Back in early June, I did a study of early AL and NL Rookie of the Year (ROY) candidates using a proprietary formula I cobbled together with some of my favorite advanced analytics. To estimate a broad Rookie value after two months of the season, I evaluated batted ball statistics (xBA-BA and wRC+), power (ISO, Hard%-Soft%, Barrel%, EV, Max EV and HardHit%), and speed (SBO). The results of that analysis, at the time, suggested the top 3 ROY candidates in each league were:
AL:
- Luke Raley, Tampa Bay Rays
- Josh Jung, Texas Rangers
- Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles
NL:
- Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Jordan Walker, St Louis Cardinals
- Matt Mervis, Chicago Cubs
In addition to listing the top players for each of these analytics, I provided a summary table illustrating the ranks of the top 3 ROY candidates in each league:
Today, I’m going to reconstruct this summary table with current data to see what, if anything, has changed over the past two months. However, I’m not going to fully regurgitate all the background information like I did before. If you want to read the full article or grab a quick refresher on some of these analytics, you can do so HERE. Instead, I’m going to do what our English teachers always said not to – I’m going to go right to the final chapter and see who the guilty party are, or in our case, the ROY winners.
As I stated in the June article, there’s really no right or wrong formula for determining ROY, although some are clearly better than others. I’m particularly fond of the one I’ve put together here but I admit, it’s not perfect by any means. For sake of comparison, I’ll use the same analytics today to reconstruct the table but will expand the table to include the top 5 in each league to give us a broader view of the races. I may throw in a couple other analytics during my analysis as well. Who knows, let’s just see where the data takes us.
So, here we go. Utilizing FanGraphs list of qualified Rookies, the data for all 55 eligible players is thrown into the black box (that is, my handy-dandy spreadsheet) and the following results spit out:
AL ROY RACE:
On the AL side, all 3 of the previous contenders are still in the top 5, although the order has shifted a bit and final ranking scores are more normalized, as we’d expect.
On the strength of 12 HRs and a .523 SLG over the past two months since the first analysis, Gunnar Henderson emerges as the new AL ROY favorite. By comparison, Luke Raley had 4 HRs and a SLG of .421 over one-third fewer games, slipping to 2nd in the AL list.
In the cruelest of twists, Josh Jung’s hopes for a ROY cracked last weekend, along with his thumb, fielding a line drive. He underwent surgery this week and is expected to miss around six weeks, essentially eliminating him from this competition.
The two newcomers to this list, Triston Casas and Yainer Diaz, should not be overlooked. Neither are stolen base threats (goose eggs for both) but have built strong resumes regardless. Both Casas and Diaz have shown monster power lately, each with 11 HRs and SLGs > .500.
NL ROY RACE:
On the NL side, 2 of the previous 3 contenders are still present in the top 5. Shortly after the previous analysis, Matt Mervis was optioned to Iowa when Cody Bellinger rejoined the Cubbies. We all know how that’s turned out for Bellinger and the Cubs so Mervis has remained in AAA ever since. Despite the slow start with the parent club, Mervis has carved out 13 HRs and a .291 in AAA over 63 games. Cubs fans may get a chance to see him again this season on the North Side but his running for the ROY award has long been extinguished.
Corbin Carroll has been the odds-on favorite for the award most of the season but as you see here, he’s dropped to 4th in the running. The reasons are pretty obvious. Comparing the first two months of the season with the last two months (my previous article essentially cuts the current season in half), he has a total of 5 less HRs and a woeful .235 BA since June 10. For reference, his BA peaked at .313 on June 13th but now sits at .273. He’s still swiping bags at a high clip (18 in each half of the season) but the OBP of .309 is suppressing what could have been a truly monster season.
Much to Grey’s delight, Jordan Walker remains in the running for the ROY award. If only the Cardinals were good at baseball, perhaps Walker would get more love. Perhaps the play of the Cardinals this summer is dragging Walker down a bit as well. Regardless, he just hasn’t stepped up to take the NL ROY award. Since June 9, Walker’s slash has slowly receded from .278/.333/.433 to .260/.319/.415. On the HR front though, 6 of his 10 have come this summer. The slight uptick in HR rate does little to diminish the disappointment in the overall HR total. His season-long ISO (.155) is slightly above average, but he’ll do well to work on finding a better balance between his K% (22.9%) and his BB% (6.3) moving forward. At any rate, he has the skills to remain in the ROY race throughout but is becoming a longshot to win.
It’s no surprise to see Elly De La Cruz make this list. If you went back to read my previous article, you’ll note it was written the week he started taking the big leagues by storm. After a tremendous start, he’s cooled off a bit after the All-Star Break, seeing his slash drop from .325/.363/.524 to .262/.313/.453. He’s still a human highlight reel and cheat code on the bases but he’s also having to adjust to MLB pitchers adjusting to him. Should we see another week or two sprinkled with a few more moonshots, besting his record 97.9 mph infield throw or stealing home, he may run away with this thing.
The other two contenders may be a surprise to some. Nolan Jones ascends to the top NL ROY table due to his strong contact skills. As denoted in the table above, he’s top 5 amongst all rookies in Hard%-Soft% (29.5%), Barrel% (13.9%), EV (91.3), and Max EV (115.3). Adding to these strong numbers is a well above-average wRC+ (119) and ISO (.228). He’ll have to overcome the Coors bias and a strong field to win the award, a hill probably too steep to climb, but he should get plenty of votes.
Francisco Alvarez may not end up being the NL ROY but as a consolation prize, he should be named the NY Mets MVP. Alvarez tops our rookie list in ISO (.256) and is top 15 in most of the other Statcast analytics. He’s particularly effective against RHP with 18 HRs and an OPS of .885. The youngster, still only 21 years old, has always been considered advanced at the plate for his age and level so the success should come as no surprise. What’s more impressive to me is how he performed behind the plate with what anyone would consider an intimidating rotation of Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander. The latter two are now gone of course, but there’s no doubt the Mets have their C of the future.
Before I put a bow on this thing, here’s a short list of honorable mentions – those that came in just beyond the top 5 in each league.
I hope you enjoyed the update. As I always say, keep sifting through the numbers and see where it takes you. As we saw here today, sometimes the conclusions are obvious and other times, not so much. No matter what though, it’s always a fun ride.
Follow me on Twitter at @Derek_Favret.
Until next time, my friends!
