There’s a ton of outfielder sleepers. My eyes skimmed over Jurickson Profar at 225 overall in drafts and I don’t buy his previous year either, but at 225 overall? That seems absurd. I was thinking I would have to write a Jurickson Profar overrated post, but now I’m talking about him in a sleeper post. Oh, he’s not a sleeper, but heed my words (I sound like George Bush Sr.): If a player gets 500+ ABs, it’s hard not to be more valuable than 225 overall. Anyway, my point is there’s a ton of guys I’m seeing that are priced well in the outfielders. Some that jumped out to me were Jesus Sanchez, TJ Friedl, Tyler Fitzgerald and his teammate, Heliot Ramos, who brings us to this post. All the guys in the preceding sentence nearly received a sleeper post from me, and if Polymarket, DraftKings or MGM or whoever let me bet that all of those guys would receive sleeper posts from other people, I’d slam the over on that bet. They’re all being drafted too late. Heliot Ramos is sexy though, and why I wanted to dedicate a post to him. What tripped me up on the others? Jesus Sanchez can’t hit lefties, TJ Friedl is older, and Tyler Fitzgerald felt like he had Maas Appeal, and not long-term, so he might actually might not pass the sniff test. The Sniff Test is a very important test. So, what can we expect from Heliot Ramos for 2025 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
PSYCHE! My 2025 fantasy baseball rankings on the Patreon started last week and are ongoing. Don’t wait for the rankings to come out next month. Anyway II, the Heliot Ramos sleeper:
When you look up Barrels/Plate Appearance % and your guy is in the top 15, you might want to slow your roll and investigate. In other words:
Point out the bad actor. The miscreant! The neer-do-well! You will do well to not try, I’m telling you that right now. All of these guys look great. Heliot Ramos killed it after being called up. Naturally, it was fluky, right? Are you naturally not with it in the head? When he was called up, I nicknamed him, Helio Studwagon and sang:
And I can’t fight this rookie nookie anymore,
I’ve forgotten what I started fighting for (which stinks because we’re roughly 72 hours into the season),
It’s time to bring this shizz into the shore and onto my team,
And throw away the either/or’s forever.
Baby, I can’t hold Steven Matz anymore, but how about this Heliot Ramos fella!
He looks great, or as they say in San Fran “hella,”
I need him on my team, er,
His projections are insane from Steamer!
And that’s me singing me! Me lyricing me? Meh, you get it. His projections when called up at the Prospectonator were fire under a helium balloon. Some of the best projections I’ve seen for a rookie. Oh, just your mundane, ho-hum 20+ HRs and 10 steals. Giddy. Now emphasis this word more: UP! I told everyone to grab him when he was called up and he didn’t disappoint. So, why is he being drafted after guys like Francisco Alvarez? Well, it’s easy to say peeps be dumb, and peeps may be dumb, but alas. His projections from Steamer aren’t bad this year either, 68/22/72/.249/7 in 144 games and 546 ABs, though I gotta be honest and say it feels like Steamer is needlessly negative on young players. I get it! They have less of a track record, but Heliot went 54/22/72/.269/6 his rookie year in 475 ABs and 121 games. He’s going to be worse his second year? I mean, he might be, but I don’t see it.
Heliot Ramos hit 2nd or 3rd for the majority of the year, so one would assume similar lineup placement. That gives him roughly 80/75 runs and RBIs, at worst. If he can hold the lineup spot. So, he could his rookie year, but not his sophomore season? Meh, maybe, but no idea why he wouldn’t beat 72 RBIs of last year and easily beat 68 runs, as projected above. Power is supposed to be his biggest attribute. 22 homers last year testifies to that, so why would he hit the same number of homers again this year with 20+ more games? His speed is easy 15-steal speed, but he didn’t run much last year. Though, more comfortable on the basepaths with speed and only one more steal? It makes no sense. Finally, his Hit Tool.
That could be an issue. He hit .242 in the 2nd half vs. .298 in the 1st, and he hit .370 vs. lefties and only .240 vs. righties. His .329 BABIP on the year seems about right but can he make the necessary adjustments? In the 2nd half, he had a 24.7 K% vs. 27.4% in the 1st, and his best month of his MLB career for contact was September with a 20.2 K%. His Hard Hit% went from 53 in June, down to 40 in July and August to 50.7 in September. In June, his average exit velocity was 92.5. That dropped to 89.2 MPH in those bad months, then ended the year at 94 for his best month. His line drive rate of 25.3% was the highest in September too. His average did not bounce back in September, but his BABIP was down. He was not really a .298 hitter in the 1st half, but he’s also not a .242 hitter as he was in the 2nd.
So, Heliot Ramos just turned 25, and projections are saying he won’t get better, even though he actually did get better last year the more he saw. Not to talk funny and make him Helium Ramos, but there’s no reason he should not be drafted way before where he’s going. For 2025, I’ll give Heliot Ramos projections of 79/26/78/.266/10 in 549 ABs with a chance for more.
