You know when you go to a baseball game and you get to look down at the seats you wish you could sit in but we both know you cannot afford. At the same time, you look up at the cheap seats and laugh. Who is paying five dollars for a ticket when you can shell out ten dollars for the Mezzanine level? In this week’s article, our hitter profiles focus on that 200 level in the outfield and what guys are landing at 200 above ADP. These guys can be of value for you later in the draft in what is shaping up to be a deep field of veteran hitters. So let us go deep and gone for this week’s dive in our hitter profiles.
Marcell Ozuna (ADP – 206)
Let us get one thing out of the way first, do we condone the off field behavior of Marcell Ozuna? No, he would not be the kind of guy you are looking at to build team chemistry. There probably is not a fit for the over 30 year-old slow pitch softball league as well. For our purposes, the bigger question is what he produces on the field rather than the virtual club dynamic. Now that we have that out of the way, we are left to wonder if he will even make it on the field? In this case the answer should be yes. The Braves are on the hook for $16 million a year through 2024 and need to utilize that spend in the newly created DH spot.
Now that we have established our feelings and that playing time should be there, what can we expect from Marcell? Well 2021 was pretty distasteful on the field as well with a large drop in hard hit rate and exit velocity. On the luck side he struggled with a career low BABIP and a HR/FB% at about half of the prior two years. Through it all, his plate discipline appeared to remain consistent. As a guy with a long track record of success in the batter’s box, I expect a rebound of sorts getting a clean slate in 2022. I would pencil him in across 150 games for a line of 74/26/88/2/.278 which is very solid at this point in the draft. Do not let the last year dissuade your draft choice.
Adam Duvall (ADP – 233)
I wrote about Adam Duvall earlier this off-season and how his splits can or cannot be used in combination with other players. For this article, we are looking at how he is being drafted over pick 220 as a key piece of the Atlanta outfield. Duvall is not going to blow us away with his average but he does bring 35 home run power late in the draft. At this point, there are a lot of other guys that are hoping to end up with the numbers Duvall already has produced. He is discounted because he is not a sexy or exciting name, but he does bring value at this point. Why draft Joey Gallo when you can grab a better version 50 picks later:
- Gallo (2021) in 153 games: 90/38/77/6/.199
- Duvall (2021) in 146 games: 67/38/113/5/.228
Josh Donaldson (ADP – 205)
Former All-Star Josh Donaldson has faded from fantasy glory over the last few years. However, he still remained a useful asset for those managers looking for a corner infielder or backend third baseman. Donaldson provided additional intrigue over the last few seasons as his underlining numbers continue to be as strong as they were when he was an all-star. Take a look at his savant metrics as they are mighty impressive.
Donaldson is entering his age 36 season which can be a cause for concern. However, his value has never been from his amazing speed or outstanding athleticism even though he was quite the glove man in his prime. His value stems from his patience at the plate and his power. In 2021, Donaldson was top of the league in exit velocity, walk rates and barrels. His biggest downfall was some poor luck in the power space as his xHR indicates that he should have seen five more balls leave the yards. Simply playing a full season in 2022 would deliver a line similar to that of Kris Bryant without the speed rounding out at 82/29/81/0/.247. Keep in mind those numbers are coming in over 100 picks after Bryant and 60-70 pick behinds guys like Ke’Bryan Hayes and Yoan Moncada. With those underlying numbers and a little luck, there is plenty of room for profit. Donaldson is one of my favorite buys this preseason.
