Razzball’s 2014 KFFL Fantasy Baseball Analysis Draft

I was fortunate enough to be invited to this year in KFFL’s Fantasy Baseball Analysis Draft (which leads to a BAD acronym). It has historically been a 12-team mixed snake draft league but has now been expanded to 15 teams.

Some drafts require a lot of prep time – this one had the prep time of a TV dinner. It came right on the heels of LABR which follows the same format. Then my pals at KFFL (Nick Minnix and Tim Heaney) were nice enough to ‘randomly’ assign me the same pick (#8) I had in LABR. Sweet.

My strategy going into the draft was similar to LABR – draft 9+ SPs, be AVG-conscious, get two top 15 closers, try to nab one of the speedy/solid AVG MIs, and anticipate and/or dodge position runs. There were a couple of post-LABR draft learnings I incorporated:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Fantasy Baseball Strategy – Impact of Maximizing Team IP

by: Rudy Gamble

This post is a sequel to this post on maximizing ABs.

In recent posts, I used the results of our 2013 Razzball Commenter Leagues (based on 64 12-team mixed leagues with daily roster changes and unlimited pickups) to show:

The end of season value of a team’s pitchers explains about 59% of a team’s final season Pitching Standings Points
The PROJECTED value of a team’s pitchers before the draft explains on average only 3% of a team’s final season Pitching Standings Points (with a range in 2013 from -6% to 15%)
Thus, even with the best performing rankings, 44% of a team’s pitching success is driven by deviations from what was projected and what actually happened (drafter prescience may be part of this but it is likely driven by good/bad luck in pitcher performance and health)

So this leaves 41% of Pitching Standings Points that could be attributed to a manager’s in-season moves.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Fantasy Baseball Strategy – Impact of Maximizing Team ABs

February 25, 2014 | fantasy baseball strategy | 129 Comments

by: Rudy Gamble

In recent posts, I used the results of our 2013 Razzball Commenter Leagues (based on 64 12-team mixed leagues with daily roster changes and unlimited pickups) to show:

The end of season value of a team’s hitters explains about 70% of a team’s final season Hitting Standings Points
The PROJECTED value of a team’s hitters before the draft explains on average only 15% of a team’s final season Hitting Standings Points (with a range in 2013 from 2% to 37%)
Thus, about 55% of a team’s hitting success is driven by deviations from what was projected and what actually happened (drafter prescience may be part of this but it is likely driven by good/bad luck in hitter performance and health)

So this leaves 30% of Hitting Standings Points that could be attributed to a manager’s in-season moves.

Inspired by one of our commenters (initials SF), I thought of a way to reduce the size of that 30% black box. While estimating the quality of a manager’s in-season moves is very complicated, estimate the quantity of a manager’s moves is EZPZ. That would be interesting…..but what kind of guidance would that provide? Making roster moves just for the sake of it is a waste of time and if you, our loyal readers, are going to waste your time, we prefer you do it on our site vs. your league site.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Razzball’s 2014 LABR Draft

February 24, 2014 | Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy, Our Leagues | 89 Comments

by: Rudy Gamble

One of the many perks of being a fantasy baseball blog with a modicum of popularity is the chance to play in expert leagues. For the 4th straight year, Razzball’s gunning for a LABR crown (3rd straight in the 15-team mixed league snake format) to put atop my afro’d head (Grey’s moustache is all the regality his noggin needs).

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Fantasy Baseball Snake Draft Strategy – Impact of Draft Order

February 20, 2014 | Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy | 92 Comments

by: Rudy Gamble

The first piece of good or bad news for a fantasy baseball owner (at least in non-keeper, snake draft leagues) is their draft order spot. Everyone has draft order preferences and they often vary by the year. In some years where there was no overwhelming #1 pick, I preferred a middle pick so I did not have to wait a gazillion picks between turns. I recall some drafts where I really liked the depth through pick 16 or so and wanted a late first round pick to grab two. Last year, I wanted a top 2 pick because I felt Trout and Cabrera were clear #1/#2 and I did not want the agita of drafting Braunogenesis (of course I picked #3 and got Braun).

Anyway, I thought it might be an interesting exercise to estimate the value of draft order even though I understand this is typically randomized so this is less ‘strategy’ and more about ‘fate’. This analysis is based on 12-team mixed leagues but I assume the same principles are in play for deeper league formats.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Fantasy Baseball Snake Draft Strategy – The Cumulative Round-by-Round Impact On Team Success

February 11, 2014 | Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy | 83 Comments

by: Rudy Gamble

In my 2013 review of Fantasy Baseball Rankings, I noted how the majority of a team’s success (in 12-team mixed roto leagues) can be tied to the end-of-season value of their team. Those stats are:

Drafted Hitter+Pitcher End of Season Value – 66.9% correlation with Team Total Standings Points (2013)
Drafted Hitter End of Season Value = 70.5% correlation with Team Hitter Standings Points (2013)
Drafted Pitcher End of Season Value = 60.0% correlation with Team Pitcher Standings Points (2013)

The below graph shows the cumulative round-by-round impact of how a team’s draft drives a fantasy team’s success (or lack thereof) in the 2013 Razzball Commenter Leagues (so the end of season value of a team’s 1st-4th round hitters explains about 53% of a team’s hitting standing points (red line), 1st-4th round pitchers explains about 9% of a team’s pitching standing points, and the sum of the two explain 40% of a team’s total standings points)

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Fantasy Baseball Snake Draft Strategy – Hit/Pitch Splits

February 4, 2014 | fantasy baseball strategy | 65 Comments

by: Rudy Gamble

Hit/pitch splits are commonly associated with fantasy baseball auction drafts auction drafts – e.g., spending $180 on hitting, $80 on pitching or 70/30 hit/pitch split. The discussions around hitting vs. pitching in snake drafts tend to be less mathematical in nature – often limited to debates on which round to draft one’s first starting pitcher and relief pitcher.

This post will demonstrate how to calculate hit/pitch splits for snake drafts as well as analyze 2013 Razzball Commenter League data to see what the most optimal hit/pitch splits are.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Fantasy Baseball Rankings Review – 2013

January 20, 2014 | Testing Projections + Player Raters | 37 Comments

by: Rudy Gamble

This is part of an annual multi-part series designed to help Fantasy Baseball fans determine on what fantasy rankings and projections to rely. The first part will cover Rankings. The next parts will cover Projections.

Below are the ranking sources that are part of the test. I have hyperlinked to the actual rankings wherever possible. Some of these links, including ours, will override once 2014 rankings are published.

Please, blog, may I have some more?