Carlos Correa is a star. A heavenly body. Out of this world. I know what you must be thinking. No, I don’t have an unhealthy obsession with him. It just says so right on his uniform. According to the internet (so it must be true), the term astro is defined as a prefix that means “star,” “celestial body,” or “outer space.” The city of Houston decided to make a noun out of this prefix and call their team the Astros in order to have a team full of “stars.” Egomaniacs! In Correa’s case though, this term would seem to be appropriate. At 17 years old, he was the #1 overall pick in the 2012 MLB Draft. Last season, just three years after being drafted out of high school, he made his MLB debut. In his ninth MLB game, Correa became the second youngest player in the last century to steal three bases in a single game (trailing Rickey Henderson by 21 days). He set a franchise record by hitting 12 homers in his first 46 games. He had more homers (13) through his first 50 games than any other shortstop in MLB history. Power, speed, plate discipline, solid defense. Correa looked like the total package. His 22 homers, 14 steals, and .279/.345/.512 slash line in his first 99 games had fantasy owners dreaming of a .300/30/30 encore. The A-Rod comps started to get circulated around various fantasy circles. Correa quickly became a consensus first round pick in 2016 fantasy drafts. Just 21 years old, and all of the skills in the world. Upside through the roof. So what’s the problem?
A player’s second season is usually one filled with adjustments, especially for one as young and inexperienced as Correa. In his first two games against the Yankees this year, he came out of the gates smokin’ hot (5/9 with 3 homers and 2 steals for a 2.111 OPS). In his next 60 games (April 7th – June 14th) however, Correa managed just a .240/.338/.371 triple slash with 5 homers and 6 steals. Ouch. That’s Brad Miller kind of production. He’s rebounded nicely over his last seven games though (.360/.484/.800). Is Correa’s recent surge a sign of things to come or a good sell-high opportunity for his owners?
Let’s take a look at Correa’s profile to determine what type of production can be expected from him during the remainder of the 2016 season:
• He’s walking at an elite rate. This is one of the things that immediately jumped out to me about Correa. Plate discipline is something that usually improves with age and experience, which is what makes Correa’s 12.2% BB% (19th highest in MLB; +2.9% from 2015) especially impressive. Of the 18 qualified players with higher walk rates than Correa, only Bryce Harper is under 24 years of age, and Harper turns 24 this October. Speaking of plate discipline, it’s worth noting that…
• His strikeouts are up, but he’s swinging at fewer pitches outside of the strike zone. Correa’s 24.1% K% is up 6% from his rookie season, but his 27.7% O-Swing% is down 3.8% and is among the best rates in MLB. These statistics indicate (along with his elevated walk rate) that Correa is not only seeing more pitches on a regular basis, but his pitch recognition is improving dramatically. As far as the higher K-rate goes, it’s still lower than those of established studs such as Andrew McCutchen, Joey Votto, and Freddie Freeman. Another encouraging sign is that…
• His quality of contact continues to improve. Correa’s 39.5% Hard% is currently the 19th highest rate in MLB among 170 qualifiers, and represents a 6.6% improvement over last season. His 14.2% Soft% and 2.0% IFFB% are among the lowest rates in baseball as well. All of this is good news, especially when considering that…
• He’s currently on a 26 homer, 19 steal full season pace. Despite those 60 games of mediocrity from early April through mid June (or, uh, the majority of the season to date), Correa is on a 162 game 78/26/94/19/.262 pace. Only three players hit 25 homers and stole 20 bases in 2015 – Manny Machado, Paul Goldschmidt, and Ryan Braun. In 2014, only Todd Frazier accomplished that rare feat. Correa is still on track to finish in that ballpark after “struggling” for most of this season.
Bottom line: In the interest of full disclosure, I was not very high on Correa coming into the 2016 season. At least, not quite as high as others were for fantasy purposes. Expecting a 21 year old player with one season’s worth of experience above AA ball to produce at an elite level across a full MLB season seemed like a longshot to me, even when factoring in Correa’s immense talent. While some others have inexplicably jumped off of his bandwagon, I’ve been extremely impressed with what Correa has accomplished in a transition year for him. His body type, power/speed combo, and plate discipline definitely make those young A-Rod comparisons seem appropriate, and I see some similarities to Machado as well. In a keeper/dynasty league, you’re probably going to have to pay through the nose, but in a redraft league, I’d strongly suggest to buy if his owner has soured on him even a little bit.
Final Verdict:
