Howdy doody, Razzfolx! I’m back from my annual pilgrimage to discover Japan’s finest convenience store food. I had a lot of fried chicken and udon, which paired well with chu hai while sitting under cherry trees.
I’m happy to be back in the saddle for my award-winning (status: pending) weekly article, which I creatively titled “That’s What I Like.” Because I thought, “If I like something, and if Bruno Mars likes something, it’s probably good, right?” I tried searching for “Versace” on the Player Rater but all I got was “Verlander, Justin.” I don’t like that. So I changed my search criteria to “awesome players only” and the following guys popped out.
Usual disclaimer: we are in small sample size season right now. Anthony Volpe is on pace to hit 80 home runs. Tommy Edman is on pace to hit 100 dingers. Like, grain of salt time, right? These players are best served for your teams that are waiting for a superstar to come back from the IL (see all my Acuna teams). Add at your own risk and discretion.
That’s What I Like
Trent Grisham, OF, NYY: Outfield sucks this year and if you’re like my (Ex)’Perts Team (filled with Razzball staffers), you may have ended up with a largely auto-drafted team because you were trying to mule 64 ounces of chu hai to Kamakura. Grisham feels like he’s been around forever but he’s just 28. Back in the early days of fantasy baseball, when Grey was known as “Gravy Grave”, it was practically “science” that hitters started to flourish in the age 27-28 range. And after 2000 plate appearances, Grisham has turned 28 and seems to be figuring things out. The Yankees are crushing as a team and Grisham has taken their lead to flash an OPS of 1.630. That’s like Barry Bonds-level of wildness. Let me underscore: this is not sustainable. Grisham is not the next coming of Barry Bonds. But he’s a guy who has had 20/20 potential if he could ever actually hit the ball. His batting average over his last 1300 AB is a whopping .191. Yuck. But this year? This year is different! Really. His line drive rate is up at 25%, which is tasty. He’s always been a walk-maven, but what has killed his fantasy value recently is his high K rate and low BABIP. With those line drives, his BABIP is .500! Read: not sustainable. But his average exit velocity is up at 93 mph and he’s had a 10+ barrel% rate for years. Tangent: barrel rate doesn’t mean much if the player is smashing the ball into the ground or straight up in the air. Grisham’s statcast profile looks lovely over the course of his career — he just needs the right angles (no, not 90 degrees). So if you’re the type of player who likes Statcast darlings playing on good teams in bandbox stadiums and are available everywhere — like, what more do you need me to write? Go add him and see if this is the year that he finally puts everything together.
Geraldo Perdomo, SS, ARI: I love that Yellowjackets pairs Christina Ricci and Elijah Wood together — two actors who grew up under the lens and can project those awkward teenage traumas into stellar performances. Perdomo is a former prospect who practically jumped out of the minors and began his MLB development at the age of 22…and has struggled. Very few players get their cup of coffee at age 21 and then join the team full time at 22 and become effective. Perdomo, now 25 with nearly 1500 plate appearances under his MLB belt, is hinting that he’s coming into fruition. What does that look like for your fantasy team? Maybe Luis Arraez at best, with more steal potential? ENYWHEY. Batting average has been an abandoned category for years. There’s such an arms race for power, and now a legs race for steals, and then there are guys like Perdomo who can offer maybe a 5/20 profile with a plus batting average. That said, Perdomo’s always been good at getting on base (aside from his batting performance), with a career 11% walk rate and a 17.5% strikeout rate. In 2025, Perdomo’s swinging at everything, lowering his K rate to 5%, but with the benefit of his batting average soaring to .344. His line drive rate is soaring to 22% and his speed rating is just as good as before. I mean, Ceddane Rafaela is rostered everywhere and yet Perdomo is standing on the sidelines? If Perdomo’s early season rates regress even 20% — which is pretty big — he’s still a .300ish hitter with 20 steal potential. Again, we’re not talking replacements for Elly de la Cruz — we’re talking fill-ins for your broken drafted lineup. Perdomo could be a breakout guy in 2025 if this patten holds up.
Anthony Banda, RP, LAD: Roleless Rob alert! Who’s the best pitcher in MLB right now? It’s actually Anthony Banda, who has notched 3 wins in 5 appearances. Is that sustainable? No. Should Tony Gonsolin’s 16-1 campaign a few years ago have been sustainable? Also no. Who did Gonsolin play for? The Dodgers. Pattern recognized! We talked earlier in the pre-season about how the Dodgers starters were risky because A) most of them were glass cannons, and B) they have like 97 closers. Banda has shown up in the 5th and 6th innings so far, conveniently just in time to register the Win for the “openers” that the Dodgers call the starting rotation. But Win luck isn’t everything — Banda is cruising with an 11 K/9 and a 0.00 ERA (1.14 FIP). And he’s available everywhere. Last year he was pretty good, but just showed up in different times of the game so as to not register as many wins. Banda’s win luck should slow, but if we’re looking at early Roleless Rob candidates, Banda’s a great candidate.
I’m the Problem, It’s Me
This is the part of the article where I trash a superstar. Should I do that in the first week of the season? Nah. If you’ve got a player from the Top 100, you let them warm up, even if they’re looking like Blake Snell. Annual reminder that even during Barry Bonds’ 73-homer campaign, he spent nearly 30% of the season in a slump where he batted about .200 and launched a handful of homers. Gerrit Cole was the perennial top SP year after year despite spending 25-40% of the season having an FIP above 5.00. You draft stars for their hot streaks, because when they’re on, they’re on. Stay the path on any of your top players for at least the next week.
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How are your early teams doing? Drop me a line down in the comments and we’ll see if we can’t improve your team a bit.
Hi Blair,
1. I always tell my wife that it’s hard to connect the dots until after the events. I had both Casey Mize and Carlos Rodon on my staff; so of course I started Rodon and sat Meyers. the Tigers won 6-2
Was there any quantitative way, or any metric(s), that I could now use, having seen this event, to my advantage in knowing when to stream and went to start. Probably not, but I thought I’d ask.
Do you have any rules on whether to start or sit pitchers?
PS Rodon was +$30 and Mize was -4.5
2. Would you and try and trade Rodon? Would someone want Rodon and/or AJS? Who would you ask for?
3. Are Mitchel Parker or Kumar Rocker of any long term value?
4. Would you waive Will Warren?
Thanks!!
Martin
Hey Martin!
1) If there was a scientific way to predict pitcher performance, then there’d be no casinos and betting businesses :) DFS players understand that even great baseball players have about a 30-40% chance of reaching their “peak” performance on a given day. These baseball players have probably a 75-80% chance of being “average” on a given day. And a 20% chance of being totally useless. As for rules for pitchers, I keep it easy in my normal leagues: A) Start your studs; B) start questionable players only in favorable matchups, C) avoid rain and Coors field when possible.
2) Rodon is having a tougher start but nothing to worry about. His xERA and xFIP are below 4.00 and his K rate is high — I hold.
3) Yes to both, but rookies need time to develop. I wouldn’t want them on an active roster in non-dynasty leagues, but in dynasty, you’ll need to be patient.
4) Yeah, he’s not a stellar target for this year. If he heats up later, he’ll likely be available.
Good luck!
What to do with Jake McCarthy? 12 team dynasty 5×5…drop him for Grisham, Friedel, or even DeLuca…thank you!
in a dynasty, you gotta hold with diamond hands! 0 for 22 ain’t good, and I know you’re hurting. But his K rate is super low and his walk rate is high. His hard hit rate is actually the second highest of his career…things will start falling sooner than later