Two days ago, Justin Bour hit 2 home runs against the New York Mets. Prior to that game, though, Bour had 6 hits in 37 at-bats with 1 run scored and 1 RBI. As a result, my inbox was inundated with questions regarding Bour and the ownership percentage in ESPN leagues went down 13.4% to 59.1%. My inbox wasn’t inundated with questions regarding Bour. That honor goes to the Nigerian prince that continues to profess his willingness to help out society by giving everyone money. The decrease in ownership, though, was indeed real. Is it warranted? The plate discipline numbers seem fine. Bour is swinging a little less than normal, but the contact rates are in line. The batted ball profile is where things are out of whack. More ground balls, fewer line drives, more infield pop ups, less hard contact, tons of soft contact, and more hits to the opposite field. No surprise then that the BABIP is .200 and batting average is .190. The strikeout rate of 22.2% is close to the career average, but the walk rate of 6.7% is well below the 10% career average.
My interpretation is that Bour’s timing is just off. It’s been 11 games!!! The most encouraging for me in the early going is that Bour is playing against lefties. The Marlins batted him 5th in the lineup against Chris Sale. Who else are they going to play? TREASURE
Preston Tucker (53% owned – increase of 50.8%) was the most added player in ESPN leagues. A .303 average with 2 home runs and 9 RBI start will do that. Now imagine going to a party where there’s no more liquor or the DJ broke his turntables or someone was so messed up that they turned into the Tazmanian Devil Exorcist, spewing their vomit while doing what the Tazmanian Devil do. I have a sneaky suspicion that Tucker could be the most dropped next week, as our Lord and Savior, Ronald Acuna could be up with the big club this weekend. I like Tucker. He’s a good hitter, with pop and a mature approach at the plate. Unfortunately, he will probably be the fourth outfielder and be a daily league or DFS play against RHP. TRASH
I was high on Jakob Junis (51.8% owned – increase of 40.6%) coming into the season, as I own him in almost every league. I suspect the increase in ownership was primarily due to the 2-start week, but he is 2-0 and has not allowed an earned run on the season so…..Let’s see what the numbers say. Gotta say, them some smart ass numbers. Anyways, the K/9 is a yyyyaaaaawwwwnnnnn 5.79 and swinging strike rate is 9%. The walk rate is only 1.93, though. For perspective, only six pitchers ended with a BB/9 fewer than 2 last season. He’s limiting hard contact (22.2%) and….wouldn’t you know? The soft contact is at 22.2%. Junis is in complete harmony. He is at one with the universe. No wonder he’s been balling!! I kid. I kid. There are some troubling things that portend for some rough times ahead. The BABIP is .111 and he’s stranded 100% of runners. Those are obviously not sustainable. In addition, while the ERA is at 0, the xFIP is at 4.53. Ever hear of that expression: it’s better to be lucky than good? Well…I like Junis, as mentioned above, but I’m going to the store for lots of sandbags to dig in and prepare for the inevitable assault on my ratios. TRASH (from current levels, but will always be a TREASURE in my heart….unless he completely destroys my ratios)
Dansby Swanson (42.7% owned – increase of 24.3%) was the overall number one pick back in 2015. Then, he was essentially traded for Shelby Miller. Nice job Diamondbacks. Anyways, Swanson has been a polarizing figure on the Twitter machine recently, so I thought taking a deeper look into things would be fun. So far to begin the season, Swanson is batting .366 with a home run, 8 RBI, and a stolen base. It’s getting hot in here. So take off all your clothes. Striking out only 19%. Good. ISO of .220. Excellent. Walk rate of 2.4%. No bueno. BABIP of .438. Uh, yeah. Now, he has a nice approach at the plate, utilizing the whole field (30% to left/center/right) and not trying to kill the gophers. Line drive rate of 28%, coupled with a 1.09 GB/FB rate is nice. The contact rates and plate discipline numbers all look fine. Here’s the thing. Swanson played 3 games in Coors Field, where he went 6-for-12 with his lone home run and 4 of his RBIs. All the projection systems have him down for a .260 average with the chance to go 10/5 on the season. Nothing in the early season numbers lend me to veer from those projections. TRASH
