There’s so many pitchers to choose form after the top 100 overall that it’s slightly nuts. Clearly, I don’t have time to go over all of them. [pushes finger on earbud] I’m being I told I do have time, when I go over my rankings, which start on Monday, the 20th, or they’re already available on the Patreon for ten smackers. Holy schnikes! Let’s freakin’ go! [does a well-choreographed dance, ends in a split] Someone help me up. Seriously, not joking, I can’t feel my leg. So, about Brandon Pfaadt, his numbers are so crazy we’re gonna need to take a nap before starting. [shuts eyes, five seconds later, opens eyes and claps hands] Let’s go! Love me a power nap, almost as much as Pfaadt stats: 9.2 K/9, 2.1 BB/9. Okay, absolutely. Everything that’s happening there. Nothing else to see really. Let’s call it a wrap, put some pita around it and eat up! [intern whispers in ear] Nah, I don’t think I want to mention his ERA. No, I am absolutely not mentioning his 5.06 ERA in 277 2/3 career innings. Never happening. Hey, intern, I literally just fired you for mentioning it and trying to trick me into saying it aloud so the readers could hear me. Pack your stuff in a bandana, tie it to a stick and jump on a train without paying because I just saw the movie, Blitz–Crap, you’re reading this aren’t you? So, what can we expect from Brandon Pfaadt for 2025 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
Brandon Pfaadt’s 5.06 ERA in 277 2/3 career innings is so funny. To think that’s a sleeper. Last year, his ERA was 4.71. Ha, improvement! It gets even more hilarious. His September ERA was 7. That’s not a typo. It’s not 5.07 and, like a guido losing his Mustang in a parking lot, I did not forgot the 5.0. That is 7.00. Wait, it was better in August, he had an ERA of 6.04! Honestly, this is the most hilarious post I could’ve ever finished the fantasy baseball sleepers with. Was Kyle Hendricks ranked too high to be a sleeper? Pfaadt’s 2nd half ERA was 5.93 in 68 1/3 IP! That’s Pfaacking terrible. So, there is a reason why he’s being drafted around 200th overall, but there’s also reason why we’re here.
Not sure I’ve seen someone as unlucky of Brandon Pfaadt, and everything below the hood took metaphorical huge steps forward, while being masked by terrible ERAs. He had the 18th best K-BB% last year and there’s zero guys in the top 20 who are of no interest, though Nick Pivetta does tend to star in The Rise of the Ulcers. There’s problems with xFIP, but Pfaadt was 25th best in the league, tied with George Kirby. The big problem with xFIP is the HR/9. It assumes a guy should give up less (or more) homers, as if they’re not responsible for allowing ding-dongs. I don’t love that, but there is something to: Guy with excellent command should give up less homers because you’d think they’d know how to pinpoint their pitches to avoid the dongers. Let’s just say conceptually a guy who gives up no walks, has huge prospect pedigree, can induce a lot of Ks and was unlucky reads to me like a recipe for success:
1 tbs of Command
1 cup of Ks–
Okay, you get my point. Last year his ground balls went way up, not literally, and his fly balls came down, literally, so, again, unless he’s being hit incredibly hard, there’s something not adding up. Was he hit hard? He was the 31st best at limiting Hard Contact. He was 10th worst for Medium Contact, and 43rd for Line Drive Rate, so there’s some concern. I think this is a sequencing issue.
Different sites judge pitches differently (which is dumb, but for another day). Brandon Pfaadt’s sweeper aka slider is excellent. Only one pitcher throws it more (Houck), but look at this goofiness:
Brandon Pfaadt’s Sweeper has a .215 BAA, an xBA of .200 (!), only hit 31.6% of the time “Hard” and a 36.2% Whiff. Its run value is -10! I’m sorry, what? (Run Value Definition: The run impact of an event based on the runners on base, outs, ball and strike count.) That wasn’t what I was what’ing! (Sorry.) I sorted by all pitches Whiff% and the closet to his 36.2 and a -10 Run Value was Matt Waldron’s knuckleball. Come on. This is nuts. .260 BABIP on a sweeper, which is high in itself. Just think about it logically, how could a guy with that good of a Whiff% get rocked like that without insane bad luck? That will right itself.
To recap before we’re out of here: Brandon Pfaadt is in his third year and has been better each year. He was unlucky last year with one of the best pitches that produced nothing. To highlight what can be: In September, when he had that 7.00 ERA, he also had a start vs. the Brewers of 7 IP, 0 ER, 12 Ks and zero walks. Another start of 5 2/3 IP, 10 Ks (2 BBs), another of 5 1/3 IP, 9 Ks (1 BB). This is getting granular, but one start of 1 2/3 IP, 8 ER, ruined his September. Pfaadt’s breakout is in plain sight and being obscured by so much unlucky, random stats that should be ignored. Do not ignore a guy who could be on the verge of one of the biggest breakouts in baseball. For 2025, I’ll give Brandon Pfaadt projections of 12-7/3.72/1.14/191 in 187 IP with a chance for much more.
