Noted philosopher and baseball Hall of Famer Yogi Berra wisely advised ballplayers to do this one simple thing: “Swing at strikes.” We all know it’s not that simple, even if it’s easy for us to sit at home and question the professional baseball player on TV, let’s make up an entirely fictional ballplayer called Bavier Jaez, “Why would you SWING AT THAT, Bavy Jaez?!?!” on some nasty 90-mph slider that tunnels perfectly with a 98 mph outside-corner fastball but moves 11” horizontally out of the zone at the last minute. Likewise, the same question could be asked in reverse about how a batter can take that pitch right down the pipe.
However unbelievable it may be to us laypersons, many of these pros *can* and *do* spit on the bad pitches, select mainly the good pitches, and hit the good pitches hard. Those are the guys we’re focusing on in this article–guys with an O-Swing% (percent of the time a guy swings at a ball) under 30%, a Z-Contact% (percent of the time a guy swings at a strike), and a Hard% over 38% (the baseline I used last time as “good”). I’m trying to find undervalued guys who I think this data says should be drafted higher at their position than some Schmohawks going earlier (based on FantasyPros consensus ADPs).
I’ll start with a guy who I nearly put into my last article, but I didn’t find enough dudes in front of him where I thought I’d take this guy first. He’s now 2-for-2 in my data dive, so in and up he goes–Spencer Torkelson. Not only does he pull the ball, hit it high, and hit it hard, but he’s got a terrific eye at only a 28% O-Swing%. That good eye doesn’t mean he’s passive in the zone, though, as he carries an 86% Z-Contact% (on a 70% Z-Swing%). His Hard% is 38%, and at a young 24 years old, it’s not hard at all to imagine him taking another step forward in power. His breakout last year was blasting 31 HRs, and with his quality of contact metrics, his pull tendencies, and his keen eye at the plate, I think his AVG, OBP, and power output all tick up in 2024. Grey’s Razzball projections agree, pegging Tork for 34 bombs in 2024. Using the FantasyPros consensus ADP, I’d almost certainly take him before both Y. Diazes (Yandy and Yainer), who are the two picks right in front of him in 1B ADP and I may even bump him to the front of the Spencer Steer/Christian Walker/Triston Casas group. I think a pretty reasonable case could be made to keep Casas ahead of Tork, but I don’t have to squint hard to see him having a better year than 32-year-old Christian Walker (2023: 33 HRs vs 31 for Tork, .333 OBP vs .313 for Tork, lower Hard% than Tork the last three years, lower Pull%, higher O-Swing%, lower Z-Contact%, lower Hard%). Tork’s Hard-hit% is 94th percentile, far outpacing any of the guys mentioned in this blurb (except Yandy).
It’s the weekend, and though my strong preference is Tito’s, I’ll mix with a Ketel if I have to–and I’m mixing Ketel Marte into this piece. Marte also rocks a 28% O-Swing%, and his Z-Contact% is even higher than Tork’s at 89% while matching Tork at 38% Hard%. Gleyber Torres is going ahead of Ketel in ADP, and while being competitive with Ketel in the first two of these metrics, his Hard% lags Ketel by about 5%. To be clear, this isn’t anti-Gleyber, as I also like him this year, just not ahead of Ketel. This goes double for Ha-Seong Kim, as Kim also gets taken before Ketel but has even shabbier batted ball data by the data used for this article. Kim’s great eye is offset by his passivity in-zone (only a 57% Z-Swing%), and when he does decide to swing, his Hard% is only around 27%. Give me Ketel over each of these two that drafters are taking earlier. Ketel also far outpaces Gleyber and Ha-Seong in Hard-Hit%.
A couple of OFs this data combination really likes, despite my doubts about whether they’ll swing more, are Brandon Nimmo and Lars Nootbaar. Everything under the hood for these guys screams fantasy impact, except one–they don’t swing much. Nimmo’s Z-Contact% of 88% and Hard% of 38% tell you there’s juice from the squeeze…but he doesn’t like to squeeze much, with only a 60% Z-Swing%. Nimmo hit a career-high 24 HRs last year, which isn’t nothing, but I think there are 28-30 HRs in that bat with just a little more aggression in the zone. I had too many shares of Nootbaar last year and didn’t really get paid off for it, as any of you 2023 Nootbaar owners reading right now remember. He makes great contact in-zone on swings (89% Z-Contact%), and his Hard%, while not meeting my 38% threshold, is not slappy at 36%. I believe there are 22-25 HRs in there, but he will have to swing more than the 55% of the time in-zone he did in 2023. Katie Woo also reports in The Athletic that Nootbaar has revamped his swing over the offseason to add more power to his game. If that’s true, he may not even need to change his approach much to unlock another handful+ of HRs (though let’s do it anyway, Noot).
The optimist in me says, “Nim and Noot are just a teeny tiny change in aggressiveness from really being valuable fantasy contributors–get them at their prices now!” but the pessimist in me says when somebody shows you who they are, believe them. There’s no reason to think either of these guys will just start swinging more in-zone, but if they do…
Editor’s Note: Lars broke his Nootbaars (ribs) and might be out for awhile here, but can still be considered for when he returns. See Keelin’s article for more information on this injury.
