In the spreadsheet I released this past Sunday there was a column on the “Rankings” tab labeled “Draft Score”. Several of you asked in the comments section what it meant. I thought I’d take this opportunity explain. And while I’m at it, I also thought I’d point out some players that stick out as obvious draft day bargains according to their estimated draft score.
Here is my response to the inquiries about draft score with a few minor modifications.
“FVARz dictates a player’s value compared to the rest of the players. We get there by determining each players’ value above the replacement player at his position. The replacement player is the player you can get off the wire.
A simple example is if you are in a 10-team league and you start only one 2B, then your league really only cares about 10 second basemen. The 11th 2B is considered the replacement 2B. It’s a little more complicated than that in that we probably care about 12 second basemen making the 13th the replacement, but it should give you the idea.
So when choosing between two players, use FVARz. Draft score is just indicator as to whether you are getting good value at the pick. However, I’d always take the player with the higher FVARz regardless of draft score.
However, we shouldn’t ignore FTPS (fantasy points) as this is ultimate stat. FVARz allows you to compare players across positions. A catcher that is estimated to score less FPTS than a 1B might still have a higher FVARz because of position scarcity. It would probably be better to skip on Anthony Rizzo and take Buster Posey and then grab Edwin Encarnacion two rounds later. The difference between Rizzo and Encarnacion will be slimmer than that between Posey and let’s say Brian McCann.
What I really use draft score is to make sure I draft a player while his draft score is still positive. So if Chris Archer has an ADP of 53 and a ranking of 30, that means he has an initial draft score of 23. If you pick him in with the 4th pick of the 4th round of a 12-team league, you have drafted Archer with the 40th overall pick. That means his final draft score was +10 and that’s good. That means you got him ten picks after where he should have been picked if everyone was drafting based on your league specific rankings.”
Using the spreadsheet I set the scoring system to match below. Then I sorted the “Draft Score” column in descending order and looked for players with a rank around 100 and a draft score of greater than 50. Here’s who stood out.
Nick Castellanos (Rank: 105, ADP 160, Draft Score: 55) – Notice how I prefaced this section by saying that I looked for players with a rank of “around” 100. This was so that I could include Castellanos. Last year he scored 378 points on the back of 26 home runs, 101 RBIs and a .272 batting average. He just turned 26 years old and I believe he can, and will, continue to approve. He also comes with dual eligibility at 3B/OF.
Josh Bell (Rank: 80, ADP 176, Draft Score: 96) – This is a guy that I think is rather underrated. Like Castellanos, he also hit 26 home runs last year, putting up a total of 372 points. Another young player at 25, I can see him building on his 2017 season and finishing as a top 12 1B. That’s not too shabby for a player you can get in the 14th or 15th rounds.
Yadier Molina (Rank: 71, ADP 158, Draft Score: 87) – It feels like Yadier has been around forever. He is entering his 15th season in the MLB, all of which have been with the St. Louis Cardinals. Last year he finished as the third highest scoring catcher, just 17 points behind Gary Sanchez. Molina did play in 14 more games than Sanchez, but nonetheless he was the third most productive catcher. In fact, Molina has been a top catcher year after year. So the question is, why waste an early pick on Posey or Sanchez when you sacrifice a little production at catcher and grab Molina in the 13th round.
Ender Inciarte (Rank: 88, ADP 160, Draft Score: 80) – I can’t figure out why Ender isn’t getting more love coming in to this season. Last year he was a top 15 OF finishing right between Andrew Benintendi and Christian Yelich. I see no reason he can’t be a top 20 OF in 2018. I wonder if he has a twin brother named Beginner.
Carlos Santana (Rank: 33, ADP 120, Draft Score: 87) – Santana has the opportunity to be a points league MVP this year based on his ADP. He was a top ten first baseman last season scoring over 400 points. The move to Philly should only help his production. I’d say there’s something pretty valuable in drafting a top ten 1B in the 10th round. Personally I’d grab him a round or two before then.
Kyle Seager (Rank: 70, ADP 146, Draft Score: 76) – Seager might be boring, but if you’re looking for a later round 3B that’s going to give you 27 homers and about 90 runs batted in, then Kyle might be your man. Except for a dip in batting average last season, he’s been pretty consistent the last several seasons.
Eric Hosmer (Rank: 61, ADP 114, Draft Score: 53) – I feel like Hosmer is another underrated player. Last year he was a top five 1B. I don’t expect quite the same finish this year, but a top ten is certainly likely.
How to identify draft bargains:
After you set you league settings and click “Calculate Rankings”, go to the “Rankings” tab and sort the “Draft Score” column in descending order.
I have attached a slightly updated version of the spreadsheet that addresses the following issues:
- Fixed the WHIP column for pitchers (thanks MD)
- If your league has the IF (infield) position you can simulate this by setting 1B/3B to 0.5 and 2B/SS to 0.5
- Updated ADP
I’m starting to work on a way to change the player pool to AL-only and NL-only, but I’m not quite there. I’m also looking into support the “P” position. Also a work in progress.
malamoney’s Points League Rankings Spreadsheet
Follow me on Twitter at @malamoney.
