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I went back to my room at the Radisson. (This is not a sponsored post.) I laid my head down. Lied my head down? Ya know, because I was lying to the doorman when he asked if I had friends. It was none of his business. Plus, what was he doing in my room? Did each room at the Radisson have a doorman? I asked him that, then asked that he show himself out. After tucking me in. The tucking, the doorman did. It was so tight it was suffocating. I could barely breathe. So, I jostled around in the bed like a caterpillar shedding its skin, would I become a butterfly? Likely, yes. I was able to get one hand out of the tucked-in sheet and grab the mechanical claw I had on the nightstand that I used to feed myself grapes, so I could imagine I was a Russian prince. After the grape dropped into my mouth, I reached, with the mechanical claw, to grab a twenty dollar bill to light on fire to start myself a cigar. Earlier that day, I withdrew my life savings in twenties, and placed them precariously on the window sill. Hmm, I thought, if I lit a cigar in this non-smoking room, I might want to open the window first–
NOOOOOOOOOO!!!
Torendao!!!
So, I never wanted to write a Nolan Arenado overrated post. If it was up to me, I would’ve grown old, favoring my left leg and the righty, Cardinals third baseman. Sometimes I just have a natural inclination to boost the love muscles on a player, and Nolan Arenado is definitely one guy I like more than maybe I should. As they say at Sizzler, “You can’t underestimate the sizzle sound or its effect on one’s brain,” and Arenado gave me that sizzle sound. For many years. *quick about face* But no more! So, what can we expect from Nolan Arenado for 2022 fantasy baseball and what makes him overrated?
Lets’ do everyone’s favorite game, Who is Player A and Who is Player B, Based on Their Stats Alone!
Player A: 83/29/96/.262/2 in 556 ABs
Player B: 82/22/84/.276/2 in 502 ABs
Player A clearly has more power, and a week’s worth of RBIs, but he’s projected for more than 50 ABs, so the average being lower is more of a drain there. One of them is clearly Nolan Arenado. If it’s not clear to you, then you might consider rereading the title of this post. Any guesses which is Arenado? Yes, Player A. Who’s Player B? He’s going about 100 picks later in drafts. No, it’s not my favorite 3rd base sleeper, Jeimer Candelario, but another good guess! Did you just guess Player B is also Nolan Arenado? Have you recently been hit in the head? No! It’s Justin Turner. Of course, Turner is older and who knows on his average, but he also hit 27 homers last year, so who knows on the “only” 22 homers either. Less about what Justin Turner can do, and more about what Nolan Arenado is doing.
Nolan Arenado’s fly ball rate (49.8%) has become untenable. His 20-degree Launch Angle is fueling that. Top ten guys in the league for Launch Angle: Adam Duvall, Joey Gallo, Austin Meadows, Robbie Grossman, Ozzie Albies, Eduardo Escobar, Marcus Semien, Arenado, Kyle Seager, and Mike Yastrzemski. BABIPS are all pretty similar for those guys, except Albies and Semien, who have speed. What do all those guys do? Or rather, do any of them hit for as high as Arenado’s projected .262 average? Arenado just hit for .255, and I have him projected for .252. His expected average last year was even worse at .248. Yes, I just spent 300 words talking about the difference in a projected .262 and .252, but this points to a larger point. The projections are lagging on Arenado’s career and fly ball trajectories. They’re moving in opposite directions. So, Arenado hits a lot of fly balls, that’s good for power, right?
This past year, the Cardinals decided to go the way of the dodo and stick their heads in the sand like an ostrich, and install a humidor to watch their hitting fly the coup. Hey, no offense, are they dumb? Well, no offense is usually what happens, but the humidor in St. Louis, does what exactly? See, in Colorado, the humidor drags down the balls, by adding humidity. But in a high-humidity climate it would pull humidity out and add offense. So, what’s St. Louis? A little of both. In theory, the humidor should’ve added some offense, having Busch became more neutral than the pitchers’ park it was or the hitters’ park, it might’ve wanted to become. How did this play out in reality? Busch was ranked dead last for Park Factors on Statcast, just after Oakland and Seattle. So, the park still sucks? Yes, but at worst it’s neutral. None of this is helping Nolan Arenado. Betting on a power resurgence from Nolan Arenado because he pulls a lot of 310-foot fly balls? Not a great bet, Bob. Unless he gets traded to Fenway. Not the Red Sox, but just hits in Fenway. Of those ten fly ball heavy hitters I mentioned above, Arenado’s average batted ball was the shortest. In fact (Grey’s got more!), the recently retired Kyle Seager had a 8.2% Barrels/Plate Appearance; Arenado’s was only 5.2. Five point two?! That’s the score a Russian judge gives a Ukrainian gymnast.
Could I continue to bash Nolan Arenado’s numbers besides his average and power? Sure! He’s got no speed. His runs and RBIs are out of his hands. As bad as his actual stats were last year, his expected stats were worse! On par with Phillip Evans, David Bote and Chas McCormick. Who? Yeah, those guys! Arenado’s xwOBA was the same as a teammate. Any sad guesses which one? I’ll give you a hint, he did it in the lavatory with a plunger. Yes, Colonel Mustard aka Paul DeJong. When I searched for Arenado’s xSLG and saw .420, I wanted to get as high as his fly balls and forget I ever loved this man. Put Nolan Arenado by an open window, call on a Torenado to get him out of here, because he’s a schmohawk!
