SAGNOF: How Many Frelicks Does It Take To Get To The Center Of The Brewers Lineup?

Howdy, Razzball enthusiasts! Welcome back for another quick hit from the office of MarmosDad. For this week’s SAGNOF profile, I figured it would be prudent to include a bit of reference for you younger Razzballers that are puzzled by the title here…

Now putting all candy and Tootsie pop references aside, one thing is for sure – Sal Frelick most certainly does not ‘bite’. 

The Brewers’ #2 prospect, (MLB #30), was drafted 15th overall in the 2021 (!) amateur draft. Now, just two full years after the selection, Frelick finds himself up with the big club. Will he be an immediate impact bat with the opportunity to chip in to help our SAGNOF needs?

The scouting grades are pretty encouraging.

Depending where you check, Frelick’s hit tool grades out to a 60-70 for contact. His speed score sits at that same 60-70 grade. For an outfielder that checks in at 5’9” and 175 pounds, the power projections aren’t overwhelming, (50 grade), but don’t tell him that…

This rookie can RAKE! #ThisIsMyCrew pic.twitter.com/rrKqv9rQcX

— Milwaukee Brewers (@Brewers) July 25, 2023

Just three games into his MLB career, Frelick already has his first home run and is just the second Brewer to collect 5+ hits and a homer in his first 3 games. Throw your guess in the comments here if you think you know who the other one was.

When I checked his minor league stats, I went straight to the SB line. A double plus runner should have burned right through the minor leagues, right? Well, at first glimpse the numbers were a bit deceiving. 

His total SB in each stop along his path to the bigs didn’t crack 10, but that’s just because of how quickly he has moved through the system. In 2021, Frelick played at the Florida Complex League (CPX), A, and A+ where he stole a cumulative total of 12 bases in 35 games. 2022 was much of the same. Frelick sped through A, AA, AAA last year and had a total of 24 SB in 119 GP. 

Frelick’s 2023 season was spent at AAA where he had 8 SB in 183 PA before his call-up to Milwaukee. 

At just 23, Frelick is poised to join the growing group that is MLB’s bunch of young stars. Grey mentions in his Monday recap that the Brewers’ newest outfielder is a must-add in any and all formats, and Itch briefly profiles Frelick in his Top 25 prospects snapshot here.

For the long term, Frelick feels like a guy that could hit 15 homers and steal 30 bases in his prime. For redraft leagues this year, a young player that has progressed this quickly through an MLB system with 5 tool potential is certainly worth a flier if he’s on your waiver wire.

And to answer the original question, it took Sal Frelick all of one game before landing in the clean-up spot in the Brewers lineup. Not a bad place to rack up some counting stats if he sticks there for the long haul.

Speaking of guys with potential over the long haul, how about those league leaders?

• Oh, my king. With the shoulder injury that sent Esteury Ruiz to the IL, it wasn’t tough to predict that Acuna would overtake him atop the SB leaderboard. Despite throwing in the outfield and taking BP on the weekend, Ruiz still doesn’t have a definitive timeline for his return.
• Corbin Carroll keeps climbing the stat ranks in every category, including SBs. It’s been said before, but a rookie with fewer than 100 games played is not supposed to be on the precipice of a 20/30 season. So far so good with those injury concerns. (Rest easy, I typed this with my toes crossed for the anti-jinx).
• Earlier this season I threw in a small FAAB bid ($8 of $1000) for Willi Castro. I figured he was the best available waiver wire replacement at the time for my injured Manny Machado in TGFBI, but that the Twins full infield would push him to the bench when everyone was healthy. That…was not my smartest drop, and Castro should push well past 35 SB on the year with continued playing time. 
• Although our final spot here goes to Nico Hoerner, Jake McCarthy, and Christian Yelich also sit at 22 SB on the year.

As I said a couple of weeks ago, I’ve been looking at Rudy’s Stolen Base Success Rates Against Starting Pitchers (say that one 10X fast) and figured this would be a nice addition to the weekly words here. And, an even better piece of news, it’s one of our FREE tools!

Rudy’s got data on all pitchers from 2019 to today (updated in real-time) that lists innings pitched, stolen bases allowed, caught stealing, and even IP by SB.

After a bit of perusal, I have a few names and numbers for you to peep in a handy dandy chart.

There are a few things that stood out. 

• I went with the bigger sample sizes. Think SB attempts > 20 for most. Kyle Bradish, for example, is not here because he’s only allowed 2 SB in 2 attempts (in 170+ innings!)
• A lot of these guys are SP that have thrown a lot of innings over the last 4 years. I’m sure that doesn’t affect their ability to hold runners, but it certainly gives opponents more opportunity to study them and figure out how to get a better jump.
• From the smaller sample size group (<60 IP)…Colin Rea, Christopher Sanchez, and Kodai Senga all have a SB% against rate greater than 75%.

We’ll finish with the profile of the week. In these, I’ll usually reference the Hittertron SB$ value here just so you can see what kind of roto-dollars the guy is projected to earn over the next 7 days. 

Just a reminder that you can have full access to all of this, along with Streamonator and Relievonator (and more) with our 2023 Razzball Fantasy Baseball Subscriptions.

Zack Gelof – 2B/SS – Oakland ($0.5 SB$ – tied for 12th 2B)

Again, there were a few names to look at here, but I chose Gelof because he’s a recent call-up and the guys did a bit of a run-down on him on last week’s pod.

Like his profiled partner above, Gelof was also a selection in the 2021 June amateur draft (2.24), and is 23 years old. However, unlike Frelick, Gelof’s scouting grades are a bit more uniform across the board.

His hit tool, power, fielding, and speed scores all rate out at or around a 50-grade. That creates a bit of a ‘meh’ for us fantasy baseball GMs, but that doesn’t mean that Gelof isn’t serviceable.

In the minor leagues, Gelof’s double digit steal and home run totals jump out a bit more than Frelick’s did. In 2021, Gelof had a HR/SB split of 7/13 in 36 games. In 2022, Gelof’s HR/SB split was even more encouraging (18/10) in 96 games.

This year, Gelof had a 12/20 line in AAA (69 GP) before getting the call to Oakland. 

In 9 games since his call-up, Gelof has a triple slash line of .273/.351/.545. He’s stolen two bases already and muscled out his first big league home run on Sunday night. 

First career homer for Zack!! ? pic.twitter.com/sTYHk0h0rc

— Oakland A's (@Athletics) July 23, 2023

As I said, the guys went over him a bit on last week’s pod and their outlook ROS made a lot of sense. If Gelof can continue to get everyday ABs, he could post 3-5 HR, 7-12 SB, and a .240 average the rest of the way. If Esteury Ruiz has any setbacks with his recovery, that could open up even more opportunity for playing time for Gelof as Oakland shuffles their defense around to fill in the gaps.

Gelof might not be a great option for 12 team leagues, but he’s worth a check in if you need an MI replacement or could use the wheels.

That’s all, Razzfolks! If you have any ideas of players that you want a deeper look at, drop them in the comments. As always, if you have any questions or thoughts, you can always catch me here or @MarmosDad on Twitter. Good luck with your SAGNOF plays this week!