Choosing the right closer is hard enough when there is only one to choose on draft day. Tons of factors to guide your hand… Jump forward 50-plus games and when the situation has multiple faces and not a ton of situations from which to choose: is it worth the squeeze? The White Sox closer situation has gone from one, to a few, and back again multiple times this year, and now it has swung back to Joakim Soria after garnering the last two saves. The conundrum here is that Nate Jones had gotten the previous three save chances. Than if you scroll the calendar even farther, Jace Fry got a save and retread Bruce Rondon also factored in on one occasion in mid-May. So with a team that only has 13 saves all year, better than only one other team, the Marlins (who are a complete and utter disaster for saves). So when chasing saves, and we all do it, even you, the guy who can’t make eye contact way in the back… It is part of the FAAB chase and the most alluring I might add and frequent drain of funds. So with a team that has flip-flopped three times in 50 games, with 13 saves and on pace for a MLB bottom-three in save chances, is it worth the headache of this guy or that guy? I wanna root for the Mexecutioner, and some guy named Nate, but they are basically like part-time lovers, and I would rather stream the spot with great counting stats that matter. Soria’s K/9 is in the mid-10’s which is admirable, but on a game-to-game basis, the save chase comes down to volume, not the here and now. Yes, Soria should be owned, and yes Jones should be owned. But I am just bringing this up for your sake of saves hope. If you can pair either one of them at the right time, obviously when they are on a hot streak of two saves in 10 days, do so and upgrade your save booty. Advice over, bits of tid to follow. Cheers!
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Nick Vincent
Earlier in the preseason, I delved into the holds tiers for fantasy bullpens. It exists right here in the Fantasy Relief Pitchers for Holds. That was more a broad brushstroke of fantasy bullpen goodness that goes on here at Razznation. Now that we are thumbs deep in draft season and the players being more prominent in roles are starting to show their purpose we can get a better grip on who to won and who to covet for the ugly step sister of saves the hold stat. In more cases than not, following a “drafting for holds model” holds true, but holds are such a fluid stat… more fluid than the closer role. So drafting the elite guy every year looks like a great idea, but name the guy who lead the league in holds multiple years in a row or, hell, twice in their career? It’s a short list, whose names are not that awesome or even around anymore. So for drafting for holds, whether it be in a straight holds league or a saves+holds league having the edge up on bullpenery is key. The strategies for each of those leagues is basically the same as the elite holds category earners and they should be drafted after the last “donkeycorn” closer to come off the board. If you draft an elite closer, always cuff your closer with the top holds candidate on that team. Next, do what I just said twice and grab your second closer’s backup/holds guy. That will give you two closers, their back-ups for the “just in case” moments and holds. Then your last pick for your bullpen will be an independent guy that has a K/9 rate over 9. That is my finite strategy for drafting holds in any league. It gives you five guys that you can bank on every day in a “set it and forget it” type situation. Don’t fall in love with your options, as like I said, bullpen fluidness is blah and you can find a hot hand on an off day. So now that strategy is out of the way, let’s look at the more finite tiers of holds!
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Drafting For Holds In 2018: Relief Pitchers Tiered
February 13, 2018 | 2018 Fantasy Baseball Draft, Middle Relievers | 52 Commentsby: Smokey
The most important thing in fantasy baseball relief-dom in terms of holds is consistency. Without consistency of opportunities, of placement in the bullpen, and a team’s consistent success in utilizing their bullpen to your fantasy advantage… you get left out out in the cold when it comes down to accumulating a stout holds based relief pitching corps. Until there is a shift in the utilization of bullpens for the benefit of fantasy, more so, the leagues that use the hold stat. I will admit that I am more of an eye test person than a numbers guy. Numbers scare me. They prove too many things that don’t factor in the human error factor and the good ole eye test. So against my better mental state, I used numbers from the past five years to show that the bullpens are being used more frequently. Not just by some teams, but by all teams. I know, duh. This is something that we all eyed to be happening than Smokey goes in the opposite direction like a dyslexic salmon and gets some data to prove the incline of a stat that he holds so near and dear to his fantasy bear heart. Well sit back, relax, it’s going to be a fun ride on the holds bus this week as we do some research and than put the top-50 relief pitchers into hold tiers. Enjoy!
The 2018 Razzball Commenter Leagues are now open! Free to join with prizes! All the exclamation points!
Please, blog, may I have some more? Bullpen Report: This is the End
September 29, 2017 | Closers, Middle Relievers, SAGNOF | 14 Commentsby: Smokey
Much like the famous Doors song that shares it’s name, bullpens are drawing near. (Minus the Oedipus complex that the song explores.) I mean, it may… but that is gross and I don’t wanna associate my bullpen goodies to that. Moving on, shall we? This year has been the SAGNOF-fest that we always come to expect. Closers up, closers down. Trades and attrition. It happens every single year and it is the reason why the waiver wire is what it is: So we can get the new third closer for the Twins. The chase for saves never ends, well, I mean it ends for season-long leagues, but for dynasty and keeper leagues, the times never change. Saves are a category. A deeply hated and often cursed at category that will always be debated about. Whether or not to invest earlier picks then normal to get a stud, or just fill in with hope-so’s and also rans. There unfortunately is no right or wrong answer because both strategies work as long as you are a waiver goblin. So with the final post of the year, much like the other years that I have done this, we look to next year… This year’s counting stats and information don’t matter, we want to know what lies on the horizon. So let’s find out!
Please, blog, may I have some more?I have said it here previously that grabbing relievers from a hot team or a team on a winning streak is usually a fantastic strategy from a holds perspective. I really have said it multiple times, so my memory is better than your’s. The Indians are in unprecedented territory as the team is in the midst of a win streak for the ages. It seems like two Hatteberg’s and maybe half a David Justice ago that we remember the A’s had a win streak of twenty. But now the Indians are on their own 20-plus win streak. Winning is a team effort, but Holds are what we care about in the Bullpen report. The Indians Bullpen over the course of their win streak is just over a buck fitty, and that’s not what matters for this post. The accumulation of goodies is what makes them all shiny. The group of Bryan Shaw, Nick Goody, Tyler Olson and Joe Smith have totaled 20 holds over their last 20 games. That total is just crazy, because since the all star break (which was 40 plus games ago) the have more holds than six teams do in total since said All Star break. So investing in Cleveland for bullpen stuff is where it’s at currently. Chase the win streak to aide in your pursuit of a Holds championship. Let’s see what else is going down in the world of holds and bullpens…
Please, blog, may I have some more? Bullpen Report: Reliever Roulette
September 1, 2017 | Closers, Middle Relievers | 4 Commentsby: Smokey
It is that time of the year my good fellows, that allegiances and brand loyalty are thrown out the window. As stalwarts start to grow warts, and the season long compilers gather some moss. Allegiances and growing to fond of your roster for Holds is what sets apart first place and the rest of the standings. Who you roster on your team is your own business, but I am here to learn you something as the season long leaderboard for holds is kinda stale. The overall season leader, Taylor Rogers, has 2 in the past two weeks. It doesn’t get any prettier as you go down the top 5 either. Nick Vincent has 1, Jacob Barnes has 1, Jose Ramirez has 2, and Pedro Baez has 2. Not completely awe-inspiring returns for the top of the top for holds. On the contrary, the leaders in the past 14 days: Kyle Barraclough, David Hernandez, and Tommy Hunter all have 5. Far more significant returns for a reliever, and it brings me to my key point… Grab a hold and ditch, period. The names that are garnering late game situations is growing rapidly and will increase even more once rosters expand. This is the “what have you done for me lately” approach to hold accumulation down the stretch. Yes, the guys you roster may be great at K/9 and BB/9 and have stellar WHIP totals etc, but when chasing the one key cog stat for set-up men, that being the hold, no allegiances should remain.
Please, blog, may I have some more?This is the best time of the year, next to when Shark Week is on TV. All the movement in real baseball sends a ripple throughout the fantasy universe and in most position player cases, the player is owned to the moon or already a contributor. Not so much in the realm of baseball’s forgotten warriors: the setup men. As teams scramble for bullpen help, it creates an everlasting (not really forever) waterfall effect that resonates to the new and old team. Take for example the Yankees/White Sox trade it has created job questions for five separate relievers: Betances, Robertson, Kahnle, Clippard and Swarzak. Now with all the hype surrounding trade rumors, it is best to identify the team who gets the bullpen help first, than the trading team second. Because the trading team usually is where the goodies are at. Anthony Swarzak looks to be the biggest beneficiary in the setup options, and yes, Clippard will be closing, but Swarzak will be there when Clippard gets dealt again whether it’s before or after the non-waiver trade deadline. So to summarize here, be speculative but not crazy. Pay attention to the reliever deals in place and realize that some pitchers get moved down a few pegs, but on the reflexive, some move up. Have at some juicy reliever tidbits, Cheers!.
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If you look around Petco and see Padres fans on the edge of their seats, they’re A) Probably the visiting team’s fans. B) If they are Padres fans, they’re on the edge of their seats because they don’t want to wrinkle the back of their Izod shirt. C) There’s no C. They’re not anticipating Trevor Cahill, because they think Trevor Cahill is the ex-Navy guy who works in their office who they need to fire but are worried he’s going to beat the crap out of them. When they hear Trevor Cahill is a Padres pitcher, their response is, “Ah, Padres, I miss Tony Gwynn.” So, who is Trevor Cahill? He ain’t Luis Severino, I’ll tell you that. I don’t see the upside of Pineda, Paxton, McCullers, Urias or any other sexy AF young starter. As commenter, Bigly Leagues pointed out, Trevor Cahill is:
7th in FIP (2.64)
6th in xFIP (2.83)
8th in K/9 (11.1)
18th in WAR (0.8)
What he didn’t point out is how Cahill is doing it. That’s no critique of BL, it’s not his job to point it out, though I guess he could’ve and saved me the work. C’mon, BL! Cahill’s doing it with the league’s 2nd best curveball. He’s not doing it with his 90 MPH fastball, that’s for sure. He doesn’t even have the world’s best control (3.3 BB/9). The rest of his pitches are mostly basic, which brings me to my problem. If he doesn’t get the curve over, or it’s just not working for some reason, the house of cards is going to fall and Kevin Spacey is going to be talking into the camera about how terrible Cahill looks. I’d own Cahill everywhere to see if he can continue, but I have less confidence in him in away games. That giant safety net in Petco makes everyone a slightly better trapeze walker. Anyway, here’s some more players to Buy or Sell this week in fantasy baseball:
Please, blog, may I have some more? Bullpen Report: A Thornburg in Sawx Side
March 31, 2017 | Closers, Middle Relievers | 84 Commentsby: Smokey
The last week of the spring always breeds injuries, demotions, and the occasional leap frogging. Or in some cases, Dusty is going to be simply be Dusty. But I will get to that little blurb in a few. So with the injury news to T.T., the Red Sox order is now Joe Kelly, Matt Barnes, and then maybe Bob Stanley. Joe Kelly is the interesting name here because I always thought he was at least in the conversation for the secondary chair behind Tyler. This is interesting because if, and only if, Kimbrel goes down, the man on the spot may very well be Joe freaking Kelly. The same guy that said that he could win a Cy Young last year. Adjusting to a newer role is always a tough spot, even though he appeared in 14 games as a RP last year. His K-rate spiked, his walk rate halved, and his ability to be touched for hits disappeared. Not unusual for former starting pitchers, but this was kind of a drastic change from what we saw as a starter. He is not the second coming of Luke Gregerson circa 2012, but is a fine enough arm with enough quality in it to garner the counting stats needed in Thorny’s stead. Let’s see what else is happening in the set-up facet of the game and update the final preseason Holds chart before the games actually mean something…
Please, blog, may I have some more? Bullpen Report: 2017 Holds Rankings
March 3, 2017 | Closers, Middle Relievers | 58 Commentsby: Smokey
A funny thing happened on my way to work today, I sat there in my favorite sitting place and did some research. I looked at the availability of information provided by the other experts in the world of fantasy baseball, and then correlated that to what I do best. That, my friends, is bullpens. We as a collective fantasy universe play in leagues with the illusive yet sultry stat category known as the Hold. In fact, in some further research that I have done, an estimated 30% of all fantasy players play in a league with some sort of Hold associated with the final outcome in the standings. I mean, 30% is basically like winning the popular vote. [Jay’s Note: I love you Smokey.] But I am standing here aghast at the amount of research poured into this fantasy industry by experts all around the world, yet here I sit. Giving you the most diverse, in-depth, informative (yet funny), and groundbreaking stat analysis that not even world-wide leaders give… for free might I add. I love me some bullpens, and if you don’t play in a league that adds diversity to the game to include them, then maybe you should down shift a bit and give it some thought and do a league that includes it. Don’t do it for me, do it for yourself. Because this way I gain, at least one reader from each person that does it. Go search the inter-webs for holds type information, you get a column sorted catastrophe written by some intern who doesn’t know the difference between good and well. So stay here my friends, I am the goods through and through. I dropped the Holds chart weeks ago and now you get just straight cheddar and some rankings.
Please, blog, may I have some more? Preseason Bullpen Report: Middle Relief Goodies
February 19, 2015 | Middle Relievers | 52 Commentsby: Smokey
I wish filling out your fantasy roster with middle relievers was as easy as plop-plop, fizz-fizz. But I’m sure it isn’t, because not everyone is using the same model of success. I can dig that, I mean, I come from a long line of Smokeys that like the art of shoveling. Listen, I get it if you don’t wanna help your team-rates and ratios by adding guys that are stout in production for basically free at the end of your draft. Streaming relievers is a real thing, I didn’t make it up. It does exist, and it lives in the house between Nessy and Sasquatch. It’s not for the faint of heart and is probably not for everyone. It is about optimizing your free innings (very useful in RCL leagues that have games started limits, which everyone wants to win). It’s a basic theory and the patent is pending, so stick around as I get into the art of streaming relievers. And as an added bonus, I have broken down the MR corps into four separate groups. These groups are broken down by usefulness. We have one for straight cuffs, one for rates and holds, a straight holds, and then some stone cold sleepers for you deep-leaguers.
Please, blog, may I have some more?The problem you’re having with your innings limit is everyone’s problem with just five weeks to go. The combative strategy against this is to use a familiar SP option for streaming, but this time, use it for RP. The concept is sound, and is an effective method for leagues without limits, kinda like doctors without borders, but with mitts and jerseys. So here’s how it goes: find the guys you’re streaming on your roster for SP, but instead, find an effective middle reliever or two or three. Get greedy, as they help in groups, kinda like the non-anime version of Voltron. These RP stream guys don’t have to be elite names, as most of them are going to be owned already, but if they aren’t, lets start there. You wanna focus on guys that have a K-rate above 10, which cuts the available guys you want in half. Next, pay attention to their opponent and their teams record… both important. Guys on contenders get used more frequently in better situations. Lastly, and this is important, as soon as they pitch, dump them and pick up a guy who hasn’t pitched that day or the day before to maximize your usable stats. I don’t care how well they did in the game you streamed them in. He pitched? Now he’s is gone. Forget about em. Pretty simple. No? I’ll draw it in crayon, but put on this helmet so we don’t have any liability issues. (If you pick the right guys that is.) Stick around for some pretty charts and tidbits of fantasy goodness…
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