Up front, out of the way, Prospect Itch’s thoughts, “Spencer Torkelson is unique as a first overall pick in that it’s really just the bat Detroit drafted. They announced him as a third baseman on draft night, and Torkelson might be a good enough athlete to make that work, but it doesn’t matter all that much to his prospect stock if he has to slide back over to first base. The carrying tools are hit and power, and both could be plus-plus depending how he reacts to premium spin. The clear #1 pick in dynasty First-Year-Player Drafts and an easy top five prospect for fantasy. As good as he is, Grey is that bad.” Not cool, gonna move on! Spencer Torkelson is the meow’s cat; his stats tell me so: 30 HRs combined across three levels, ending in Triple-A, in his first competitive minor league season. His numbers strictly at Triple-A were: 11/1/.238 but with a .233 BABIP and a 20.3% strikeout rate. He was robbed, a lot it seems, i.e., that’s unlucky. Also, his walk rate was 13% — slashed .350/.531. These aren’t ordinary numbers from a kid who is just tasting Triple-A for the first time. What’s pretty cool, and I mean this in the most sincere, non-cynical way, there’s a ton of under-25-year-old guys coming up and you can already see future first and second rounders for fantasy all over the place. Is Spencer Torkelson? Meh, maybe in the right lineup, but he’s more Jose Abreu-lite than Au Shizz in his prime. Each time the league loses a guy, it gets replenished with a better guy. Going bye-bye from the 1st few rounds is Nolan Arenado. No fear, Mr. Belvedere sat on his nuts and missed a week of work, also Tork’s got you, man! It does make things fun. So, what can we expect from Spencer Torkelson for 2022 fantasy baseball?
Spencer Torkelson is a 32/.280/4 corner man. That’s old school, you old fools. Torkelson is Classic Coke. I might start calling him Classic Tork. What’s the difference between Classic Tork and Sexy Dr. Pepper? Calories, sugar, caffeine, tastes sweeter, and which one am I talking about? I guess Sexy Dr. Pepper, but Classic Tork is there — just without the speed, wrong side of the plate, outfield vs. corner man, less OBP–okay, ya know what, before Classic Tork debuts, I won’t start comparing him to Juan Soto. Those britches are big and sexy, but Classic Tork’s not about to fizzle out. Okay, let’s see what Pepsi can’t provide:
Spencer Torkelson x2 ? pic.twitter.com/3Cdy8Mxf5V
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) May 30, 2021
That’s what you call effortless. Bizarre to say this before a guy debuts, but he seems destined for the Hall of Very Good. That’s 10-12 years of 27-32/.270. I don’t say that casually or about lots of guys. He could win an MVP, and get drafted in the 1st round of fantasy at some point. Could it be after one full year? Unlikely. He doesn’t have any real speed, and the low BABIP at Triple-A that produced .238 is a little worrisome. If he’s prone to a shift, it could be exploited in the majors. Either way, he’ll need to be in the lineup on Day 1 and hit .290 with 40 bombs to be a 1st rounder in fantasy. That sounds like a two or three years down the line proposition.
For 2022? He can absolutely put up 25+ homers and a .255 average like some of the cheaper, older cornermen vets. Think C.J. Cron, Jesus Aguilar, Jonathan Schoop, those types. Speaking of Schoop, I’m about to Schoop-out everyday at-bats for Classic Tork, wanna join me? You have no choice. Schoop moves back to 2nd base, and, Frank Voila!, we have room for Classic Tork at 1st base. That nudges Harold Castro out of the 2nd base job. Sorry, Harold, maybe you and Willi can get an only-for-Castro’s discount trip to Cuba to sightsee and become eventual co-dictators. The only question mark is when do we see Classic Tork. My guess is the Tigers say everything right about starting camp with him, but he would need to hit 10 homers and .400 in the spring for that to have any real legs. He will be up soon though, potentially mid-to-late April. In general, I will say this about my rookie projections — projections are 100% accurate, except the ABs, which are like, at best, 50% accurate. For 2022, I’ll give Spencer Torkelson projections of 64/27/72/.253/2 in 443 ABs with a chance for more if he breaks camp with the Tigers. For those doing math at home, I’m docking him roughly three weeks.
