I really can’t believe that I let a mediocre Spring Training keep me from drafting Shohei Ohtani with a reasonable pick. I remember last year when the rumors were becoming clearer and it was looking very much like he’d be coming to the Majors in 2018. My first thought was that whoever had the first pick in my league was going to take him. Our league has ten teams and six keepers so the first pick is actually the 61st pick. There was no doubt in my mind that he’d be the first pick. Having won the league I would be stuck with the last pick. No chance I’d get a crack at Shohei. Ohtani wasn’t drafted until the sixth pick of the sixth round. That’s 126th overall. I made SIX picks and didn’t think once about grabbing him. You might want to think twice about taking advice from me.
Please, blog, may I have some more?
Einhorn is Finkel. Finkel is Einhorn. Einhorn is a man! You know who else is a man. Dick Lovelady. Who? Richard Lovelady. If you find yourself wondering who the you-know-what is Richard Lovelady, it’s a perfectly normal response. About two weeks back or so I was watching a random Spring Training game and the guy on the mound for the Royals had on jersey with the name Lovelady across the back. I made a quick voice note using Google Home to remind myself to somehow wedge his name in one of my posts. Today is the day I decided to shoehorn that bad boy in. To be honest, Lovelady sounds like something Hyun-jin Ryu claims to be very good at. Moving on.
Maybe it’s just me, but I need to see George Kontos and Gerrit Cole in the same place at the same time. I astutely put two and two together after seeing Cole’s Fantrax profile picture and Kontos’s CBS profile picture. Perhaps it’s because I was two beers deep and those beers were ironically Tree House Dopplegangers, but any time I get the chance to make two plus two equal five, I jump at the opportunity.
Please, blog, may I have some more?
If you read the title and expected this post to be an anit-MadBum rant, you’ll find your initial impression to be inaccurate. I’ve been a huge Bumgarner fan since he came into the Majors. In fact, I picked him to be this season’s National League Cy Young Award winner in the Razzball experts picks. I had to change that prediction to Stephen Strasburg after the injury for obvious reasons. Last year’s accident was one hundred percent avoidable. As much as I love him, I really hope he did not get paid for his missed time. Shame on him for riding a dirt bike. What’s next, sky diving? This year, however, was just another of the many injuries to a pitcher as a result of an unpredictable comebacker. I’m going to go out on a short limb and say that there was very little, if anything, he could have done to avoid the injury. The incident actually looked quite harmless compared to other comebackers I’ve seen over the years. My favorite was back in 2008 when Papa Grande took a line drive right off the dome piece. I can’t seem to find a good quality video, but he went down like he had been shot. The craziest part is that he ended up staying in the game and getting the save. The messed up part is that when he went down, all I could think about was the ten points I wasn’t going to get for the save. I was pissed. When he ended up staying in the game he became an instant hero.
Please, blog, may I have some more?The part I like the most about making predictions is that it’s my opportunity to get my gut feelings out on paper in way where it won’t jeopardize the success of my fantasy teams. What I mean is that when it comes to draft day I will only act on my instincts and select a certain player when the decision is between two relatively similar players. I am a person of numbers. I spend a shitload of time preparing and fine tuning my estimations and league specific rankings for the exact purpose of sticking to the results on draft day. Winging it just isn’t in my game plan. I play it pretty much by the letter. I do allow for some wiggle room in the later rounds of the draft, but early on and mid-draft there is something a bit robotic about my choices.
However, when it comes to predictions, I am free to toss out any crazy idea I might have. I’d like to preface the upcoming predictions by saying these shouldn’t play more than a coin toss role in your decision making on draft day. What that means is that you shouldn’t use this information to make any serious choices when it’s your turn to pick. However, if it comes down to a toss up between player A and player B, feel free to consider my thoughts when deciding whom to pick. And if that’s not the proper use of “whom”, I don’t care.
Please, blog, may I have some more?
Points Leagues: He Drafts, He Scores!
March 16, 2018 | Fantasy Baseball Points Leagues | 49 Commentsby: malamoney
In the spreadsheet I released this past Sunday there was a column on the “Rankings” tab labeled “Draft Score”. Several of you asked in the comments section what it meant. I thought I’d take this opportunity explain. And while I’m at it, I also thought I’d point out some players that stick out as obvious draft day bargains according to their estimated draft score.
Here is my response to the inquiries about draft score with a few minor modifications.
“FVARz dictates a player’s value compared to the rest of the players. We get there by determining each players’ value above the replacement player at his position. The replacement player is the player you can get off the wire.
A simple example is if you are in a 10-team league and you start only one 2B, then your league really only cares about 10 second basemen. The 11th 2B is considered the replacement 2B. It’s a little more complicated than that in that we probably care about 12 second basemen making the 13th the replacement, but it should give you the idea.
So when choosing between two players, use FVARz. Draft score is just indicator as to whether you are getting good value at the pick. However, I’d always take the player with the higher FVARz regardless of draft score.
Please, blog, may I have some more?
One size fits all is bullshit. I’m 5 foot 7, one hundred forty pounds. You mean to tell me the same shirt that’s supposed to fit a dude 6 foot 4, two-sixty is going to fit me comfortably. What in the world does any of this have to do with fantasy baseball? That’s simple. There is no “one size fits all” set of rankings. Think about a league that penalizes you one point when a hitter strikeouts versus a league that does not. This would greatly affect the value of players such as Joey Gallo and Aaron Judge. How does that single set of rankings you’re using from [insert favorite website] account for this difference? Unfortunately it does not. Every, well nearly every, league is different in the points league universe. The number of different combinations of points per stat category is staggering. But at the end of the day there’s only one that matters to you.
This spreadsheet is an attempt to provide you with the most accurate rankings based on your league specific settings. More about that in a moment. Please note these are not projections. They are estimations.
Please, blog, may I have some more?Last week (or so) I put out my early first base rankings. I completely intended to follow that up with a post for each position, but if I’m being honest, I’m running out of time. With drafts already starting to happen, it’s time I got to it and worked on my official rankings. With that said, I am knee deep in projections, rankings and spreadsheets. I know many of you are patiently waiting for my customizable spreadsheet, but that’s still a couple days away. In the meantime, I have gotten far enough to share my rankings.
Please keep in mind that these rankings are based on a specific scoring system. When my spreadsheet is released it will allow you to enter your league specific scoring system and will generate custom rankings. Because as I’ve said many times before, “all leagues are not created equal”.
Please, blog, may I have some more? Ten Day Disabled Leagues
February 28, 2018 | 2018 Fantasy Baseball Draft | 37 Commentsby: malamoney
With the advent of the 10-day disabled lists the MLB saw an uptick in the number of DL visits in 2017. But the only thing that matters to us fantasy ballers is how it affects our leagues? One initial response I’ve seem from some in my leagues is that we need more DL spots. On the surface it makes sense, but when you dig a bit below the surface, I don’t think it’s really true.
Before I make any official statements let me say that this all depends on the composition of your league’s roster definition. How many players in your active lineup, how many bench players and how many DL spots do you already have. In most cases I don’t think the introduction of the 10-day DL changes things. That is, of course, unless your league’s settings already had you on the fence or you were already in a compromising (under-benched) situation.
In one of my leagues there have been a few requests for an additional DL spot in response to the 10-day DL. When considering how to deal with this, here is how I decided to proceed.
The fairest way to decide if there should be an additional DL spot was to examine the number of DL stints last year as opposed to previous season. A bit below are the number of DL stints for the last three seasons. 15-day DL visits went from 423 (2015) down to 358 (2016) and then up to 495 (2017) when the 15-day became the 10-day. I could not find data prior to 2015. So according to the numbers, there was an average of 393 15-day DL visits in 2015/16. In 2017 there were 102 additional visits. While this sounds like a lot, it’s not. Playing the law of averages game (not an exact science) let’s say all 102 of those additional visits were associated with a player rostered on a team in your league. This is very unlikely, but worst case scenario. Across 12 teams, that would be an additional 8.5 DL visits per team over the course of the season. But let’s be real here, maybe half of those 102 visits are actually relevant. Many were to players that not even rostered. That cuts the number of additional DL stints to about 4 per team over the year. Given this, I couldn’t justify adding another DL spot.
Please, blog, may I have some more? Points Leagues: Early Rankings, 1B
February 23, 2018 | Fantasy Baseball Points Leagues | 35 Commentsby: malamoney
Several of you have asked via email, Twitter and the comments sections of previous posts if I will be generating my spreadsheet again this season. The short answer is, I think so. The follow up question has been, “when?”. To that I say, based on the last two years, it will most likely be some time around the second week of March (or so). Gotta love how I give myself the “or so” escape clause. These things take time. In all seriousness, it really does take a “you know what” load of time to get ready. In the meantime, as part of my preliminary work in generating said projections/rankings, I am publishing my early rankings right now. I thought about starting with shortstop because I’ve yet to see someone start with shortstop, but instead I’ve decided to be boring and kick it off with first base.
Please, blog, may I have some more? Points Leagues: Hold Your Jo(r)ses
February 14, 2018 | Fantasy Baseball Points Leagues | 7 Commentsby: malamoney
It appears there is a revolution that is gaining momentum within the fantasy baseball community that is advocating selecting Jose Altuve with the first pick over Mike Trout. I’m here to say hold your horses. Or perhaps more specifically, hold your Jorses. If you can’t figure out what I’m trying to do with that word “jorses” I’ll explain it for you. The “j” should sound like an “h” as is done when speaking Spanish. If you remove the “r” you are left with “joses”, which refers to Jose Altuve. I’m guessing since I had to explain it, it probably wasn’t the most clever play of words. Deal with it.
Let’s take a look at the points before we rush to any official judgement…
Please, blog, may I have some more? Points Leagues: Stop, Mock and Roll
February 2, 2018 | 2018 Fantasy Baseball Draft, Fantasy Baseball Points Leagues | 44 Commentsby: malamoney
It’s only January (at least at the time I started writing this) and I’ve already participated in two mock drafts for the 2018 fantasy baseball season. To say I’m excited for the next few months would be an understatement. To say my sun dial was pointing at high noon might be a bit much, but when have I shied away from saying something unnecessary? Halloween and draft season are my favorite times of the year. Now while I prefer an auction to a draft, I still take great pleasure in selecting a team according to snake draft rules. Especially when it doesn’t officially count.
Over the last three years only one batter has averaged more fantasy points per season than Nolan Arenado. That player is Paul Goldschmidt, who has averaged 599.5 points. Arenado’s average is 592. These averages will vary depending on your league’s scoring system, but for the most part, the ordering of players should remain mostly the same. When it was my turn to make my first pick at the four spot, Mike Trout, Jose Altuve and Mr. Goldschmidt were already gone. This left me with what I feel was the obvious choice of Arenado. Quite honestly I’m almost inclined to say that given his age, he’s the better pick over Goldschmidt. Did I really just say that?
Please, blog, may I have some more?Alex Reyes is the guy that’s going to be the difference maker on my points league teams this season. Well, except in any league where any of my opponents read this post. If I’m thinking outside of my “points league box”, he has the potential to make a difference in all fantasy formats this season. I see him as a mid-season sleeper that’s going to take up a roster spot for at least one or two before you have a chance to see if holding him will pay any dividends. This is a risk I am willing to take, and is one I’m recommending to the rest of you.
Please, blog, may I have some more?