Mookie Almost Certainly Isn’t Mookie Anymore – Is It Time To Move On From A First Round Pick?

Anyone who has watched Mookie Betts this year can see something is very wrong. Blame this year’s struggles on his preseason virus-related weight loss if you will, but that weight loss and weakness don’t explain away last year’s big dip in performance. Something is different, and it’s bad.

In my July 3rd article on NL West middle infield depth charts, I said I thought Mookie was still a solid player, but just not the player his drafters might have hoped for. By the following week’s article, I was even more lukewarm on Betts, but I wasn’t ready to completely give up on him by that point. And then a reader asked me if I would prefer Otto Lopez or Betts for the rest of the season, and I realized that I’m not actually sure how I would answer that. Whoa.

Let’s look at the two players’ stat lines. Which player would you prefer based on performance?:

**All stats as of end of day on Tuesday, July 30th.

Based on performance stats alone, an argument can probably be made for either player over the other. Player 1 is clearly a benefit in Rs, and his tendency to hit the ball in the air more often theoretically gives him a better opportunity to hit a HR. That said, Player 1’s LA is a bit extreme considering he doesn’t hit the ball hard at all. For Player 2, there is clearly a plus difference in speed, and he’s more consistently making good contact with the ball. I feel like Player 2 is more likely to maintain a useful AVG and get on base more often to be in position to score Rs. Neither of these guys can be depended on to hit a ton of HRs based on the underlying numbers. That makes the fact that Player 1 hits the ball in the air so often seem like an invitation for him to hit lots of lazy flyballs to the outfield. And the fact that Player 2 hits the ball on the ground more often would seem to give him a better chance of having a higher AVG. 

If I had to choose between the two based on performance stats alone, I’d lean toward player 2.

Now, let’s throw Statcast expected stats into the equation. Which would you prefer now?:

In my mind, the Statcast numbers make the choice easy: Player 2 is the preferred player. 

You’ve probably figured out that Otto Lopez is Player 2. So stat line vs. stat line, Otto Lopez looks like the better bet. Yikes. Since Betts is 99-100% rostered on the most popular public sites (like CBS, ESPN, and Yahoo), it seems reasonable to expect players with a significantly lower roster percentage to have markedly lower stats. Lopez is rostered at 69% in CBS leagues and at only 40% in both ESPN and Yahoo leagues. Hmm, the math isn’t math-ing.

But maybe Lopez is just having an outlier-level good year. Let’s check out a couple of other players that might make for interesting comparisons. Each of these players is rostered well below Mookie’s 99-100% – in fact, no player I discuss below will be rostered at higher than 75%. For simplicity sake, I will use just Yahoo’s roster percentages.

If you find yourself reviewing the stats above and struggling to identify a player that you would feel completely comfortable starting Betts over, that’s bad, right? 

When I look at the list and pay no attention to the player name attached to them, Player 5 is the only player on the list I wouldn’t be interested in possibly playing in place of Mookie. Player 3 hasn’t played as much as Betts and certainly offers less speed, but on a per PA basis, he looks like a better hitter. You should also know that the latest rumors put Player 3 likely to head back to his old team in Houston where he can benefit from the Crawford Boxes. Player 6’s expected stats are worse, but you should also know that since June 1st when he started finally moving his season in a positive direction, he has increased his AVG by 41 points, OBP by 33 points, SLG by 43 points, and his OPS by 76 points. 

Here is the full list of players who own the stats samples above:

Player 3: Carlos Correa

Player 4: Jackson Holliday

Player 5: Zach McKinstry

Player 6: Matt McLain

Player 7: Trevor Story

Player 8: Anthony Volpe.

Not a single one of those guys was drafted anywhere near Betts’s 1st or 2nd round ADP, but based on the stats I listed and not on the players’ names, how many of them would you choose right now to play over Mookie?

I hope Mookie finds himself again – SOON. But if I’m rostering him, I just can’t wait any longer for him to figure it out. Based on the roster percentages I listed, surely, you can find at least one of those players on your waiver wire. I understand not dropping Mookie, out of hope if nothing else, but playing him seems like a good way to fall more and more behind. Good luck as you look to find his replacement. 

Until next week. – ADHamley