As we approach the end of April, we’ve played about a month of games and we’ve seen the typical hot and cold starts out of the gate. Some breakouts are expected but as always, accompanied by some unexpected quick starts from surprising places. Here we go:
Luis Arraez – Marlins: Leading MLB in batting average (as was to be expected) with a .444 batting average and hit the Marlins first cycle. He seems to love hitting at Marlins Park (not many players can say that) and so far is barreling the ball up with more regularity than he has previously shown in his career. While we can count on Arraez remaining one of the league leaders in batting average, I’m still betting we see a slight uptick in homers this season. The Arraez/Lopez trade is looking like a win-win.
Fernando Tatis Jr. – Padres: Back from his PED suspension after tearing up the Minor leagues during his stint leading up to his return to the Padres. He wasn’t going to keep hitting .500, but give him a few more games to knock the rust off. He’s already hit a dinger and a few balls +100MPH. He’ll be just fine.
Gunnar Henderson – Orioles: Enduring a rough rookie season in the early going with a 13/1/3/.193/.370 slash thus far. He’s been dropped to as far as 8th in the Orioles lineup and has been striking out 30.% of the time, but the OBP is good to see. Looking under the hood, he’s hitting the ball hard when he does make contact and has excellent speed. In Gunnar’s case, I’d remain patient if I owned him. If I didn’t own him, I’d look to see if I could buy-low.
Miguel Vargas – Dodgers: Similar situation to Gunnar, as his season-long numbers to date don’t look great at face value, but a deeper dive indicates Vargas has elite plate discipline and has an xBA of .270+. Once Vargas and Henderson make a couple adjustments, we’ll be forgetting about the early slumps.
Trea Turner – Phillies: Off to a good start for his new club, slashing 15/1/6/.295/.343/4. His K% has jumped up to 23.5% in the early going after stabilizing around 18% for his career. Seems like he’s pressing a bit with the $300M contract and new club, but something to keep an eye on moving forward.
Bryson Stott – Phillies: Trea’s middle infield mate has shown tremendous growth this season and has seen some time in the Phillies leadoff spot, batting 6/1/7/.344/.365/3. Looks like an early breakout at first glance, but has received a ton of BABIP fortune and is only walking at a 3.1% clip. As the BABIP normalizes and his average tumbles, he’ll still be valuable, as the Phillies lineup is a great place to be in, especially as Bryce Harper looks to return to the Phils in May.
Michael Massey – Royals: Off to a 3/0/4/.115/.111 start. Looking at that ugly line, his stats are unfortunately pretty much deserved as has a .176 xBA, is striking out 38% of the time, and is walking at a 0.0% clip. This guy needs some more seasoning in the Minors. Maikel Garcia’s promotion date is looming.
Zach Neto – Angels: Speaking of a player needing more minor league seasoning, the Angels, perhaps feeling the pressure of wasting another year of Mike Trout’s prime and dealing with Shohei Ohtani’s imminent free agency, have called up their 2022 draft pick. Somewhere on the West Coast, Jo Adell is probably complaining. Neto’s been 5/27 to start his young major league career and has some funky hitting mechanics. In an optimal scenario, Neto would get off to a hot start and slot at the top of the order, in front of Trout, Ohtani, and Renfroe, but in all likelihood, Neto stays at the bottom of a shallow Angels order.
Jonathan India – Reds: Healthy and raking, India is hitting 18/1/8/.307/.407/4 so far, showing his previous Rookie of the Year form. If he can remain healthy, he’ll be one of the steals of this year’s drafts.
Jorge Polanco – Twins: Activated from the IL this past Friday. He’ll be more valuable in daily moves leagues rather than a weekly league, as the Twins look to load-manage him and give him rest. He’s one of those players that seems way older than he is (29), and unfortunately can’t utilize the DH spot, as the Twins look to keep Bryon Buxton healthy.
Jorge Mateo – Orioles: Among one of the biggest beneficiaries of the new rules changes, Mateo ranks among the league leaders in stolen bases, but has tweaked his batting profile a bit. His ground ball rate is up to over 50% as is his pull rate. While he’s receiving plenty of BABIP fortune similar to Stott, I expect his average to decline some but still remain a valuable player this year.
Have a great week!
