listed here because, unlike the others who are experiencing slippage across the board, he’s actually performing better in a number of meaningful indicators. His velocity has ticked up, he’s missing more bats, and his K/BB ratio is now elite. All strong signs that Ragans will be more than fine, provided he is able to get and stay healthy. Unfortunately, he was scratched from his most recent start due to what is being reported as tightness in his groin. While the injury is concerning, Ragans’ performance to date is not.

Panic Level: Negative panic. Is there such a thing? I’m actually more bullish than ever, provided the groin issue proves to be minor.

Dylan Cease, SP SDP

Cease is probably the poster child for early season struggles given how great he was in 2024, how high he went in fantasy drafts, and how poorly he has performed to start the year. Fortunately, for those who spent a high pick on him, even though he has experienced slight slippage across the board, everything under the hood still looks good, and his indicators remain overwhelmingly excellent.

Panic Level: Very low. One of the best buy-low targets in baseball at the moment.

Corbin Burnes, SP ARI

This is the guy who worries me most. Burnes’s debut with the Dbacks has largely not gone as planned. He’s been one of the best pitchers in the game for a few years now, and there’s still reason to believe he can turn things around. However, there’s enough troubling evidence under the hood to raise a high level of concern. His velocity is down, he’s less efficient than ever, and his stuff and command have really deteriorated. It’s hard to bet against an elite pitcher who has been so good for so long, but baseball has a way of humbling everyone at some point.

Panic Level: High. The good news is he’s pitched better as of late, and while his velocity is down from 2024, it’s not much lower than it was in 2023 when he was as dialed in as ever. Hopefully, he’s able to build on the success of his past couple of starts and return to form.

Chris Sale, SP ATL

Sale reminded the baseball world what he is capable of when he struck out 10 batters over 7 dominant innings in a recent start against the Rockies. It was the first time he exceeded 5 innings all season, ending an alarming trend of inefficient outings that contributed to an ERA well over 5.00 nearly a full month into the season. While the Rockies are far from baseball royalty at the moment, Sale’s dominant start was not the only indication that he’s still got his old fastball, so to speak. His velocity is intact, his indicators are still elite, and while his Pitching+ has slipped, his Stuff+ is actually up from last season.

Panic Level: Low. Everything under the hood looks rosy, and his most recent start shows he’s still capable of being one of the game’s most dominant pitchers.

Aaron Nola, SP PHI

There has always been a bit of Jekyll and Hyde to Nola, who seems to have an every other year thing going where one year he’s a stud and the next he’s a borderline dud. The ability is always there, just some years the ball seems to fly out of the park on him more than others. This is proving to be one of the years where the ball is flying… like an eagle. Fortunately, for Nola managers, most of the underlying skills remain solid, even though his velocity and stuff are down.

Panic Level: Medium. Nola still looks solid under the hood, but unless he can get the home runs in check this could be another year where he is consistently inconsistent depending on what’s happening with the long ball.

Zac Gallen, SP ARI

Gallen has been one of the league’s most dependable starters for the bulk of his career. He has exactly one season (2021) with an ERA over 3.65 and that proved to be a total outlier. While he looked like he was on the verge of falling off a cliff at the start of last year, he was able to put together yet another vintage Gallen season that was completely in line with career norms. The struggles are back to start this season, and while the skills are still mostly present, it’s hard not to wonder if regression and a career of heavy workloads finally take their toll.

Panic Level: Medium-High, depending on your expectations. He still looks like a quality pitcher, and there’s a chance he just turns it on and does his normal thing. I’ve been expecting a regression since last season, and I think we could finally get one this year. Probably a solid but disappointing 4.00 ERA and the beginning of what could be a downward trend in performance going forward.