SAGNOF: Life In The Fast Lane

Happy Mid-week, Razzball rapscallions! I trust that you all enjoyed a festive July 4th and are ready to cruise into the All Star break with a backyard full of empty beer cans and a belly full of hot dogs.

Now is the time to sit back and reflect on what’s gone right…or wrong…since the beginning of the season. Take a minute to revel in the glory of drafting Ronald Acuna first overall! Or, take a moment to dry your eyes after watching your top OF, Mike Trout, break his hamate bone and return to what has become, most unfortunately, his second home (the IL).

After the brief reflection, it’s probably a good idea to give your league standings a good once over too. Are there categories that you can move up in? Are your ratio categories too far gone to throw in a tweak or two and make up some ground? Are you absolutely dominating one category and can deal from a strength to reinforce a weakness? Can you trade players to an out-of-the-running opponent to help them take standings points away from your league-leading competition?

These are all questions that I like to ask myself at this time of year. Fantasy baseball is what fuels us all, but to assume that it’s anything but a very long grind would be a mistake. Taking stock of what you have and what you need for the second half is something that everyone should be doing at the All Star break.

Can you pinpoint a few players that could help? Maybe there are a couple of relievers that could pull down your pitching ratios? Is there an OF or two that are good under-the-radar players to target in trade?

Those in redraft leagues should be doing whatever they can to move up in the standings. Keeper or dynasty leagues? That’s a bit trickier, but if you can push your squad into contention, it’s time to assess and make moves. That super affordable keeper that you have? Maybe it’s time to package him to a bottom feeder rebuilder to make that charge for the title.

But let’s not lose focus of the SAGNOF here. We live our life here in the fast lane for a reason.

Speaking of Lanes…(segue-way complete)…Lane Thomas might be one of those OF that could be had for a relatively affordable price. 

Way back in December 2021, a bespectacled bro of prognostication, (with a stunning soup strainer to boot), wrote up the Washington Nationals outfielder in a fantasy outlook here. Coming off of a 7 HR, 4 SB, (2 CS), .270 in 45 games, Thomas held his own in a decent sample size. Not to rehash everything from Grey’s piece, (it’s all outlined right there, just click it), but to say that Lane Thomas made good on Grey’s prediction ahead of the 2022 season would probably be an understatement.

2022 final numbers? In 498 AB, he went 62/17/52/8/.241.

Not bad. Certainly not as hefty as Grey’s prediction of 84/18/61/.256/21, but what if I told you that Grey hopped into the Razzball DeLorean and dialed it back only a year too soon?

This season, including yesterday’s game, Thomas is cruising along with a 57/14/45/7/.301 line. I know school is out for everyone now, but it doesn’t take a Math Magician to double that and flash it in front of Mr. Prorater like you just managed to secure the last double-cone from the ice cream truck. 

Lane Thomas has 55-grade speed, a respectable 50-grade hit tool, and 50-grade raw power. The defensive tools are even higher rated. This looks like a perfect storm of a strong defensive outfielder in his prime years (27), who escaped a logjam in St. Louis to become an everyday leadoff hitter for a weak Nationals team. 

Excellent. So why isn’t this guy on my waiver wire? Ya, that’s the thing. I’m not expecting Thomas to be an easy add. But, if you have a manager in your league that is out of the running or maybe doesn’t believe in the breakout? Maybe he’s worth trying to pry loose from said owner to try to beef up your counting stats. The speed is there, and as long as he continues to hit, I think there are worse outfielders to target in our mid-season team assessments.

Speaking of guys with steals potential, how about those league leaders?

• A lot of business as usual here at the top of our list. It’s getting to be a real dog fight at the top. Acuna could pass Ruiz by next week.
• Another Bae update – nothing but a blip in OBP to report for the numbers, but a pretty disappointing IL stint is the other addition. 10 days for Ji-Hwan and his rolled ankle. Another injury timed just right for the All Star break.
• Julio Rodriguez bumps out a couple of guys ahead of him from last week to slide into the 8th spot.
• Not only is Christian Yelich absolutely not washed up, but he slots in as the second highest OBP (.380) on our leaderboard behind Acuna’s .415.

I decided to change things up a bit here this week. I’ve been looking at Rudy’s Stolen Base Success Rates Against Starting Pitchers (say that one 10X fast) and figured this would be a nice addition to the weekly report here. And, an even better piece of news, it’s one of our FREE tools!

I’ll rotate the individual leaders with the SP to run on one week, then the team totals and catchers to run on the next. Hopefully, it’s more helpful for you!

Honestly, I probably could have written a whole page on this here, but I’ll cut to the chase. Please bear with my very active and firing ADHD here.

Rudy’s got data on all pitchers from 2019 to today (updated in real-time) that lists innings pitched, stolen bases allowed, caught stealing, and even IP by SB.

After a bit of perusal, I have a few names and numbers for you to peep in a handy dandy chart. 

There are a few things that stood out. 

• I went with the bigger sample sizes. Think SB attempts > 20 for most. Kyle Bradish, for example, is not here because he’s only allowed 2 SB in 2 attempts (in 170+ innings!)
• Mike Clevinger is our biggest loser here, (that in itself should not be surprising). Outside of a handful of 1.000 small sample sizes, the Clev-Dog has allowed 26 SB in 27 attempts (172.1 IP).
• Noah Syndergaard is one of the worst in this list with 50 SB and just 4 CS (92.6%). He’s in bad shape, though,  (blister, mechanics, etc.), so I left him out.
• Not to knock him when he’s already down, but Sandy Alcantara makes this short list too with a 48/9 in SB/CS (84.2%).
• Maybe it’s just a coincidence but if you’ve read this space the last few weeks, the running joke is that the same catchers are having a heck of a time catching base stealers. Some of those same teams show up here too – San Diego, New York Mets, San Francisco.

We’ll finish with the profile of the week. In these, I’ll usually reference the Hittertron SB$ value here just so you can see what kind of roto-dollars the guy is projected to earn over the next 7 days.  This week is a bit different.

Just a reminder that you can have full access to all of this, along with Streamonator and Relievonator (and more) with our 2023 Razzball Fantasy Baseball Subscriptions.

Forrest Wall – 2B/OF – Atlanta – (at AAA Gwinnett)

No Hittertron numbers to peek at here, folks. I’ll give you some method to my madness, though.

I wanted to look through the MiLB SB numbers just to see if we’ve missed anyone that should be on our SAGNOF radar. The good news? I don’t think we’ve missed much.

This one, admittedly, is more for those dynasty players or for those looking to gaze into the crystal ball that is the trade deadline (August 1st for anyone that missed The Lineup Builder’s article a couple of weeks ago).

Forrest Wall is a former top prospect from the Colorado Rockies organization. The 35th overall pick (2014) spent four seasons in the Rockies system before heading to the Blue Jays from 2018 through 2021. 2022? Seattle. 2023? Atlanta signed him to a minor league deal.

Well, it doesn’t take an expert in rocket appliances to know that a 27 year old former top prospect that has spent nearly 10 years in the minors with multiple teams might have a few developmental bruises. The strikeout rate (to cherrypick a number) has sat at around 26% for the last three years.

But! (uh oh, it’s time to turn it around)…Forrest Wall has continued to do what he does best. 

What’s that? I assume you could guess. Steal bases.

The 60-grade speed has always been his biggest asset, and over the past three years it’s been on full display.

In 2021, Wall stole 35 bases for the Buffalo Bisons in AAA. Last year? Wall upped his game and stole 52 bases in 120 games at AAA Tacoma. 

This year, Forrest Wall has 44 stolen bases…in 72 games…with Gwinnett. That’s good for second place (behind Dairon Blanco) for the minor league lead.

The bad news is that although Wall’s hit tool is a respectable 55-grade, his power is virtually non-existent. The other strike against him is that he’s not on the Braves’ 40-man roster. That should work against him getting any sort of call-up due to injury or trading players away that are ahead of him on the depth chart.

But if the Braves can work out a deal or two to beef up their playoff run, could Forrest Wall be running himself to another town this summer? 

I’d be willing to roll the dice on an add in a dynasty or deep keeper league if I needed the SB.

That’s all, Razzfolks! If you have any ideas of players that you want a deeper look at, drop them in the comments. As always, if you have any questions or thoughts, you can always catch me here or @MarmosDad on Twitter. Good luck with your SAGNOF plays this week!