Cincinnati Reds first baseman Joey Votto has been a model of consistency throughout the majority of his MLB career. This has been especially true in terms of his disciplined approach at the plate. From 2012 to 2015, he led MLB in walk rate (18.8%) by a comfortable margin and was one of only two qualified players (A.J. Ellis being the other) with an O-Swing% under 20%. Simply put, if a pitch was out of the strike zone, Votto rarely swung at it. This impressive strike zone awareness resulted in him being one of only four players (including Miguel Cabrera, Mike Trout, and Paul Goldschmidt) to produce a .300+ batting average as well as a .400+ on base percentage during that span. This season, however, his walk (13.9%) and strikeout (26.6%) rates have regressed, hurting his usually stellar batting average (.230) and OBP (.348) in the process. The man with the precise, almost robotic approach at the plate is suddenly about as effective as R.O.B. was for the 8 bit NES back in the day. Are the 32-year-old’s skills starting to erode? Is it time to say sayonara to Mr. Votto?
Let’s take a look at Votto’s profile to see what, if anything, has changed for him this season. Here are a few observations:
• He’s hitting the ball on the ground more often. Votto’s current 46.1 GB% would be a new career high, and that rate represents a 3.9% increase from last season. Though that’s generally something that could be construed as a red flag for an aging slugger, that’s not necessarily the end of the world. Nelson Cruz hit 44 homers with a similar ground ball rate last season. Carlos Gonzalez has posted a GB rate lower than Votto’s current rate just once since 2011. Ryan Braun hasn’t had a rate that low since 2012. The slightly higher ground ball rate is unlikely to affect Votto significantly, especially since it appears as though…
• His power has remained intact. Votto’s average fly ball distance this season (314.05 ft) is currently the 7th highest in MLB and represents an 11.79 ft increase over last year’s mark. His .216 ISO is nearly in line with his career rate (.223) as well. Another encouraging sign is that…
• He’s hitting the ball with authority. Votto’s current 44.1% Hard% is the second highest hard hit percentage in MLB (behind David Ortiz) and would represent a new career high for him by a good margin. It stands to reason, then, that a big reason for his drop in batting average this season (other than the higher K-rate) is due to the fact that…
• His current BABIP is 77 points below his career average. If luck were a lady, Votto’s would be Rosie O’Donnell with a bad case of acne. Despite his aforementioned hard contact rate as well as his usual lack of pop-ups (0.0% IFFB%) and stellar line drive percentage (24.1%), Votto’s current BABIP (.277) is well under his career average (.354) and nearly a hundred points lower than it was last season (.371). Luck might be starting to turn in his favor, however, as…
• He’s returned to form recently. Over the last two weeks, Votto has produced the following line (54 PA): 12 runs, 5 home runs, 11 RBI, 3 steals, .313/.389/.750 BA/OBP/SLG. His .345 BABIP over this span has been more in line with his career average in that category. The three steals indicate that he’s healthy, which has been an issue for him at times in recent years.
Bottom line: It would be easy to write off an aging slugger with previous durability issues when he’s off to a slow start, especially on a rebuilding team. By late July, Jay Bruce and perhaps even Brandon Phillips might no longer be teammates of Votto’s, which would place more of the offensive load onto his shoulders and could hurt his counting stats in the process. However, Votto’s skills appear to be intact. His plate discipline is very similar to his monster 2015 season, and he’s driving the ball to all fields. The recent steals show that his legs are feeling good too, which is a positive sign for a player who’s had knee issues in the past. In redraft leagues, he looks like a solid trade target.
Final Verdict:
