Last week our hitter profiles focused on those guys making a sprint to the finish. Sticking with our running theme, this week we will focus on the gentlemen that tried to run the hurdles and clipped the last one to face plant right before the finish line. What can we learn about their 2020 value from their late season 2021 failures? Should we stay away or invest with confidence? Stay with us as we dig into the Late Fade for some early 2022 hitter profiles.
Eloy Jimenez
After tearing a pectoral muscle in spring training during 2021, Jimenez made a miraculously quick recovery by joining the White Sox at the end of July. In the first 30 games back, Eloy hit the ground running with 8 long balls, 30 runs batted in and a solid .277 average. This translates loosely to a 40-homer season which falls right in line with the pace for his first two seasons in the MLB. However, as the calendar turned to September, Jimenez began to scuffle. Across 25 games at the end of the season, there was a hefty total of 2 homers driven by a .213 average. These results ultimately raise questions of what Eloy will bring in 2022. While we ponder those questions, let us look back at the power numbers from 2020 when we have the most recent percentile ranks for Eloy:
Throughout the early draft season, Eloy is jumping off the board at the backend of the top 20 outfielders in the 6th round. Sandwiched between guys like Nick Castellanos and Byron Buxton, the market indicates little concern with that final month of the season, and I must agree. Everybody has a tough month here and there which often evens out over a long season. For Eloy, the last month of 2021 was rough but also represented the unluckiest month of his career in the HR/FB department. We also must consider that he returned earlier than anticipated last season which certainly opens the door to impacts to his performance as the season closed out. Add in his likely cleanup spot in a top 10 offense during 2022 and the price is right.
Jazz Chisholm
Jazz was a story of three different phases of the 2021 season. Unfortunately, each phase indicated another step back compared to the previous one. Take a look:
| Dates | Games | Homeruns | Stolen Bases | B% | K% | Average | BABIP |
| 4/1/21 – 4/27/21 | 22 | 4 | 9 | 10.6% | 30.6% | .311 | .422 |
| 5/26/21 – 6/14/21 | 22 | 4 | 2 | 5.0% | 33.0% | .269 | .375 |
| 6/15/21 – 10/03/2021 | 80 | 10 | 12 | 6.2% | 26.7% | .226 | .281 |
Jazz got off to a blazing start showing some pop, speed, and the ability to hit for average before landing on the IL with a left hamstring strain. Upon returning, across the next month Jazz appeared to pick up where he left off, but we see signs of concern as the average drops to .269 buoyed with a .375 BABIP and concerning 33% strikeout rate. Once the summer months warmed, Jazz really cooled. The last three and a half months brought a .226 average, 66% success rate on steals, and power output barely surpassing his hot start.
Taking the season overall, an xBA of .238 with nearly a nearly 50% groundball rate will be a challenge for the power figures. Pair that with plate discipline in the bottom 20% of the league, I am concerned. There is talent here but high variability and a basket full of warning signs. Jazz is going off the board as the 7th second baseman in early drafts just ahead of Brandon Lowe and Ketel Marte. We discussed Lowe last week and Marte is a much safer bet as well. Stay away, far away, at this price, and let the music play elsewhere with Jazz.
