Last week, we looked at a few metrics that I like to use when evaluating hitters for fantasy baseball. This week, it’s time to take a look at some of the key pitcher stats that are useful for projecting future performance. If you’re a fantasy nut like me and have several more drafts lined up over the next thirteen days (six more for me, to be exact), it’s probably a good idea to dispense with the jibber jabber and get to it!
With that in mind, here are some things that I look for when evaluating pitchers for fantasy baseball:
• Strikeout and walk rates (K% and BB%): While I mentioned these statistics as being important ones in regards to evaluating hitters, they are even more important for pitchers. The reason is that strikeouts and walks are largely within a pitcher’s control, meaning that they are skill based stats rather than luck based ones. Strikeouts are essentially automatic outs that aren’t reliant on defenses to make plays, while walks are automatic baserunners that can lead to inflated ratios for pitchers. Strikeouts are good. Walks are bad. Water is wet. The more you know! The league average K% has generally been around 19.5% for starting pitchers and 22% for relief pitchers over the last few seasons, while the league average BB% has been a hair over 7% for SPs and around 8.6% for RPs. These rate stats lead us to one of my favorite pitching categories of all, which is…
• Strikeout minus walk percentage (K-BB%): This is simply the difference between strikeout percentage and walk percentage. You might be thinking to yourself, “What about K/9, BB/9, and K/BB? What’s the difference?” Not a whole lot, really. K% and BB% are just a bit more precise since they represent the percentages of strikeouts and walks for the total number of batters faced rather than how many strikeouts and walks a pitcher averages over nine innings (K/9 and BB/9). Basically the same deal when it comes to K/BB vs K-BB%. For example, among starting pitchers who pitched at least 100 innings in 2014, Phil Hughes led MLB (by a significant margin) with a 11.63 K/BB ratio. He was 13th among SPs with a 19.9% K-BB% though. Max Scherzer finished 24th with a 4.00 K/BB ratio, but was 9th among SPs with a 20.9% K-BB%. The K/BB metric reflected Hughes’ elite control, but not his mediocre K-rate. The opposite is true for Scherzer. Which pitcher fared better in 2015? (Hint: he has mismatching eyes and his name rhymes with lax splurger).
• Home Runs per 9 Innings (HR/9): Here’s another one that’s pretty self-explanatory. This represents the number of home runs that a pitcher allows for every 9 innings pitched. I like this stat more than HR/FB because it doesn’t need to be used in conjunction with batted ball data to paint a reasonably clear picture. Anything under 1 HR/9 is pretty solid.
• Batted ball profile: HR/9 falls under this umbrella (though I felt it was worth mentioning separately), as do line drive percentage (LD%), ground ball percentage (GB%), fly ball percentage (FB%), and infield fly ball percentage (IFFB%). For a pitcher, line drives are bad and infield fly balls are good. Grounds balls and fly balls? Depends on the ballpark and defense mostly. A pitcher on the Giants can have success with either tendency (spacious park and solid defense), but a pitcher on the Brewers is better off keeping the ball on the ground (homer friendly park).
• Swinging strike percentage (SwStr%): This represents the percentage of swings and misses generated out of a pitcher’s total number of pitches thrown. This statistic is especially important for identifying strikeout potential in a pitcher as well as the sustainability of a pitcher’s current strikeout rate. The league average SwStr% for a starting pitcher is generally around 9.5% and for a relief pitcher, it’s closer to 11%.
• Average Fastball velocity (FBv): This can be used in conjunction with SwStr% to evaluate a pitcher’s strikeout potential. A pitcher who throws hard is generally able to keep hitters off balance and even forces them to guess in tough counts. The average FBv for MLB starting pitchers is typically around 91.5 mph, while the average velocity is closer to 93 mph for relievers.
• Age and workload: I consider these two things to go hand-in-hand when evaluating pitchers. Pitchers tend to lose velocity as they age (starting as early as the late 20s), and heavy workloads can lead to the same thing, as well as increased injury risk.
• Pitch usage and repertoire: What types of pitches does that pitcher throw and how often does he throw them? A good slider can be a terrific strikeout pitch, but it also tends to put a lot of strain on the elbow. A good change up can lead to sustained success as well as health (Felix Hernandez, Cole Hamels), but those things certainly aren’t guaranteed over the long run (Alex Cobb, Tim Lincecum). It can be useful to keep an eye on pitch types and usage patterns.
• Luck factors: These include categories such as left on base percentage (LOB%) and batting average on balls in play (BABIP). While it’s true that good pitchers tend to produce high strand rates and low BABIPs (with the opposite being true for below average pitchers), these statistics are largely luck based. Be aware of poor luck (e.g. Chris Sale’s .323 BABIP in ’15) and great luck (e.g. John Lackey’s 82.6% LOB%) seasons that are likely to see corrections moving forward.
What things do you prioritize when evaluating pitchers?
