Marcell Ozuna is a powerful human being who crushes baseballs for a living. Marcel the Monkey Forecasting System was developed by Tom Tiger. What does each entity have to do with the other? Not a whole lot other than the fact that they share the same first name. And I just wanted to cram as much wildlife as possible into this post. Heck, whenever a Marlin hits a home run in Miami, you get to see this, which makes me think that Nicholas Cage played a key role in designing Crayola Canyon. Which I’m totally fine with. Who doesn’t love dolphins anyway?
But back to Ozuna. He made a long journey from Milan to Minsk. Oh wait, that’s Rochelle, Rochelle and not Marcell, Marcell. Well, the Dominican Republic makes for a long journey too. He tore through the low minors and even led the Florida State league in home runs, runs scored, RBIs, and total bases in 2012. Fast forward past his major league debut in April 2013 and subsequent wrist injury that season which ended his year prematurely, and you see what a healthy Ozuna was capable of in 2014. Here’s a player who was drafted as an OF3 (ESPN ADP of 112.5; NFBC ADP of 129.91) just a few short weeks ago for one main reason: power. Ozuna crush baseball. His average fly ball distance of 291.52 feet was the 44th highest mark among all qualified MLB hitters last season, and his 23 home runs (tied for 30th most in MLB) and .186 ISO (tied for 31st highest) placed him in elite company as well. At 24 years of age, Ozuna is just entering his prime years. His arrow is clearly pointed upward, and by that, I’m referring to his career trajectory. Get your mind out of the gutter!
Just how good is Ozuna and which player(s) can he be reasonably compared to from a fantasy perspective? Sounds like it’s time for a good old fashioned player comp, and I just so happen to have one. Let’s take a look at Ozuna’s numbers from last season and see how they stack up against a mystery player to be named later. We’ll call him Guy Incognito for now.
Table #1 features most of the standard scoring categories in 5×5 roto leagues (along with a few others of interest):
| Name | PA | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guy Incognito | 482 | 16 | 48 | 61 | 0 | 0.279 | 0.336 | 0.475 | 0.355 | 133 |
| Marcell Ozuna | 612 | 23 | 72 | 85 | 3 | 0.269 | 0.317 | 0.455 | 0.338 | 114 |
Guy Incognito lags behind Ozuna in counting stats (partially due to having 130 less PA), but is actually superior to Ozuna in terms of the triple slash categories and overall effectiveness when on the field, if wOBA and wRC+ are factored in.
Table #2 features some key plate discipline and batted ball results:
| Name | BB% | K% | SwStr% | ISO | BABIP | LD% | GB% | FB% | IFFB% | HR/FB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guy Incognito | 6.40% | 25.10% | 13.00% | 0.196 | 0.348 | 21.80% | 45.20% | 33.00% | 7.50% | 15.10% |
| Marcell Ozuna | 6.70% | 26.80% | 13.70% | 0.186 | 0.337 | 17.50% | 48.60% | 33.80% | 7.30% | 16.80% |
As you can see, both of these players have some plate discipline issues, but possess above average power. Both feature a higher percentage of batted balls on the ground than you’d like to see from a power hitter. But all-in-all, these results look fairly similar.
So who is this Guy Incognito? It’s none other than Ozuna’s new teammate Michael Morse. Last season, Ozuna was essentially Morse with more plate appearances and better counting stats. While Morse is no slouch at the plate, that’s probably not the type of comp that you were hoping to see if you’re an Ozuna owner. The gap in counting stats is likely to shrink between the two as well if Morse continues to hit cleanup while Ozuna resides in the 6th slot.
A big concern regarding Ozuna is his tendency to hit a high percentage of ground balls. In 2014, only two other players produced a GB% as high or higher than Ozuna’s and managed to produce an ISO of at least .170 (considered to be above average): Yasiel Puig and Ian Desmond, who only managed to hit 40 home runs combined. Good company to be in, but those players don’t derive the majority of their fantasy value from power production like Ozuna does.
There’s no question that Ozuna checks off a lot of boxes in the “pro” column – young player, elite raw power, more talent surrounding him this season. There are a few cons to consider as well – GB%, K%, lack of stolen bases, poor lineup positioning, plays half of his games in an extreme pitcher’s park. While it’s reasonable to expect Ozuna to produce a similar batting line in 2015 as he did last season (72/23/85/3/.269), any improvement upon those numbers appears to be unlikely.
Final Verdict:
