CJ Abrams, one of the popular middle infield sleepers entering the year, has been worth his draft day ADP and more. He’s been a catalyst for many teams in roto leagues in particular since July with a .314 average, 19 steals in 34 games (reminiscent of Jon Berti’s hot stretch last year), and is developing into one of the few bright spots in what has been a rough few years for the Nationals. As Abrams looks to keep his current pace up, should rank among the top 100 players in 2024.
As the Nationals have nothing to play for except for personal stats at the moment, looking under the hood, what’s the cause of Abrams’ recent surge in fantasy value? In 2022 Abrams had roughly a half-season’s worth of at-bats and was looking like a speed-only, Dee-Gordon-esque, 5 homer player at best. Flash forward to 2023, Abrams’s barrel rate has jumped from 2.1% to, 7%, his xBA of .252 is in line with his actual .257 average, his HardHit% and walk metrics are all ticking up (keeping in mind Abrams is only 22 and far from a finished product). Aside from the gaudy steals total at this point in the season and solid contact numbers, the power has started to click for Abrams (11 in 397 at-bats). Like Maikel Garcia (23 years old himself), Abrams hasn’t hit his physical peak yet, so we should definitely be seeing Abrams grow into some more power and strength in the years ahead. What looked to be single-digit power, now could potentially be 18-20 in a best-case scenario. The peak 20/50 dream season is still alive.
Abrams has been thriving in the leadoff role over the past month, despite walking at a 4.4% clip for the year (at a quick glance, a +.350 BABIP will mask many plate discipline issues), but the Nationals really don’t have anyone else competing with Abrams for the leadoff spot, as Lane Thomas has been dropped to the middle of the Nats order.
Overall, Abrams’ player development looks to be trending upward: his 80-grade speed will stick around for a while barring disaster, and his contact and power skills are steadily improving. My main concern with Abrams’ is the ability to hit fastballs (-11 run value in 2023), and would like to see his walk rate up a few more ticks. If CJ makes those improvements, which I’m confident he should, will be the difference between a top 100 and a top 50 fantasy player in 2024 and beyond. Here’s what else I saw around the league:
Matt McLain – Reds: Another guy who I expect to be around the top 100 for next year, McLain’s sort of flown under the radar (Elly-mania will do that) with 12 homers, 9 SB’s, .295 average, and .362 OBP in just over 300 at-bats. The gaudy hard-hit numbers and 9.9 barrel rate are currently masking his 28.2% K rate. Mr. Prorater loves this guy for 2024!
Ozzie Albies – Braves: Had a tremendous doubleheader Saturday, going 5/9 with 4 runs, 2 homers, 8 RBI and 2 steals. Albies has been one of, if not the most valuable second basemen drafted and as we’ve seen the past few years (28 homers, 90 RBI on the year), the Braves lineup is a great place to be in, even if you bat 9th (looking at you Michael Harris II).
Luis Arraez – Marlins: The .400 dream has been over for some time now, after batting only .308 the past month, but you have to be happy with the 54 RBI, .365 average, and .409 OBP on the year.
Jonathan India – Reds: Shut down for two weeks as he’s out with an ailing left foot. A few more setbacks and India will be tagged with the injury-prone “good when healthy” “high risk, high reward” label if he hasn’t already.
Marcus Semien – Rangers: Having a weird season. On the surface, things look great: 94/18/72/10/.280/.350, best K% of his career at 13.2%. Under the hood, average exit velo, max exit velo, HardHit% at 34% or lower. Like the Braves lineup, the Rangers lineup is a great place to accrue counting stats, but looking at 2024 and beyond, I’d say the warning signs are there, especially considering Semien is 32 and he’ll likely stop running as much down the line.
Gleyber Torres – Yankees: The rock the Yankees have desperately needed, earning a 64/18/49/9/.271/.346 slash line. If the Yanks were at full health, which hasn’t happened in quite some time, those counting stats would be more inflated, especially in the RBI department. Otherwise, his skills look the same to me. At one time, it seemed like Torres was expendable and looked be flipped for some pitching help. As the Yankees trot out Jake Bauers, Billy McKinney, and IKF in their daily lineup, the Yanks need Gleyber in a premium lineup spot more than ever.
Have a great week!
