SAGNOF: Early Bird Closer Specials (JKJ’s version)

What’s poppin’, Razzpimples?

We’re inching closer to March, which means it’s almost bona fide draft szn. The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational kicks off Monday, in fact. Thought it’d be worthwhile to take a quick lil look-see-roo at some bargain closers for 2024 fantasy baseball. Normally, I’m here for SVHD goodness, but this time around is straight-up saves-only content. Sorry not sorry.

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Let’s do it to it.

Note: All ADPs via Yahoo.

Ryan Helsley (ADP 108.8)

Those of you who are familiar with my work know I’m a Cardinals fan. I am unabashedly in love with Ryan Helsley. Now, I know an RP with an ADP nearing the top 100 doesn’t exactly evoke Bargain Bin images in your head, but I want to highlight him anyway, and it’s not just because he makes me feel some kind of way. It’s because we’ve entered an era in fantasy baseball where you have to pay attention to your relievers in most formats, and I think Helsley is cream of the crop in terms of value. Folks be paying up for the likes of DWill, Hader, Edwin, Duran, etc. But you can get that same level of upside several rounds later in Helsley. I mean, maybe you take the slightest of dings in terms of ratios, but the K totals and SV totals should rival just about anyone. Pre-injury Helsley was much worse than post-injury Helsley: when he came back on Sep. 1, he finished the year with just 4 H, 1 ER, and 6 BB allowed in 11.2 IP, striking out 19 and holding opponents to a paltry .108 BA. That’s the Helsley we saw in 2022, and I reckon it’s the Helsley we see in 2024. Plus, it’s not like he was bad from March to June: 25 IP, 18 H, 9 ER, 11 BB, 33 K, .205 OBA. Def willing to bet on the September version, though. Maybe you’ve forgotten how dank his 2022 season was? I’ll remind you it was indeed very dank (in the good stoner way), ranking as the 14th best fantasy season from any RP over the last five years. Did you know we had a historical Player Rater to tell you that kinda thing? Helsley has one of the deadliest fastball-slider combos around: 52.2 Whiff% on the latter! There are no velocity concerns, no job security concerns, no any kind of concerns as far as I’m concerned.

Pete Fairbanks (ADP 131.6)

If I’m gonna highlight Helsley for his elite upside, I gotta also do it for Fairbanks, who ain’t far behind yet is even cheaper. Probably cuz he’s a significant injury risk. You’ll just have to decide if that’s your cuppa tea. I’m just here to tell you that Crazy Eyes Fairbanks has what it takes. Last year he finished with 25 SV, a 2.58 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 13.5 K/9. And yeah, he missed some time. Only tossed 45.1 IP. If you extrapolate that out to what a normal full-ish-time closer should get, you’ve probably got something in the ballpark of 35 SV and upwards of 100 K. And for the sake of my fun mental exercise, let’s give Jason Adam’s 12 SV to Fairbanks, giving him 37 on the year. I mean, do I need to say more? Isn’t everyone paying up for Diaz or Hader or Romano hoping for those totals? I don’t feel like I need to dazzle you with metrics; Fairbanks has proven he’s elite. It’s no fluke. Solely a matter of health. And thus, it’s understandable to pass on him. Health is one thing, but it’s also the Rays. They have a history of sharing saves, making it all the more shocking Fairbanks got 25 of the damn things. I think Mr. Cash has learned that having a reliable elite closer is a good thing, for what it’s worth.

Tanner Scott (ADP 160.7)

This is where things start to get a little more risky than general closer drafting is in the first place, and that’s why paying a bit more of a premium for surer-bet closers is probably the wiser way to do things these days. We’re not far outside of the Top 150 here, folks. So, Mr. Scott is either a bust that you didn’t pay too dearly for, or he’s a major value for a commodity other people are paying top dollar for. My personal style is to grab at least one higher-cost (but not premium cost) closer and then a couple of these types. The Scott types. Cuz man, if we get 2023 Scott, this dude is a banger. One glance-a-roni at the Statcast profile can tell you that much. And the most encouraging part of all that is he did that with a 60th percentile BB%. Not great, but sho ain’t bad! So many times you see tons of red with elite RP on Statcast, only to be marred by a deep blue dot showing they can’t control their nastiness. That was Scott’s problem in the past, but I guess something clicked last year. What exactly that was, I don’t know. All I know is if he can do that again, there’s every reason to expect the same save totals just about anyone else will have, with elite ratios and Ks as icing on the cake. The risk, of course, is whether he can keep that 7.8 BB% of 2023 or the 14-something percent average that it was in all the years before that. Man set a career high in basically everything: 2.66 SIERA, 0.99 WHIP, 104 K, 34.7 CSW%, 33.9 K%, 7.8 BB%, 38.1 O-Swing%, 17.4 SwStr%, and 2.8 WAR. This guy was legit one of the very best relievers in the game last year (#6 RP on the Player Rater) across another career high of 78 IP, so it’s not like he was out there for a smaller sample than we’re used to seeing. Simply sensational stuff. Alliteration affirmation is the best affirmation.

Jose Leclerc (ADP 191.8)

I’ve tooted Leclerc’s horn before (tee hee ha ha), and I really wasn’t exactly wrong about him last year…I just didn’t foresee Smith (and then later Chapman) doing all the saves work back there. But guess what?! They’re gone! Yay! Leclerc is the favorite to close, but he’s not a lock, and that’s why the ADP is where it is. I’m putting my money on him again in 2024. He’s not lights out like he used to be, granted. The days where his K% was pushing 40 are long gone. You’re still in store for quite solid ratios and more strikeouts than innings pitched. He pitches for the defending champs, in case you forgot. Thing is, there’s some competition (namely Josh Sborz, David Robertson, and Kirby Yates). But is a 200-ish ADP really egregious for the upside here? Every outlet projects 19 SV. I’m betting on upwards of 25+.

Alex Lange (ADP 191.9)

I was pretty bang on — or should I say Bange on *wink emoji* — about Lange last year. No shame in a victory lap, my friends. Lange was indeed one of the better closers in 2023, finishing as the #16 RP on the 12-team Player Rater. As things stand right now, 21 other closers are going ahead of him on draft day. Why do people hate this guy so much? Yeah, the WHIP will not be great. So damn what. There should still be a good ERA and 75+ K coming your way, not to mention the 25 or 30 saves. But again, I know the WHIP is scary. Last year’s 1.33 is by no means encouraging, especially given that spiking to an ugly 15.6 BB% was the culprit. I am, however, encouraged that despite being leaned on for lots of high-leverage situations (career-high 32 SVHD in ’23), his H/9 was also a career-best: 5.9. Lange definitely needs to improve his control. I won’t argue that. I will argue he’s still worth your while in fantasy baseball. Well worth your while.

Jose Alvarado (ADP 207.1)

Really thought about kicking off this article with Jose Alvarado, because I think he just might be the biggest bargain in the land of saves, if not all of fantasy baseball. Yes, I’m that high on him. No, I do not think Orion Kerkering is going to vulture the closing gig from him. I’ve seen nothing to suggest Kerkering is getting looks. Kid has 3 IP to his name. It could happen, but I’m not letting it cause me to sleep on Alvarado, who was straight grimy filthy in 2023. I’ll remind you of his 1.74 ERA (albeit not exactly backed up by a 2.68 SIERA), 1.16 WHIP, and 37.2 K%. I’ll also remind you that Craig Kimbrel got 23 SV last year, while Alvarado got 10, so I’ll keep it very simple and total that to 33 SV. That assumes full-time duties and health, neither of which are something Alvarado is used to. But just think of that juicy tasty upside. That’s what the draft is all about, right? You pay up for the guys you know, and then you try to get the best value in the later rounds. By pick 207, it’s Value City. Again, assuming full-time duties and health, you’ve got a dude with probably a minimum of 30 SV, legit 90-100 K upside, and good-if-not-great ratios. Like…what even is this ADP? You want Adbert Alzolay instead? Kenley Jansen? Clay Holmes? Hell, even Lange and Leclerc, whom I just talked about? Why? Alvarado still sitting outside the Top 200 ADP and has upside that rivals Helsley and Fairbanks.

Kyle Finnegan (ADP 220)

Ahhhhh, yes. Another victory lap. I can handle another, don’t worry. I’ve been exercising more lately. Quoting myself last year, I said “Finnegan could still get somewhere along the lines of, what, 20, or 25, or 30 SV? A few projection systems out there have him at either 26 or 27. That’s the easiest #243 draft pick I can think of. We’re talking probably a sub-4.00 ERA, a WHIP in the range of 1.10-1.20, about a strikeout per inning, and relatively lots of saves most likely. I can realistically see Finnegan being one of the best bargains in all of fantasy baseball, no cap. I’m concerned about all the hard hits, but really nothing else jumps out at me other than being slightly below average in the walks department. The fastball velocity is elite and his job is pretty ding dang safe.” Here’s what we got: 69.1 IP, 28 SV, 3.76 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 63 K. Whiffed a little on WHIP and K-rate, but whatever. I’m still lappin’. His ADP at the time of writing that was damn near 250, yet he finished as the #17 RP on the Player Rater. Bingo bango. Folks still sleeping on him, I guess cuz they think Hunter Harvey is gonna run away with thangs. I don’t think that. Why go away from the guy who got you 28 saves? Draft Finnegan for peanuts and eat like royalty.

Robert Suarez (ADP 226.3)

And here we are, the final draft day closer bargain bin item: Robert Suarez. Finally, his time to shine now that Josh Hader went and got himself paid in Houston. There are two ways I see 2024 going for Suarez. Either he’s this year’s Finnegan, or he crumbles under pressure and loses out entirely to Yuki Matsui. And fun fact: Matsui struck out the side in his first taste of MLB action yesterday. But, still, let’s not worry about Suarez yet. Fact remains he’s an established high-leverage reliever who just so happens to be paid quite a lot of money relative to his fellow cohorts in the Padres pen. Even makes almost twice as much annually as Matsui. That kinda money usually belongs to the guy a team wants closing out games. Suarez should be the main man in the ninth to start the season, and so all he’s gotta do is hang onto that role. Easy, right? In 2022, his first year in the MLB at the young age of 31, he posted a 2.27 ERA and 1.05 WHIP, flashing a 5.5 H/9 and 11.5 K/9, the latter of which was never his forte over in Japan. Last year, the WHIP got even better (0.90), but the K-rate dipped back down closer to where he was in Japan (7.8 K/9). He appeared in 27 games and was never called upon earlier than the 7th inning (7th x7, 8th x19, 9th x1), and the vast majority of those were in games where he was protecting a tie or lead no greater than two runs. He was also a dominant closer in Japan (2021: 42 SV, 1.16 ERA, 0.77 WHIP), which is why they brought the damn dude over in the first place. He’s used to this. He should be primed for a massive 2024 breakout while not breaking your bank if things don’t work out as planned.

That’s all for this week! Thanks for reading. Leave me a comment below so I feel all warm and fuzzy.