If you thought this was a post on Aaron Judge, I don’t blame you. We here at Razzball always like to word play with the titles, but today I’m taking it next level by bringing it back to the literal. Got it? Yeah, me neither. Anyways, society is always espousing that we not judge a book by its cover. Sage advice and, since I’m a part of society, I shall pat myself on the back. In the early days of man’s existence, instantaneous judgements needed to be formulated for survival. Is that furry animal with big teeth friend or foe? As time progressed, life got more complicated. Are those breasts real or fake? Is it you or me? Taste great or less filling? No longer was life simply about eating or being eaten. Mankind has reached a certain level of consciousness to tap into the brain power that has allowed us to manipulate and/or be manipulated. Translation: not everything is what it seems. For this week’s edition of Bear or Bull, I will look at Chris Owings and Logan Morrison, two players at opposite ends of the production spectrum to begin the season. A 2-for-1 special! Who’s better than me??!! Don’t answer that.
DISCLAIMER: IT’S BEEN 1 1/2 WEEKS!!!!
Chris Owings has been on a tear to begin the season. In 26 at-bats, Owings has a .423/.483/.615 triple slash with 1 home run, 8 runs scored, 6 RBI, and 1 stolen base. He’s appeared in every game, although 3 of the 9 were of the pinch-hit variety. Owings also has multi-positional eligibility (SS/2B/OF) and has started games at both second base and right field. Preseason ADP was 260. Now, he’s the 19th overall player according to ESPN and has seen his ownership percentage spike up 40.6% to 55.9%. Hot googly moogly. Now, the things that make you go hmmmmm. The strikeout rate is 31% and walk rate is 10.3%. Career averages are 22.1% and 4.8% respectively. The BABIP is .625!!! Uhhhh, yeah. The plate discipline and batted ball profile numbers are where things get a little interesting. Owings is chasing only 27% of pitches outside the strike zone this season. His career average is 37.4% He’s swinging at pitches less in general (41% vs 52.2% career average). In addition, he’s seeing fewer pitches in the strike zone (39.3% vs 46.2% career average) and only 55% of first ball strikes (career average of 65.3%). As for the batted ball profile, the one number that jumped out at me was the 58.8% pull percentage. The GB/FB rate is also at a career-high of 2.00 vs 1.39 career average. My interpretation of the numbers? It looks like he’s changed his approach. Sitting on anything hard inside and trying to make the chicks happy. The increased strikeout rate would correspond with selling out for power, while the increased walk rate would show that he’s locked into a certain area and laying off everything else. The higher ground ball rate would make sense with this new approach, as he’ll be rolling over anything soft and outside. What’s it all mean going forward? I think it’s safe to say that the BABIP will be coming back down….and by a signficant amount. Pitchers are going to start attacking him differently because…that’s what they do. Owings has changed, now pitchers are going to adjust. Looking at the heatmaps on Fangraphs.com, it looks like pitchers have been trying to pound him inside low with the hard stuff, and go soft low and away. It wouldn’t surprise me if pitchers start going hard away and challenging him more early in the count and try getting the heat up near his hands. I’m curious to see the adjustments that pitchers make. Thirdly, much has been made of the Humidor in Chase Field, but we haven’t seen the full effects of it yet. At least that is my best guess. Once the roof closes on a more consistent basis and the AC gets turned on, the Humidor should bask in all its glory. Finally, Steven Souza is set to return in a week so he won’t be getting those starts in right field. Owings will still maintain value due to his multi-position eligibility, and he did go 12/12 last season, but don’t expect a breakout.
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As hot as Chris Owings has been, Logan Morrison has been just as cold. .053/.182/.105 triple slash with 1 hit, 1 run scored, and 1 RBI in 19 at-bats. LoMo no go. He had a preseason ADP of 202 and has been dropped by 20% of owners in ESPN leagues to bring his ownership level to 44.2%. So, why am I writing about a dude that has one hit on the season and sits against lefties? 38 dongs is why, which is what he hit last season with the Rays. Let’s dig a little deeper into things, shall we? 9.1% walk rate is down from the 10.5% career rate, but that’s nothing too egregious. The 22.7% strikeout rate is higher than the 19.2% career rate, but LoMo was in the 22-24% range his two years in Tampa. The BABIP is .071. Obviously, when you have 1 hit on the season, that number is going to be low. The hard hit rate is at a paltry 14.3 rate while the line drive rate is at 7.1%. His career numbers are 32.6% and 19.5% respectively. The swinging strike rate is at 18.8%! Career is 8.6%. Any wonder that the overall contact rates are way down from career norms? The plate discipline numbers are eye opening. 37.3% O-Swing% and 54.1% Swing%. Career numbers are 27% and 43.8% respectively. I could be wrong, but I see a guy, on a new team, that’s pressing. He did sign a one-year contract with the Twins, so if he wants to get another contract at 30 years old, he better show that the 38 home run season from last year was no fluke. I’m inclined to believe that LoMo turns it around at some point. As per the DISCLAIMER up top, it’s been 1 1/2 weeks! More than that, though, he bats fifth in the Twins order and has 30 home run potential. I’m good with that, especially if he’s for free off the wire. Sure, there’s a chance that he’s finished and donezo, but he’s free with dongs of upside.
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