…Ch-Ch-Changes! There’s been a lot of buzz about the MLB rule changes over the last few weeks and, lucky for you, Razzball’s friendly neighborhood MarmosDad is here to sort through it all (or at least the ones that will affect our SAGNOF targets/steals in general). There are a bunch of new changes that could (and probably should) affect our draft strategies. So in the words of the legendary Thin White Duke, let’s ‘turn and face the strange’…and have a peek at some of those new rules that should impact steals this season.
Speaking of our old pal, Ziggy Stardust…
(Robbie Ray prepping for the Mariners’ 80’s theme night, or the student who sat in front of you in your 1991 Math class? You decide.)
But before we get to the goods, (probably not the best thing to write following that picture), don’t forget to look over Razzball’s official 2023 Fantasy Baseball Rankings here, so you can check out the names that I’ll be writing up in the next few weeks. Also, as I said last week, Rudy’s 2023 Premium Fantasy Baseball Subscriptions are well worth a check-in, too. That’s where you’ll get access to the draft guide, Streamonator, Hittertron, and the DFSBot to give you the edge in your DFS plays all season long.
Now let’s get to those rule changes! I’ll give a brief run down, (pun relatively unintended), of each rule change and whether or not it should affect the steals game.
- Pitch clock – 0:30 between batters, 0:15 between pitches with bases empty, 0:20 with runners on. I suppose this will at the very least force pitchers to focus on getting the ball to the plate, (yep, insert Captain Obvious gif here), and by default spend less time focusing on the runners on base. Pitcher violation = automatic ball. Hitters not in the box within the allotted time = automatic strike. VERDICT: I assume this will affect the baserunning game the most, especially for one group of players.
- Pickoff limits – Pitchers are allowed two ‘disengagements’ per batter. That means, at the most, two pickoff attempts or stepping off the rubber twice. A third ‘disengagement’ will be deemed a balk unless an out is recorded (eg. successful pickoff attempt). Assuming that the majority of pickoff moves go to the runner at first, this should give guys the opportunity to increase that lead-off to nab second base a lot more often than it did in the past. If runners advance during the plate appearance, the limit is reset. VERDICT: There is a certain group that this should benefit the most, but, again, we’ll get into that later.
(Special thanks to Jose Altuve for lending us his clubhouse mattress…the one on the right…come on people, I’m not a monster)
- Bigger bases – As I’m sure you’ve heard, MLB is instituting new bags for the 2023 season. Increasing by 3 inches, (apologies if this reads like junk mail spam), our old 15X15 bases are ‘puffing up’ to 18X18. I assume the biggest benefits will be around safety (more surface area = less room for a middle infielder to stomp on someone’s sliding pad or jam their spikes into some digits), and around giving guys a larger surface area to avoid a tag if they slide farther to one side or past said target.
This quote comes straight from the MLB.com article announcing the changes – “This allows players more room to operate around the bases to reduce the risk of injury (there was a 13 percent decline in injuries near the bases in the Minor Leagues last year) and could also encourage runners to be more aggressive on stolen-base attempts (the success rate on steal attempts in the Minors with the bigger bases increased between 1 and 2 percent).” I think this gives the experienced base stealers a lot more leeway as far as slide types are concerned. Headfirst sliders don’t have to worry as much about injury, and guys looking to hook slide have more space to do so. VERDICT: This should help those top speed threats and established base stealers.
- Defensive shift restrictions – Defensive teams must now have two infielders positioned on either side of 2nd base before each pitch. Infielders also must have both feet in the outer edge of the infield boundary (dirt). As a side note here, the shifts do not apply to outfielders. Infielders may not switch sides unless there is a player substitution. This should guard against teams moving the stronger defender to a batter’s pull side. VERDICT: This shouldn’t necessarily increase SB success rates at all. If anything it ensures that the MIs are closer to the bag (to make a tag) throughout each at-bat.
The easiest way to tie this all together is to focus on which kinds of players will benefit the most from the new rules. In a vacuum, runners gonna run…and sloths gonna sloth.
Our rabbits, (super high-speed guys), shouldn’t see much of a change in output. As I said last week, Trea Turner and Ronald Acuna are supposed to steal a bunch of bases each year. These guys don’t have much room for growth, and their uptick will probably be minimal compared to their expected totals.
The ‘acceleration challenged’ players (sorry Miguel Cabrera, Rowdy Tellez, Nelson Cruz) might get a better jump once or twice this season, but we shouldn’t expect them to magically boost their SB totals.
That leaves those middle-of-the-pack guys to fill in our Goldilocks position for steals increases. Overall, the new changes should affect those players that have already shown mid-level speed. The average to above average guys. It’s those players in the 7-15 SB zone already, but without eye-popping numbers. Those are the ones that I would be willing to consider going an extra dollar or two for in an auction draft, or jumping ADP if the need for speed arises. I’m gambling that the rule changes affect this group the most this summer.
Let’s have a quick look at three players that fit the bill in or around those benchmarks…
Brandon Marsh : ADP 286.87 – 2022 SB Total : 10 ; 2023 Steamer projection : 13
Marsh holds a special place in my heart. He was the lede in my first DFS article last year and I was certain that either he or Jo Adell was breaking out in a big way. Well, I think we all know how that one turned out. Marsh checks a few of the boxes for what I look for in a potential steals target (more on that next week), and sits snugly in that 7-15 range of SB that I mentioned earlier. Marsh is only 25 years old. If he can boost his contact and raise that OBP at the very least above the .300 mark (he was at .295 last year), he could double last year’s output in thefts. He should have full time playing time as the starting CF in Philly, but he’ll need to work on that 71% SB% from last year in spring, too.
Gavin Lux : ADP 228.67 – 2022 SB Total : 7 ; 2023 Steamer projection : 7
This is another guy that has the SPD score (155 last year), the youth (25 years old), and the increase in playing time. He had a much healthier OBP last season than Marsh did (.346) and if he can finally tap into that top prospect potential that we’ve been waiting on for so many years, he could at the very least double that SB output from last year. Remember that Lux was ‘the guy’ that teams kept asking for in trade talks over the last 5 years. It’ll be tough to break into a top four position in that batting lineup but even if he bats ninth, he should get the green light more often than not. He’s listed at a 55 grade speed score on FanGraphs (above average).
Then there was this little gem from Jeff Zimmerman on Sunday’s Twitter feed, too. No need to worry about his offseason training, either. (BSOHL alert!?)
Tommy Edman : ADP 73 – 2022 SB Total : 32 ; 2023 Steamer projection : 33
“Wait one minute!!! You said you were only looking at 7-15 steals guys, not someone that has stolen 30+ bases over the last two years!”
Well, guys and 5 girl readers, as David Bowie would (probably) say, “Don’t get your tight-fitting grey knickers in a knot.”
When The Lineup Builder wrote up his Analytics Anonymous article on SBO, he mentioned Tommy Edman and his potential increase in SBO. That stolen base opportunity should be very high again, especially if Edman can keep his spot atop a potent St. Louis lineup. His 91% SB% last year was higher than his 3-year average. If he stays in the leadoff spot and can show that his last two seasons of SB% are legitimate, (86% in 2021), I wouldn’t be surprised to see him come close enough to sniff 40 SB this year. The biggest IF is if he can stay in the leadoff spot. His defense is strong enough that he should at least be able to hold off competition for that starting gig no matter what. Not bad numbers from a 2B/SS eligible player going off the board in round 6 of a 12 team draft.
Next week, I’ll go through a few general points and stats that I look for when trying to sort potential SB sources. If you have any questions, comments, or anyone you want me to dig a bit deeper into, leave a note here or catch me on Twitter @MarmosDad.
