DFS: I Always Wear My Red Socks When I Sing(er)

Another stretch of Opening Days has MLB games littered throughout the day. Some of us will love an irrelevant Coors Field contest (not on the early or main slate), but there are still plenty of stackable offenses and top tier pitchers available. On the 3 game early slate, most people will roster Skubal and Bobby Miller (and why wouldn’t you?) and fill out the roster with cheap pieces on the offense. An easy way to differentiate is to stack the expensive LAD instead.

I will be focusing on the 7 game main slate on DraftKings, analyzing the data we have, and building lineups that can legitimately compete for first place. I have isolated four offenses that represent the best hitting matchups on the slate. Most people will be stacking ATL vs. T. Henry. Already producing as a top offense in ‘24, ATL put up the best numbers vs. LHPs in ‘23. HOU wasn’t far behind ATL last year vs. LHPs and leads the league in wRC+ this season by a wide margin overall. Both ATL and HOU will have to face good bullpens once they inevitably knock out the starters. CIN struggles with K%, but faces a LHP who allows a good amount of hard contact and the game is being played in Great American SmallPark. Finally, Patrick Corbin represents perhaps the most attackable SP in the eyes of DFS players and he faces a potent PHI lineup.

One key to winning is finding the holes in the obvious plays. For example, Patrick Corbin has a new pitch. He threw the cutter 25% of the time in his first start and it performed well. Perhaps the seasoned lefty can tame the PHI offense whose two best hitters are lefties. The opposite side of that game has some capable WAS bats facing Aaron Nola whose FB is not quite where it should be for an “ace” pitcher. KC features three players in the top 25 of wRC+ so far. Their top 4 players are simply crushing the baseball according to statcast data. Isolate some stacks using your favorite players below and let’s get rich!

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Freddy Peralta, SP: $9,300 – Anyway you analyze it, Peralta has some of the most unhittable stuff in the game. His iVB (seriously, what stat will they come up with next?!) has batters swinging below pitches and his breakers are filthy. Pitching at home and facing the highest K% lineup puts Peralta firmly in play for top scoring pitcher of the day.

Brady Singer, SP: $8,700 – The White Sox lineup has not been good and likely will continue to hover around the bottom of the league with the likes of the A’s. They strike out a lot. As you can tell, this is less of an investment in Singer as it is his opponent. Still, Singer was brilliant in start #1 and there are pitch mix changes that support his success. He is pitching at home and the wind blowing in should help him limit the long ball. I am mostly okay with this play.

Yainer Diaz, C/1B: $4,200 – There are a lot of good C options at the upper ends of the pricing tiers today, but Diaz hits the ball hard and will be hitting in the middle of a potent lineup vs. LHPs. You can take advantage of HOUs lineup through this cheaper play at C and continue riding Diaz’s salary increases before he’s over priced.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 1B: $4,300 – I have to imagine this will be a popular play. CES has the second highest max EV for 1B behind Pete Alonso and a similar EV as other star 1B. He will hit the ball hard vs. Quintana and the likely result will score DFS points. We can hope for some loft to his swings and stack up the other frisky (read SBs) Reds around him.

Emmanuel Valdez, 2B: $3,400 – It looks like I might be stacking some Red Sox tonight. This play is largely a result of Griffin Canning’s velo drop in his first start, but Valdez has the power to take advantage of a pitcher who can’t get swings and misses. He has a decent HH% and puts the ball in the air, giving you a chance at a cheap HR.

Austin Riley, 3B: $5,700 – Stack up the Braves any which way you want, they are a top target on tonight’s slate. Riley stands out because he excels vs. LHPs and is the power bat in the middle of that potent lineup. He could easily be a “had to have him” type of guy in tonight’s contests. I would almost certainly stack him with some other Braves if going this direction.

CJ Abrams, SS: $4,800 – The breakout rookie from last year is starting hot with 2 HRs and 3SBs already. In a Friday night matchup vs. a shaky Aaron Nola, he could wreak havoc on the base paths and take advantage of a misplaced Nola FB. Abrams is priced just right in this one.

Wyatt Langford, OF: $4,300 – If we played DFS contests with scoring built for underlying metrics, Langford would stand tall in this pricing tier. We don’t, but we will finally get a breakout game sometime soon based on his hard hit data and control of the strike zone. He has hit safely in 5 of 6 and this should be a high scoring game for both teams.

O’Neill, Duran, Yoshida OF: $4,500 avg – You mean I can’t just do whatever I want in these columns…? The BOS outfield is looking good and they are facing Griffin Canning who could not get batters to swing and miss with his reduced velocity in his first start. I’m willing to stack these guys up and hope for another stinker from Canning because they can take advantage and they will be low owned.

I’m Only Happy When It Rains

There is nothing too concerning from a DFS perspective. It’s gonna be a day for pitchers at Wrigley (I don’t envy the fans today) and most of the wind blowing out is going to be mitigated by low temps. I would check the winds in LA as it looks like they could aid balls hit out to right field.

Doing Lines In Vegas

The Vegas lines always look fair to me, but I would be willing to take the over in the HOU-TEX game. HOU is built to take on lefty starters and TEXs potent offense could really get going in this game, at least if they want to keep up. The Red Sox should not be underdogs to the LAA, especially if the wind is really going to be blowing out to left field in that game. Finally, I could see a bet on WAS as a team paying off. There are a lot of unknowns in that game as far as I’m concerned.