While he hasn’t ever been the end all, be all fantasy shortstop, Elvis Andrus is putting it together this year. He has gone from a Ron Popiel special at SS to a must own, and by own I mean a trade for candidate. Because I am not sure people really realize how well he is comparatively to some of the leagues elite shortstops with bigger names and bigger draft day price tags. Across the five counting stats that matter for most leagues, and RCL’s are no different. this is where he ranks among qualified two-and-a-halvers. He sits 5th in batting average (.305), 5th in Homers (7), 5th in runs (34), 3rd in RBI (32) and since this is the SAGNOF post, 2nd in steals with 14. It is interesting to compare yesterday and this year. He has more steals at this point in the season than Segura did, and in case you were wondering all counting stats across the board are in King Creole’s favor, but at a 80 pick reduction in price from draft day. Value plays are what makes the fantasy champ. If Andrus, through one third of the season, can steal 14, score 34, and knock in 32 for a Rangers team that has yet to really hit their stride offensively… Why is he not a trade target for someone who may know (that is now you) to someone who thinks that Andrus is like watching paint dry and boring? His name to me in trade talks would be the most exciting, unless you were really paying attention to things. Hell, look at what Zack Cozart is doing, and that is not even a joke. So enjoy this week’s tidbits and fantasy snares that may help you on the waivers or taking advantage of some situations this week. Cheers!
Please, blog, may I have some more?
The season to date leader in holds heads to the DL and one of the better bullpens in baseball is in a tailspin… not so fast! The Rockies have reliable arms that can cement games just as well as Adam Ottavino has done for the year. With the likes of wily veterans in Mike Dunn, Chris Rusin, and even a little smattering of Jake McGee, the sedimentary bunch is going to attempt to hold down the fort. The comforting thing is that the Rockies lead MLB in holds as a pen, least amount of blown saves and have the most games pitching with a lead with 99 total. The scary thing with the shoulder injury is that Ottavino is a stash, or a dash, and replace with new military holds parts made from recycled relievers. Wait a week, see if the 10-day DL stint is a pain in the tuther end, and I can see if you need the space in Holds leagues, the move make sense. I would most likely grab Dunn, Rusin, and McGee in that order, as the setup game in front of the Dutch Master is going to be pieced together differently than what we saw so far. No need to panic though, there are tons of saves in the 6-8 innings to go around. Speaking of which, let’s see what is going down in the neighborhood of hold-dom…
Please, blog, may I have some more?The stolen base market is put into two categories: Billy Hamilton and basically everyone else. Capitalizing on the “everyone else” is the problem. The dreaded ebb and flow theory of SAGNOF is a beer served at room temperature. Yeah, at its core, it is still a beer, and yes some beer is served at room temperature. I know there will be some beer snobs that chime in and say “blah, blah this about micro brews and room temperature”. My response is nothing, you are on ignore. Come hang with me and you will see dudes that know how, like to, and will drink. Ask Prospector Ralph, he knows we can bang. Anyways, grabbing a SAGNOF guy on the waivers is a tumultuous beast. Trying to say that he will steal or he will get on base to actually attempt to steal the base… It’s a crap shoot outside of stolen base wizard Billy H. Even when looking at the usually candidates from the preseason and their potential for stolen bases, they are down. The stolen base as a whole is almost as dead as being in Buffalo Bill’s well. We all drafted Trea Turner for his 50-plus SB potential. To date, he has 11, and is on pace for 44. Charlie Blackmon has gone from 43, to 17 last year, to 4 this year. He has basically turned into a RBI machine and it shows by him being the MLB leader in the category. And don’t get me started on Jean Segura or Jonathan Villar… go trade for Dee Gordon, Billy Hamilton or anyone else in the top-5 and quell all your stolen base woes. Trying to make up on the category but nickle and dime’n is the worst ideas since screen doors on a submarine. In case you think I am pushing pork pies and you don’t wanna listen, here is a fancy chart for catchers to abuse for streaming, and some more SAGNOF tidbits. Cheers!
Please, blog, may I have some more?We all exploit it, and with good reason. The elusive RP/SP eligibility is a sassy beast. She entices you with peripherals and gaudy cheeses, and let’s you fill up starter spots with relievers and vice versa. I mean, if cheese and dual-eligibility don’t draw you in, I don’t know what else to say. As we are basically 45 games into the season for most teams, it is time to reassess the eligibility of some players. Lots of eligibility has been added to a lot of pitchers, and that is a benefit to your fantasy roster. Guys like J.C. Ramirez, Matt Andriese, and Jose Urena all have SP next to their names and on the reflexive, the names of Brad Peacock, Archie Bradley, and Jorge de La Rosa have been on some rosters at some points in the year. So do yourself a favor and scour the waivers in your leagues and recheck the eligibility of some of the players that have some use in some leagues. It is a coveted thing in the preseason, so why not now? Get comfy, it is the closer report for this week! Lot’s of tibits or bittids for you folks battling dyslexia.
Please, blog, may I have some more?What I particularly like about relievers is versatility. The situation in San Diego is the one in particular I want to discuss. We were all lured into the Carter Capps preseason love, and I was on the wagon driving the horses as well, but his injury and the results that we expected aren’t coming as fast as we hoped. He isn’t bowling over anyone in the minors, sporting a 6-plus ERA, and the obnoxious K-rate hasn’t materialized. Now onto the major league roster which isn’t lighting any fires. They are second from the bottom in bullpen ERA, have only 12 holds on the year, and now their closer has hit the skids. He being Brandon Maurer. Enter who I think should, could be the next man up while we wait (forever) for Capps. Brad Hand offers that former starter turned good. I may just call him the Vigilante of holds and possibly saves very soon. He has the K-rate, the BAA and the moxy to do the job… it is just a matter of if SD is ready to pull the trigger on something because Maurer looks cooked. Regardless of his situation moving forward or your league perimeters, Hand is worthy for a spot because of speculation and the K’s that he will produce. This is the bullpen report for this week, so let’s see what’s happening in the setup game and the hold chase…
Please, blog, may I have some more?While it isn’t an exact science, picking on a pitcher for stolen base success is not always an awful strategy. So after the jump, there is a year-to-date chart that shows the propensity for pitcher’s to give up the free base. Like I said, it is never an exact anything, because there are some elite names on this list, and because they are usually good pitchers, their respective OBP against isn’t the shining star of stats to chase. But in theory, chasing dudes for thievery in a non-thievery world is bad folly. Because getting on base is the most important thing next to waking up and reading what Ge has to say. Us bottom feeders who swim the waters in the afternoon gotta be creative and basically be the monkey on the grind box to get your attention. So for those of you with ADHD, welcome back. And here is some weekly insight into the world of steals and saves. Cause you may be a dime piece but saves and steals don’t need a face…
Please, blog, may I have some more?Well, the demise of the active leader in career saves has happened. I can remember the days when he burst on the scene all wide-eyed and rally monkey backed. That, unfortunately, was a dogs age in closer years. Hell, most closers now a days are judged by weeks instead of years. I personally don’t wanna think that he is completely done closing, but I think that he is done closing with the tigers (barring an injury or three). So now it is the Justin Wilson show. He is no stranger to high-leverage spots as he has been a critical holds guy for the past three years. For comparison’s sake, think Tony Watson type of reliever… they even came up together with the Pirates to boot. So the main question is will Wilson continue as such as the Tigers closer? I say why not. Joe Jimenez isn’t ready for prime time yet, or they don’t wanna throw the reigns on him yet. The team has looked mediocre, and sorta old. So alleviating Wilson to the closer role does two things: Makes their best reliever in the bullpen the closer, and it gives him even more trade value should the Tigers fall out of the race and eventually sell of some pieces. Saves are ownable everywhere, and this doesn’t appear to be a committee type thing, so if you own him good on ya. Let’s see what else is going down on Save Street lately…
Please, blog, may I have some more?When I say uptick, I mean that with the slightest bit of tick that any tick can offer. But any positive in a stat that was headed for the extinct list like that Rhino on Tinder is a fantastic thing. Through the first month of the season, there were 28,022 plate appearances across all games in MLB, accounting for 399 stolen bases. This number is better than it was last year, but way off the pace it was in 2015, 2014, and 2012. So for all the hub bub that I created with the stat being a dying entity, and one that really has fallen by the wayside of chasing, there may be a pulse. Albeit a slight one. Steals still don’t have a face, but for stat purposes and chasing, there may be a nose. Maybe half an ear and maybe some dimples. Welcome to the Terrorome of speed and saves. As I drop some stupid goodness and general domineering debauchery that only Smokey and Razzball can deliver… Get comfy, it’s late Tuesday let’s get crazy, but home before the street lights come on.
Please, blog, may I have some more?The biggest question I get regarding the Hold stat is: “How long should I hold onto a stud holds reliever if he isn’t getting the precious stat?” Well, the stat is fluctuation between the sublime and the superfluous. It is usually as explainable as binary calculus. Take, for example, the story of the San Francisco Giants bullpen. They have all the right pieces there to be a successful bullpen. A stud closer and an excellent mix of RH and LH set-up men. Now look closer at the stats. Hunter Strickland is by all intents and purposes the 8th inning guy. He has 12 appearances, 11 of which have come in the 8th inning or later in ball games. He checks every other box for stats, low ERA, K/9 right about where you want it, but the inevitable stat faux pas is he has zero holds. On a team that only has 9 holds collectively, what is going wrong? He isn’t doing anything wrong, he isn’t vexed by a succubus or anything bad. hell I bet he helps old ladies cross the street and then steals their groceries. The simple answer is that the hold stat is an ever flowing team driven ideal. Doesn’t mean I hate it, one bit. i love the secondary save. It just comes out of the blue sometimes and people who sometime deserve to be the beneficiary aren’t that’s all. Hunter will finish the year with his share, but right now in holds leagues he is almost unownable. So look elsewhere for good match-ups, good form in pitching, and the ever important stat with relievers is when did they pitch last. That is the best determinant in acquiring a waiver wire darling. If he pitched yesterday, odds are he won’t today. Be smart as picking reliever for holds is a dumb game, don’t over-think it. Here are some other deets, in the game of set-up…
Please, blog, may I have some more?Last week we covered the other “S” in the “AGNOF”, that being the steals part of the whole acronym. This week it’s saves… sorta. And to be fair, I will touch on some steals guys this week too. But for today, we take a gander at the Saves portion, but for better and more finite terminology, we are going to look at some of the changing needed cuffs that before the year were must owns and have basically faded away from their usefulness so far to date. Now, being a setup relief pitcher is basically like a coupon that eventually expires. The amount of useful relief pitchers from day one to game 162 is small, like the count on both hands kinda small. It is an ever fluxing market where injuries, poor form, and situational involvement change from one game to the next. I wish it weren’t so, but it is. Everyone has a crush on the roster the draft at the beginning of the year, but soon enough a girl from another school moves in and is more prominent or endowed than the previous love fest. That is baseball, and the last 1-2 relieve spots on your team should always be changing, just to maximize the roster spot value. So here are some of the more popular names that have fallen by the way side of rosterability or some guys that may have increasing market value. Get your hands up, so we can slap some cuffs on ya…
Please, blog, may I have some more?
Closer Report: Osuna, Spanish For Panic
April 28, 2017 | Closers, Middle Relievers | 21 Commentsby: Smokey
When struggles happen, the fantasy geeks come out of the wood work with words like “decreased velocity”, “contact rate” and “swing strike percentage”. Now I am no geek, but Roberto Osuna is failing the eye test for me. Control is all over the place and he has zero confidence in his pitches. Yes, if you look at all his secondary pitching attributes, they are all down or up for the worse. First, his velocity is down almost two MPH from last year. Granted, he did miss some time this spring though, so there is a reason to have a letter from his mom to explain that. His z-contact rate (pitches in the strike zone) is off the charts bonkers. It currently sits at 91%. If he had pitched more than five innings to date and qualified, he would have the highest such contact rate in baseball among relievers. That is not a good trait to have as a closer, let alone a mammal. Finally, his swing strike percentage has bottomed out at a cool 10%, which would put him outside the top-100 relievers. And surrounded by names like Tommy Hunter and Michael Ynoa, all staples to a flourishing fantasy team. So what do we do? You cuff him. Jason Grilli is the best name there and Ryan Tepera just got the save in extra innings the other day. All we can hope for from Bobby Osuna is that with some more innings and builds back up to the 9-plus K/9 reliever we drafted as our 1A closer. It isn’t time to panic, but do yourself a favor and cover your bases. Here’s what else is going down in the end game… Cheers!
Please, blog, may I have some more? SAGNOF Report, Week 4: Picking On The Tools Of Ignorance
April 25, 2017 | SAGNOF | 19 Commentsby: Smokey
As I have gone over in the preseason, streaming against a starting pitcher is sometimes a good approach. The problem is that sometimes the blame isn’t completely on the pitcher. This isn’t Looney Tunes and Bugs Bunny isn’t playing all nine positions versus the Gas House Gorillas. So obviously I am referring to the catcher in this scenario. Streaming against a pitcher is all well and good, the bad is that they only pitch once every five days and while it’s fun to rosterbate the high hell out of it, why not take advantage of a starting catcher who usually gets five starts a week? Seems like genius and a better way to try and capitalize on a three game set versus a weak catcher oriented team at gunning down baserunners. So the handy chart below gives us an early glimpse of who we should be taking advantage of with our waiver additions in the steals category. Stay after the chart, because I drop some tidbits of grandeur.
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